Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm legitimately wondering at this point whether it would be possible for the weather/gov sites of places like Austin, San Antonio, Lake Charles, Jacksonville, Gainesville, etc to wait until January, even well into January, for a freeze like last year. All have average lows well above freezing so are likely going to be able to take even the worst of the forecasts without a problem.
It's really far out but at this point I woul bet on Jacksonville making it through and Austin not. Gainesville maybe, but less likely than Jacksonville
It's really far out but at this point I woul bet on Jacksonville making it through and Austin not. Gainesville maybe, but less likely than Jacksonville
I think whether Gainesville airport will make it through depends on how advective the freeze is. Yes it is a bit less likely than Jacksonville airport to get through a radiational freeze, but seems to be better able to handle the advective freezes because it is somewhat further south.
The late season bad freeze just this past March 13 is a fabulous example. Because it was so advective Jacksonville airport bottomed out at -1.1 Celsius, but Gainesville airport just barely got by at 0.6 Celsius and ended up getting a February 15 last freeze instead of March 13.
Agree that I don't see Austin getting past that forecast if it stands though. I can't overstate how much I really hope it doesn't as long as that means no bad surprises later on.
I have to say though I'm more than a little concerned about Tallahassee FSU, given its forecast and that forecast model.
It's the same situation between it and the cold hole airport as Jacksonville/Gainesville. Advective freezes greatly reduce the elevation/urban heat island discrepancy, during the March freeze this year the difference between the 2 was only around 0.3 Celsius and that's also by how much it managed to get past that freeze (so by even less than Gainesville).
All but 2 Decembers since recording started for FSU in June 2014 didn't get freezes, so a freeze this December would actually be rarer than the airport waiting until December for a freeze within that period! I'm thinking that's probably due to not many advective December freezes within that time period, like the one that may happen.
Looks like the southern coast (Charleston, Savannah, Fernandina Beach, St Augustine, Jacksonville Beach, Brunswick, Beaufort...) might have a slight chance of surviving this? Maybe New Orleans too? Also looks like Can't Think of Username will have to monitor more Western US locations next year.
Looks like the southern coast (Charleston, Savannah, Fernandina Beach, St Augustine, Jacksonville Beach, Brunswick, Beaufort...) might have a slight chance of surviving this? Maybe New Orleans too?
I hope you're right. What really annoyed me was that all those outside Florida seemed JUST inside the freeze line.
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph
Also looks like Can't Think of Username will have to monitor more Western US locations next year.
Yep, didn't think of these locations until too late. I'll have to put them on next year's list:
-Death Valley
-Denver
-Las Cruces
-Flagstaff
-Salt Lake City
Speaking of the Western US. Most of the recent first freezes have been over there (Cape Hatteras was the only one in the Eastern US).
Dec 12 - Crescent City, CA
Dec 14 - Coos Bay, OR (last place standing in PNW?)
Dec 14 - Tucson, AZ
Dec 15 - Dryden, TX (furthest north surviving location in Rio Grande Valley is now Laredo, TX?)
There were many close calls in the Colorado Valley too, with Las Vegas, Blythe and Needles all coming within 1C of freezing.
Fresno and Bakersfield are still alive, despite most of the Central Valley falling four weeks ago.
Speaking of the Western US. Most of the recent first freezes have been over there (Cape Hatteras was the only one in the Eastern US).
Dec 12 - Crescent City, CA
Dec 14 - Coos Bay, OR (last place standing in PNW?)
Dec 14 - Tucson, AZ
Dec 15 - Dryden, TX (furthest north surviving location in Rio Grande Valley is now Laredo, TX?)
There were many close calls in the Colorado Valley too, with Las Vegas, Blythe and Needles all coming within 1C of freezing.
Fresno and Bakersfield are still alive, despite most of the Central Valley falling four weeks ago.
Got to add Las Vegas next year too, thanks for the reminder. It's too bad I didn't think of it this year, but I won't add it as it's just not the same when you're this late in the season.
Edit: Also took a look at your map and you might want to unmark Destin. No freeze on November 18, that was 5 Celsius.
See weather.gov/mob
Got to add Las Vegas next year too, thanks for the reminder. It's too bad I didn't think of it this year, but I won't add it as it's just not the same when you're this late in the season.
Edit: Also took a look at your map and you might want to unmark Destin. No freeze on November 18, that was 5 Celsius.
See weather.gov/mob
So why do weatherspark and weatherunderground both agree Destin-Fort Walton Beach Airport was 29/30F?
I'm pretty sure I originally checked on NOAA's hourly/last 3 day report too... (even though it's no longer available for that date).
Also Pensacola Airport gives 33F, Mobile 30F, Crestview 29F, Mobile Brookley 31F, Niceville 29F. Not sure the exact location but Niceville is only a mile from Destin-Fort Walton AP, hard to believe it was 12F colder, and not just that day but 10F cooler at night for the month as a whole.
Is it possible they accidentally swapped the data with some other airport like Hurlburt Field or Destin Executive? I mean their average low for Nov 2022 is warmer than for Dauphin Island...
2022 November average high/low according to their site.
75.5F/59.2F: Destin-Fort Walton Beach AP
68.8F/57.0F: Dauphin Island
73.8F/55.3F: Pensacola AP
72.2F/52.5F: Mobile Brookley AP
72.0F/51.4F: Mobile Regional AP
72.9F/49.4F: Niceville
74.7F/48.4F: Crestview AP
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
, but I won't add it as it's just not the same when you're this late in the season.
