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Up to 78F here at 2 PM. Looks like a pretty good line of storms headed this way, but only a marginal severe risk.
Quote:
...Southeast Texas to Louisiana...
A north/south-oriented band of composite-outflow-related convection
will continue to slowly progress eastward across far southeast Texas
into Louisiana through the afternoon and evening. While
line-preceding cloud cover remains semi-thick late this morning,
some pockets of stronger heating may occur ahead of the line this
afternoon and allow for at least a modest intensification of storms
along and immediately ahead of the line. Furthermore, low-level
winds may modestly strengthen by early evening as these storms shift
eastward across Louisiana. These factors suggest that a few storms
could produce locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado this
afternoon into tonight, but the overall risk is currently expected
to remain relatively marginal and isolated in nature.
I do think we'll pay the price one way or another for this unseasonably warm weather at some point this spring; whether it's a late season snowfall, cold snap, a week of cold rain in May, etc.
I don't want the "coldest March on record" by any means (I'd prefer if the coldest period was restricted to winter, and the hottest restricted to summer. I don't like when seasons hijack each other!) but I would like a below average March to offset this extremely warm February because at this rate, we'll be hitting high 90s throughout April!
Mesoscale discussion just issued, but watch unlikely.
Quote:
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows persistent southeasterly
flow off the north-central Gulf of Mexico, contributing to both
onshore advection of upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints, as well as some
enhancement to the low-level shear profile. As a semi-organized
band of storms continues crossing western Louisiana, a weakly
heating/destabilizing airmass (characterized by around 750 J/kg
mixed-layer cape) is contributing to some increase in updraft
strength -- both within the line, and with isolated showers
developing ahead of the main band of storms.
While potential for additional destabilization is limited, low-level
and deep-layer shear are both sufficient to support a few stronger
cells, and at least weak/mid-level rotation. Indeed, a few cells
immediately ahead of the main convective band have exhibited weak
rotation per area wsr-88d data, and this will likely continue over
the next several hours. Overall risk, however, appears likely at
this time to remain marginal, and thus likely not requiring watch
issuance.
Even Montreal is projected to reach 14c this Saturday! From a place that has similar winters to Moscow, that is impressive. Even higher than Toronto is projected to reach Quebec City only projected for 7c, so looks like the warmth will be limited to the south of 46 latitude here
Windsor projected for 19c! Nicest climate in Canada? Nicest climate in Canada!
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This pattern will flip eventually, a good example was 2004 when we had a cold February, followed by our hottest March on record, then April ended up being average, which ironically meant March and April had about the same mean temp that year (around 72°F/22.2°C)
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