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Well, as I did last year I will again this year: I am praying every night to the weather gods that you have the coldest summer on record(cloudy too). This is payment for your constant hoping for extreme cold. Well, I want you to have extreme cold this summer. Here is hoping for the coldest summer in Chicago history.
Only 5 months away.
Highly unlikely that we will have 3 cool summers in a row. In fact, JB tweeted a while back, that he expects the Midwest to have a hot summer in 2015
As for the upcoming cold spell.... It's still 10 days away
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As you can see, the contours will be directed from the Arctic region into eastern North America (very cold), while a ridge sets up over the northeastern Pacific (mild).
This really comes as no surprise as the stratospheric warming event that I talked about early in January should lead to a much farther south push of Arctic air late in January.
The models have also trended much more negative with teleconnections such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Eastern Pacific Oscillation for the period from January 20th to the 24th compared to what they showed just a few days ago.
Highly unlikely that we will have 3 cool summers in a row. In fact, JB tweeted a while back, that he expects the Midwest to have a hot summer in 2015
The consecutive coin-flip probability principle comes into play here; the chances for a hot or cool summer this year are similar to any other year. That's not to say that you won't get a hot summer, but it's not particularly likely merely because the past two were cool. I've always been puzzled, however, how it seems to be so easy in that part of the world to have multiple consecutive hot summers and so difficult to have multiple consecutive cool summers, and going back through the 20th century, not just recently .
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Originally Posted by Cambium
Mike Masco from Baltimore area. Take note that winter wasn't big for New England. Just Mid Atlantic.
"Snow analog to compare to this year would be '78-79 . NO snow in Dec..some in Jan ..ended season above 40"! "
As for the upcoming cold spell.... It's still 10 days away
As you can see, the contours will be directed from the Arctic region into eastern North America (very cold), while a ridge sets up over the northeastern Pacific (mild).
I was going to post the actual current setup and show something but will use that map you posted real quick.
Looks to me the trough is finally strong enough this month to squash that friggin SE ridge! Finally!
That in turn popped it up more in the Atlantic. Lets thank the Western Ridge popping north to help the trough dig south in the East.
And here's the actual current set up. Storm East of Hudson Bay. 540 Damn over NY (not that cold for Jan). Snow squalls off the Lakes.
But notice there's no 585+ Dam over Florida anymore. The atmosphere is getting pushed south. A pattern I would of loved to see in December. Not mid January. But MAYBE this means a 2nd half true winter with cold AND snow? We'll see. Need the sub tropical jet to meet up with the Polar jet
Now if we can only get that huge Greenland block to setup.
Models pointing to a Negative NAO. Look how far north the Ridge goes! Greenland! This not only will slow storms down a bit but also lock in and push down arctic air more into the East.
Highly unlikely that we will have 3 cool summers in a row. In fact, JB tweeted a while back, that he expects the Midwest to have a hot summer in 2015
The true merit of a summer is in the dewpoints, and nothing has even come close to 2011 here. I don't think there's any way to predict that long-range.
Sunday we're getting 1"+ of liquid which will be Rain
Wednesday we're getting all snow but its less than 1/4" liquid.
24th Storm??? ... POOF. VANISHED. GOODBYE. ADIOS. GONE. Now showing a clipper or nothing. Will it come back?
Is it over yet?
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