We Now Have the Worst Unemployment Rate Since the Great Depression (jobs, companies)
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I find it amazing that it's only 14.7%, with so many stores and restaurants being shut down, and it's only 4.7% more than in the 2008 recession. Must be a lot of small business owners not working that cannot file for unemployment so are not counted.
May report will see 20%+.
Fed survey is done by 15th of the month (4-15). Much of it done first week (4-8 or so). Its a lagging indicator here, as there were tons laid off last 2 weeks April also.
The bigger concern should be how many jobs are NOT coming back? How many movie theaters will close permanently? Mall/retail stores/gyms? Bars/restaurants? Consider the "lost sales" that won't happen. Hair salon closed for 2 months, people aren't coming in for an "extra" haircut for the one they missed. I played golf with a dentist, closed 7 weeks and he expects 90% of his lost work will not happen. Nobody will come in for a extra cleaning, if you had plans for cosmetic dental work and lost your job you certainly won't get the dental work done.
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I'd bet half lost jobs are permanently gone.
Vacations with hotel stays, plane rides, not gonna occur for years. A family of 4, 2 small kids, not going to risk a confined plane ride or beds slept on by 100 others that year.
Corps will use remote meetings far, far more post covid than ever before.
Theatres are a petri dish, like mash transit, any cough will send the crowd running.
Bars-oh sure, we have the 6 inch rule at play. DOA.
Malls-online just quickened malls demise courtesy of covid.
CDC policy is to stay home from work if you test positive. Your spouse too. In the upcoming months, many more people may test positive. If you test positive, I cannot permit you to work - even if it means you'll be jobless. Not sure how unemployment or (the next) stimulus will come into play. COVID does not discriminate (based on age) when it comes to positive tests. It's an equal opportunity infect-er. Think about that next time The Other Guy is not wearing a mask. YOU are the one that will be jobless.
The point is - although we are opening up again right now - if you're able to save up a few week's pay, you really should do it, at this "2nd chance" opportunity. There's at least a possibility that unemployment numbers go up - and not down - as we re-open.
CDC policy is to stay home from work if you test positive. Your spouse too. In the upcoming months, many more people may test positive. If you test positive, I cannot permit you to work - even if it means you'll be jobless. Not sure how unemployment or (the next) stimulus will come into play. COVID does not discriminate (based on age) when it comes to positive tests. It's an equal opportunity infect-er. Think about that next time The Other Guy is not wearing a mask. YOU are the one that will be jobless.
The point is - although we are opening up again right now - if you're able to save up a few week's pay, you really should do it, at this "2nd chance" opportunity. There's at least a possibility that unemployment numbers go up - and not down - as we re-open.
I think it will definitely the fastest recovery in history but having the fastest recovery is easy when you also had the fastest dive. Actual full recovery will take some time.
But I don't think life has changed permanently, at least not many things. Movie theaters and traditional malls were already struggling. There are a lot of businesses that were already struggling and COVID just pushed them over the edge. They'll blame COVID but years of poor decisions is what ultimately did them in.
Vacations will happen again and it's not going to be years. Some people certainly will hold back but I believe the overwhelming majority will go.
I will also add this...anyone with a job is valued. It doesn't matter if they are a cashier at Taco Bell or a white collar. Any one of those jobs is better than being on unemployment. All of those cashiers that were laid off also work for companies that support higher wage jobs. If the cashiers aren't collecting revenue then you don't have a job either.
The one thing that will come back? Bars. People always drink more during a recession/depression.
Much of the drinking will be Natural Ice or Milwaukee's Best at home.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960
I'd bet half lost jobs are permanently gone.
Vacations with hotel stays, plane rides, not gonna occur for years. A family of 4, 2 small kids, not going to risk a confined plane ride or beds slept on by 100 others that year.
Corps will use remote meetings far, far more post covid than ever before.
Theatres are a petri dish, like mash transit, any cough will send the crowd running.
Bars-oh sure, we have the 6 inch rule at play. DOA.
Malls-online just quickened malls demise courtesy of covid.
Life has changed. Permanently in many regards.
Malls and movie theaters were having issues pre-pandemic. I would agree with this.
Bars may be DOA, if distancing is practiced and enforced. It won't be because it can't be. Single and unattached people are going to be mega horny coming out of lockdown. They will need to not social distance in order to get laid. Bars will be a part of that equation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grad_student200
I am middle-aged and got fed up with recessions.
So, the economy is cruel - one should always be preparing for the next recession with training, savings, etc. The other "preparation" was that I did not get married. I am glad I avoided marriage in this recession and pandemic. It would make it that much harder.
You did the right thing avoiding marriage. Marriage is often a bad deal for men on a lot of levels. The married guys I know right now with job losses and pay cuts are having strained interactions within their marriages. There's a reason why Coronavirus will be the impetus for a lot of divorces.
Its cheaper(And safer) to drink at home. Bars will be bankrupting left and right. Theatres? Mehhh You dont have the same experience watching the movies at home as you would at the theatre but who cares. Its also cheaper watching movies at home.
Its cheaper(And safer) to drink at home. Bars will be bankrupting left and right. Theatres? Mehhh You dont have the same experience watching the movies at home as you would at the theatre but who cares. Its also cheaper watching movies at home.
I'm more optimistic about bars than theaters. The cheaper factor of movies at home will help since there's no money to be spent.
People will be willing to go to bars to find sex. That's the inherent advantage that will keep bars alive. There's no justifiable reason to go to a movie theater. When money is tight due to a lack of employment, tough decisions are made. Economics is the study of scarce resources.
From an employment standpoint, having bartender or movie theater jobs is not as good as having manufacturing jobs. I'd rather the U.S. focus on factory jobs for our high school graduates rather than McJobs in movie theaters.
In Las Vegas, some bartenders make close to six figures per year, which is better than a lot of white collar workers in that area.
Bars will be a breeding ground for the virus though (especially once Summer is over) . As far as sex.. Wasn't it found in Semen? Going to the bar for sex is like going to look for low grade HIV.
The quicker they get a vaccine, the better off will be. I dont think this thing is going away. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a deadlier mutation of it either. Society is probably ok until September, then dormancy is over.
Bars will not die. Trust history in this one - even when they outlawed alcohol they just went underground.
I never doubted that bars would die. They are a necessary part of the equation for finding sex. Sex is a basic human need. Bars can be used without the assistance of technology for finding sex. They are also part of app process for finding sex. People swipe right, text, meet at a bar, and hope to have sex. Even if two people meet at a grocery store or at the gym, a bar will likely be involved for a first date.
The serving alcohol part of it helps in reducing inhibitions.
This means there will be employment at bars.
Last edited by PJSaturn; 05-12-2020 at 04:22 PM..
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