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Old 03-03-2015, 05:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Debated started this thread but here we go...

Explaination using the NAM model

Tonight 7pm EST, front having trouble lift north of central NJ due to several reasons. Rain in Pittsburgh but it starts as snow Philly northward this afternoon. Then...



Overnight front finally pushes north and we warm up so 1-3" of snow that fell now changes to rain. Vermont should stay all snow.



Then the fun begins... On Wednesday the front pushes East with Arctic air behind it but the kicker is the shortwaves developing along the front! Notice there is moisture on the cold side of it!



Then BOOM, look at all that moisture inside the cold air. That's all snow from Kentucky to Boston and HEAVY! 4-10" of snow very possible Wednesday night and Thursday

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Old 03-03-2015, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Yup, even Texas and the south getting wintry stuff. Last month for it?


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Old 03-03-2015, 10:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Worse Case Senario for Wed night and Thursday.

Max Snowfall total forecast.

https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/s...328001/photo/1


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Old 03-03-2015, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Current Satellite, Temps and Radar. Snow line in Eastern PA. Temps in the 20s NYC northward. Normal max is in the 40s up to Albany and even MA. Seems like we're struggling into 30s lately.

It's snowing heavy in areas of Michign and PA right now. New snow adding to the pack,

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Old 03-03-2015, 10:21 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Any chance some might make it here? Also, do you think trains will be running in southern Connecticut ok Thursday morning?
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Any chance some might make it here?
I see you are on the very northern fringe! A shift 50 miles and you'll be in the big totals. A shift 25 miles north and you'll get some. For now consensus saying 1-3" for you with the second waves. You'l get 2-4" before the ice/rain then you may be too far to get the snow return Thurs

Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Also, do you think trains will be running in southern Connecticut ok Thursday morning?
Schools I've learned how they operate. Buses and Trains I have absolutely no clue what they do or when they delay.

But IF IF IF it happens to pan out the way NAM and few other models show, I would assume there would be issues OR people just wouldn't be able to be on the roads to get to the train station anyway.
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Old 03-03-2015, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Current Radar, metars and 850mb temps. +10C 850mb over Kentucky (surface in the 50s!) That's a Spring look right there with the mid levels having that kind of warmth around.

Freezing line at 4500' still down near DC slowly pushing north.

Truly amazing that with a southerly flow the air is staying below freezing north of Philly. That will change as we move on through the night

You can see who's reporting snow just getting into NJ now. Virga ahead of it (not reaching ground)

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Old 03-03-2015, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tropical Pacific Moisture into Arctic Air. Hello?

Bernie Video.

Philly's biggest snowstorm of the season coming. Richmond is in. Lexington Kentucky is in.

He thinks north NYC only 1-3, he says watch this trend south!

Gotta watch the video.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAmq...ature=youtu.be
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Old 03-03-2015, 12:49 PM
 
Location: West Orange, NJ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Worse Case Senario for Wed night and Thursday.

Max Snowfall total forecast.

https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/s...328001/photo/1

I really wish there was one of these for the rest of NJ ugh. Looking at it thought it looks like 11inches is my worst case
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Old 03-03-2015, 01:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcip View Post
I really wish there was one of these for the rest of NJ ugh. Looking at it thought it looks like 11inches is my worst case
We might need a sticky thread on the other office forecast maps.. I try mention this all the time but it gets tiring sometimes. Sorry. LOL The rest of NJ is in NWS Upton's zone.

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Upton, NY


Current Radar and Metars.

Raining and Ice on one side of PA, Snowing on the other...for now. Would LOVE some OBS's in this thread from you guys.

Still Virga over CT but now Newark and Newburgh reporting snow (light!) so it's ready to fall over us. Right on schedule "after" 3pm

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