Tropics showing signs of life (climate, catastrophic, America, lows)

[aiangel_writer]

So, if and when the storm forms, and moves closer, the computer model lines will then change?

[TheHarvester]

The computer models are constantly being updated with new information and they frequently conflict with prior models. It's still remotely possible that the storm could follow a track vastly outside the lines drawn by the combined forecast models. Weather is chaotic and forecasting the path of a hurricane is very difficult, although computer modeling has become vastly more accurate over the past couple decades.

But even if 200 different models say that the storm will hit between Veracruz and Brownsville, that doesn't rule out the possibility that every model is wrong and some unforeseen event will shift the storm towards Florida. It's all based on probabilities, and the likelihood of such a radical shift is so low that nobody bothers to discuss it. Maybe it's only a one-in-a-million chance. Whereas it's a one-in-a-thousand chance that it will nail Houston or Costa Rica, so those places pay more attention and do a bit of preparation "just in case."

[AnthonySA]

Yes, remember never to take each computer models track as law. I look for them to see what trends they present with each passing run (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z) so that we can get a rough idea of where the storm will move. As you can see with Dean, while it was in Africa -- we were able to deduct this into a Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico storm. This new development looks like it will stay in the Atlantic, and potentially effect the east coast, unless it recurves and moves out to sea.

[aiangel_writer]

thanks guys. I just wish there were some hope for us, this neverending heat and drought has taken it's toll on most everything around here. As bad as I hate to say it, I feel it will take a tropical system to knock us back to some tolerable weather.

[AnthonySA]

Watch what you say We were saying that in Texas last year, and that kept us flooded this year.

[aiangel_writer]

Thanks for the heads up. Maybe you could just figure out a way to er ship some of that rain to us, UPS maybe???

[TheHarvester]

Originally Posted by aiangel_writer

I just wish there were some hope for us, this neverending heat and drought has taken it's toll...

Like AnthonySA said, there is hope for you. Just stick around, no weather pattern persists forever. You'll get your rain, and in the meantime you can see what it's like to live in Odessa, Texas during a "normal" year.

[aiangel_writer]

I really don't want to hurt your feelings, but ya know, I don't like the new color my grass and trees are this year, brown just isn't my color. So, I do think I'll stick to the green, if I can ever find it again.

ps. I really don't like your weather.

[AnthonySA]

Before I go any deeper, this system in the atlantic has a lot more organizing to do before it even becomes a threat. However, looking at a synoptic level of where this storm could hit, I see three different options in terms of potential storm track (assuming this develops):



1: Notice the upper level ridge off the East Coast, if this holds, and this storm moves west -- steering currents would push this storm SW into the Bahamas/Florida

2: The ridge over the SE collapses as a few models project which would leave the east coast at risk for landfall.

3: This storm which is currently moving to the WNW would get caugh around the other ridge and push back east out to sea

Having said that, I buy into options 1 and 2 the most right now. In terms of strength, I give it a 50% chance of organizing to Tropical Depression status, 30% chance of reaching Tropical Storm status, and 10% chance of reaching Hurricane status --- not using conservative figures.

[I LOVE NORTH CAROLINA]

Can someone tell me what else is going on in the tropics?????