Eastern U.S. Soaker Storms/Front/Hurricane Sept 29-Oct 5, 2015 (Canada, freezing, most)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

Could Joaquin end up into the Carolinas instead of NY/NJ? Pressure flowlines looks like they might go toward the Carolinas.

technically could right now but its not ready to move. Its like its waiting for the front and other systems along the front to move across U.S first..

Wanna see scary as far as movement? Hit the FWD button and play the latest loop. Watch what Joaquin does at the end of this models run.

Starts curling right into us. Looks like its captured by another low or trough like Sandy. What a mess for forecasters!

GFDL joaquin11l 2015092906 Forecast slp Java Animation

[nei]

Meterological bomb into a category 2 aiming at Cape Cod? Weird looking curve there. I should pull up a SST map of the North Atlantic. Hurricane Bob is the most recent storm to have a similar track though not quite that curve and be at hurricane intensity.

[Wrigley1986]

Wait. Did I watch that correctly? This mess could become hurricane strength?

Or am I a total clueless wish-caster?

[Cambium]

We should focus on the Upper Levels.. look at that block in the Atlantic there. Gees.

https://twitter.com/RyanBretonWX/sta...56288722579456

NWS NY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE PHASING
SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED

AN ALMOST BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS...AND A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES

STALLED FRONT REMAINS NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS LIKELY AT LEAST OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. MIGHT NEED
TO EVENTUALLY BUMP UP POPS ELSEWHERE TO LIKELY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK AND PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH IT...CONVERGENCE WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN.

REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF JOAQUIN. WILL THEREFORE CAP POPS
AT 50% FOR NOW DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS COULD EVENTUALLY NEED
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH
THE ASSUMPTION THAT JOAQUIN IS NO LONGER A FACTOR BY THIS TIME..

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...28040919818240

[nei]

very aggressive as in a high amount of rain? Or higher than other models?

[nei]

flood watch statement by local weather (Boston office) service

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>012-014-026-291630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0003.150930T0600Z-151001T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREEN FIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL.. .LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...AY ER
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH
PER HOUR AT TIMES. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

* FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS IS THE
GREATEST THREAT. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH FAST RESPONSE
TIMES ARE ALSO SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. WIDESPREAD MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING
SHOULD REMAIN IN THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by nei

very aggressive as in a high amount of rain? Or higher than other models?

Good question


I think he means widespread heavy rains


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...28580403761152

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

very aggressive as in a high amount of rain? Or higher than other models?

Yeah not sure why he said that about the Euro ensembles since the GFS and Canadian show much more. I assume its just an aggressive approach no matter what and maybe its the only model he prefers or agrees with for now.

4-6" seems more reality right now vs the 10"+ with the others.
Reminds me of Irene a bit with the amount of moisture but weak Tropical system.

Also some are saying this looks like some 1950s storms

Wonder what analogs look like

[moxiegal]

Ahhh...so THAT'S what is going on out there! DH and I looked the other day, to see what might be driving this low we are experiencing. Neither of us realized it was another low. Last I saw, it was TS Ida out there.