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What happens when the average temperature is no longer "average". For example, the past 15 years or so that I lived in Sacramento the temperatures always seemed to be anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees above "average" especially in the summer.
In Southern CA (where Im from and currently reside), we have a yearly influx of monsoonal airflow (between late July through September) that spikes the humidity and makes an 85 degree day really uncomfortable. Quite often, heat waves accompany these humid days.
When this happens, all of the local weather forecasters constantly say "we're not used to this type of humidity" or "thundershowers near the coast are extremely rare in the summer". Well, it's no longer rare at all since we get the sticky monsoonal airflow every single summer now and occasionally the valleys and the coast do indeed receive "extremely rare" intermittent rain showers and even thundershowers on an 80 degree day.
Clearly there is some sort of climate change occurring (whether man-made or not) so why are the weather-casters still saying everything is "rare" or the temps are "above average" when its clearly becoming the new standard in our climate?
What happens when the average temperature is no longer "average". For example, the past 15 years or so that I lived in Sacramento the temperatures always seemed to be anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees above "average" especially in the summer.
In Southern CA (where Im from and currently reside), we have a yearly influx of monsoonal airflow (between late July through September) that spikes the humidity and makes an 85 degree day really uncomfortable. Quite often, heat waves accompany these humid days.
When this happens, all of the local weather forecasters constantly say "we're not used to this type of humidity" or "thundershowers near the coast are extremely rare in the summer". Well, it's no longer rare at all since we get the sticky monsoonal airflow every single summer now and occasionally the valleys and the coast do indeed receive "extremely rare" intermittent rain showers and even thundershowers on an 80 degree day.
Clearly there is some sort of climate change occurring (whether man-made or not) so why are the weather-casters still saying everything is "rare" or the temps are "above average" when its clearly becoming the new standard in our climate?
I have always been a fan of changing the normals/averages every 5 years instead of 10 for the same reason.
Although here, really not much has changed, it has become slightly warmer with higher minima and more 30C days.
What I hate is forecasters who seem to not know what our averages are.. when my local BBC London forecast comes on, you would expect the forecaster to know what the typical weather should be.. I've heard 14C be described as a 'muggy night' even though it is not at all, and is close to average. I have also heard a mostly cloudy 20C day in July be labelled as 'a nice day' even though that is cool
In my country the meteorologists are very conservative and only changes normals every 30 years!!
So we're still using the old 1961-90 normal!
Completely misleading here at the higher latitudes, where temperatures are going up faster than at the middle latitudes. And the 1960's had som really cold winters.
Especially misleading up in the high Arctic Svalbard Archipelago, where the Sea ice has retreated, making especially winters much milder than before (as the open water now can warm the air).
Even much farther south, in my city, which is off course still high latitude, I would have to search some time to find a year or even a month as cold as the "normal"
In my country the meteorologists are very conservative and only changes normals every 30 years!!
So we're still using the old 1961-90 normal!
Completely misleading here at the higher latitudes, where temperatures are going up faster than at the middle latitudes. And the 1960's had som really cold winters.
Especially misleading up in the high Arctic Svalbard Archipelago, where the Sea ice has retreated, making especially winters much milder than before (as the open water now can warm the air).
Even much farther south, in my city, which is off course still high latitude, I would have to search some time to find a year or even a month as cold as the "normal"
indeed. the 1961-1990 normals are obsolete to the point of being directly misleading. according to SMHI, they've already calculated the new 1981-2010 normals, but say they won't release them publicly. what kind of reasoning is that?
indeed. the 1961-1990 normals are obsolete to the point of being directly misleading. according to SMHI, they've already calculated the new 1981-2010 normals, but say they won't release them publicly. what kind of reasoning is that?
Do you reckon places like Nikkaluokta, Kvikkjokk, Naimakka and Karesuando will still keep their -20C lows in January and February
Yes .. it's funny when the local weather-casters are still spewing out dated nonsense. Most of us who are weather savvy (and have been around a while) shake our head in semi-disgust.
For example, the past 15 years or so that I lived in Sacramento the temperatures always seemed to be anywhere between 5 and 10 degrees above "average" especially in the summer.
Just have to correct this.. Doesn't take much to look back and see data. Whats 5-10 above average? The max temp? Average temp?
Sacramento average temp in July 2010 was below normal.. This is just one.. August was as well that year.
Basically Summer Average from 2006-2010 went downhill (cooler). Since have gone up (but some months normal or below).
You will amost always be either above or below normal no matter what you set the normal at. Personally, I think they should a much longer period than 30 years, and that it should be updated every year. The current 30 year period used in Canada (1981-2010) makes December the coldest month of the year around here even though any other 30 year period shows January as the coldest month. The next 30 year period will likely switch back to January because this was a one-off sort of anomaly. If they would pick 40, 50, or 100 years for the average, then December would not be the coldest month.
well, it's a good initiative and so on. but what struck me the most, is this excerpt
"As with meteorologists in other countries, Norwegian meteorologists today belive the weather in the period 1961-1990 to be "normal".
this ignorance is just staggering. i refuse to belive that they (or the SMHI for that matter) haven't recognized which normal period germany, france, russia, the uk, the netherlands, belgium, finland, the united states and canada uses. i think they're lying actually.
as i've stated earlier, the WMO's directive of using rolling 30 year averages is nothing new
^ Are you saying they like to use the 1961-1990 period so that most months are above average, and thus the weather reports sound more interesting and scary?
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