Current 1:45pm map showing where the current Watches are and the Meso Discussion zone from SPC. Also temps
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA...SRN VT...SRN
NH...SRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201736Z - 201830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZING WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C. AND BALTIMORE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK AND BOSTON...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE 90S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH INCLUDES SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK...BUT
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A MORE PROMINENT FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN INITIAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST...NOW EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MAINE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...INTO AREAS
NEAR/EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...AS IT CONTINUES A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION.
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE MOST PROMINENT THREAT IN MOST
AREAS.