Will china become a superpower? (2014, purchasing, calculation)
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China is already a superpower, and its rise is continuing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noggin of Rum
I would side with the view that China is already a superpower. However, this is as much due to the decline of the USA and EU as it is due to China's tangible gains. In my opinion, the decline of the USA internationally and domestically is probably the most significant global political trend of the past decade.
That decline seems to be accelerating in recent years.
* The recent debacle over military intervention in Syria, in which the USA was effectively abandoned by its closest political allies.
* China and Russia not only publicly blowing off demands for the return of Ed Snowden, but countering such demands by their own demands that the USA answer for its spying activity.
* Fractured diplomatic ties with South America following the de facto mid-air kidnapping of the Bolivian president, which led to Brazil recently rejecting a Boeing deal for procurement of fighter jets.
* Various international trade agreements excluding the USD, with more planned down the road.
* A fractious, scandal-ridden administration ... Benghazi-gate, NSA spying, Fast and Furious among many others.
* Several high profile military embarrassments in the past decade.
* Ongoing destruction of its middle class, exponentially increasing total debt, decaying infrastructure.
* Delusional, manipulated financial markets that have uncoupled from reality and pioneering an all-new parallel dimension of bubbly stupidity, thanks to $85 billion per month in POMO monopoly money.
* A millennial generation poisoned by plummeting educational standards, and the type of weak secular liberalism that is now considered fashionable among ignorant teenagers.
* Incompetent, third world-standard rollout of the Affordable Care Act.
The USA looks to me today as just another world power. Still influential, but somewhat in denial as to how it stands in the world.
I would argue that the USA is also becoming more powerful, but its power is growing more slowly than China's. Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are demonstrating the limits of American power, but those limits already existed--they simply were not tested so often. The damage to the American economy and middle class were real, but the economy is recovering and there are opportunities to repair the middle class. Millenials are more educated than any prior generation of Americans. Other countries, including China, are becoming more educated as well. There will be considerable competition for jobs amongst skilled labor for the foreseeable future.
I believe that the EU, also, is becoming more powerful, and likely at a higher rate than the United States (primarily because of the deepening ties between member states, though those ties remain fragile).
Like the Great Depression before it, the Great Recession is causing lots of short-term pain, but does not change the reality of long-term economic growth in the developed and developing worlds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamford
Perhaps by then we will have new manufacturing methods, or perhaps other countries such as India may take advantage of this situation or perhaps we may see some African countries prosper.
The rise of Africa is underway, and there is a great competition between the US, EU, and China to be the primary benefactors of the rising African economies. China is well-positioned in this competition because it offers money, capital goods, and diplomatic cover without an overt threat that disobedience will result in military punishment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
I don't think the change in policy is going to come with that substantial of a baby boom for China for a number of reasons.
Anyhow, I don't think China will be a superpower in the sense that the British Empire, the US or the USSR were superpowers in the ability to so quickly project their power into all parts of the world. The US seems to have that ability increasingly whittle such that maybe it, too, won't be a superpower in the near future but rather one among several great powers. I do not see China being able to have the same kind of hegemony in the near future that the US does/did.
China's military growth will enable it to project military power worldwide. I think that the more interesting projection of power will be China's diplomatic power--China is gradually building its own status as a global power that does not rely on the reach of its military power and that serves as a counterweight to American bellicosity. American hegemony was a myth, and there have always been limits on America's ability to influence world affairs.
I would side with the view that China is already a superpower. However, this is as much due to the decline of the USA and EU as it is due to China's tangible gains. In my opinion, the decline of the USA internationally and domestically is probably the most significant global political trend of the past decade.
That decline seems to be accelerating in recent years.
* The recent debacle over military intervention in Syria, in which the USA was effectively abandoned by its closest political allies.
* China and Russia not only publicly blowing off demands for the return of Ed Snowden, but countering such demands by their own demands that the USA answer for its spying activity.
* Fractured diplomatic ties with South America following the de facto mid-air kidnapping of the Bolivian president, which led to Brazil recently rejecting a Boeing deal for procurement of fighter jets.
* Various international trade agreements excluding the USD, with more planned down the road.
* A fractious, scandal-ridden administration ... Benghazi-gate, NSA spying, Fast and Furious among many others.
* Several high profile military embarrassments in the past decade.
* Ongoing destruction of its middle class, exponentially increasing total debt, decaying infrastructure.
* Delusional, manipulated financial markets that have uncoupled from reality and pioneering an all-new parallel dimension of bubbly stupidity, thanks to $85 billion per month in POMO monopoly money.
* A millennial generation poisoned by plummeting educational standards,and the type of weak secular liberalism that is now considered fashionable among ignorant teenagers. * Incompetent, third world-standard rollout of the Affordable Care Act.
The USA looks to me today as just another world power. Still influential, but somewhat in denial as to how it stands in the world.
One of the biggest factors is that couples in which one person was an only child will be able to have two children. Since a majority of Chinese were only children, this means that most couples will now be able to have two children.
Japan is going to be f'ed in the near future. China's birthrate slowed but was still in the positive, and that only because of a government policy... and one which was quite unpopular. Because of this and also because of China's status as an authoritarian, single-party state, they are in a situation in which they can identify a problem (looming net deficit of millions women, aging population and decreased labor force) and directly manipulate circumstances for a solution.
Japan's birth rate has slowed and gone negative due to a variety of effects, many of them social constructs and realities rather than direct government mandates. The government can go ahead and tell people to churn out adorable little babies for the sake of the nation all they want, but when both parents are working 10-14 hour days to pay to live in an apartment barely big enough for the two of them and an ever-growing portion of the population simply doesn't have a partner due to the same exhaustive work culture and skyrocketing COL, you've got a serious problem on your hands that would require government intervention and a paradigm shift in work culture that would result in total disarray. Blame the free market...
It also doesn't bold that well for Japan since most of the young Japanese in their 20s have essentially stopped mingling around for the most part if you know what I mean...
China is already a superpower, and its rise is continuing.
I would argue that the USA is also becoming more powerful, but its power is growing more slowly than China's. Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are demonstrating the limits of American power, but those limits already existed--they simply were not tested so often. The damage to the American economy and middle class were real, but the economy is recovering and there are opportunities to repair the middle class. Millenials are more educated than any prior generation of Americans. Other countries, including China, are becoming more educated as well. There will be considerable competition for jobs amongst skilled labor for the foreseeable future.
I believe that the EU, also, is becoming more powerful, and likely at a higher rate than the United States (primarily because of the deepening ties between member states, though those ties remain fragile).
Like the Great Depression before it, the Great Recession is causing lots of short-term pain, but does not change the reality of long-term economic growth in the developed and developing worlds.
The rise of Africa is underway, and there is a great competition between the US, EU, and China to be the primary benefactors of the rising African economies. China is well-positioned in this competition because it offers money, capital goods, and diplomatic cover without an overt threat that disobedience will result in military punishment.
China's military growth will enable it to project military power worldwide. I think that the more interesting projection of power will be China's diplomatic power--China is gradually building its own status as a global power that does not rely on the reach of its military power and that serves as a counterweight to American bellicosity. American hegemony was a myth, and there have always been limits on America's ability to influence world affairs.
The hyperpower is a theoretical state that has not existed and probably never will.
yes, besides everything else just and FYI they have been buying properties all over the US since 2009 in massive amounts and not one house blocks of homes. My clients are 40% Chinese they have been paying my bills and building up my retirement. They already are a superpower. Does anyone know how much money we owe the Chinese in Debt?
As of 2011, at least $1.2 trillion of US debt is owned by China, according to the treasury at least.
Saying that Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan merely 'tested' preexisting limitations of the USA is just speculative and fails to understand how the global power prestige game is played. Humiliation of this kind entails a loss of prestige. Have too many of such episodes in a row, and you have a loss of political leverage, fallout or weakening of pre-existing diplomatic ties, and the economic ramifications that follow further down the line.
Last edited by Grigoriachel; 01-12-2014 at 12:57 AM..
As of 2011, at least $1.2 trillion of US debt is owned by China, according to the treasury at least.
Saying that Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan merely 'tested' preexisting limitations of the USA is just speculative and fails to understand how the global power prestige game is played. Humiliation of this kind entails a loss of prestige. Have too many of such episodes in a row, and you have a loss of political leverage, fallout or weakening of pre-existing diplomatic ties, and the economic ramifications that follow further down the line.
I tend to think that Chinese ownership of US sovereign debt is an example of the economic ties between our nations and not in itself as an example of relative power.
I think that the inability of the United States to use military invasion followed by nation-building to control events in a foreign nation is a pretty clear trend in the post-WWII era. But that is a projection of power that no State in the modern and postmodern era has deployed with continued success. I think that prestige--namely a nation's influence on others--is a result of that nation's power, not the reverse.
While some might argue that the power of the United States is diminished by the last decade-plus of events in the Middle East, I tend to think that our failed wars haven't really changed much in terms of the competition amongst the great powers compared to where we were circa 2000. Syria remains in the Sino-Russian sphere of influence, as do Iran and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Jordan are still pretty firmly in the US sphere. Yemen and Lebanon are contested.
The main changes in the region are on the periphery (Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan) and/or are related more to popular revolutionary movements (Egypt again, Libya) than they are to the wars. And from today's vantage point, Afghanistan looks most likely to drift back to where it once was when the war ends, a largely isolated and forgotten country that has the potential to rise again on the world's scene as a major source of conflict.
If the balance of powers in the Middle East is to change, the causes will still probably be Israel/Palestine or potential rapprochement between Iran and the United States. If US diplomatic ties weaken, it will probably be due to new ties forging with Iran, thus causing Saudi Arabia and Israel (especially) to question the wisdom of placing their support with the United States.
China is already a superpower,even if the chinese level of education is not at the western standard but it's just a matter of time.
Many people in the western countries also lag behind in the education,the last decade showed that asians countries fare the best in education (Singapore,Korea,Taiwan)
This. There will be a couple of great powers - but not one superpower overshadowing everybody else.
The United States of America will always be a superpower. Right now, the Middle East, it is estimated that the oil supply will run out in thirty to thirty five years. but not exceeding forty years. What happens then, no more oil. but, this is the cool part. well the cool part for us, us Americans, i believe its north and south dakota, wyoming, in that general area, is where geologist found enough oil to sustain the worlds supply and demand.
As of 2011, at least $1.2 trillion of US debt is owned by China, according to the treasury at least.
Saying that Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan merely 'tested' preexisting limitations of the USA is just speculative and fails to understand how the global power prestige game is played. Humiliation of this kind entails a loss of prestige. Have too many of such episodes in a row, and you have a loss of political leverage, fallout or weakening of pre-existing diplomatic ties, and the economic ramifications that follow further down the line.
The thing that I think people are forgetting when they bring up the Obama administration's attempt to drum up support for Syria is that there was absolutely no support at home for the act. Before we all get excited about the world putting the US in its place, remember that there was basically zero support from the American people, their representatives, or members of the military, for that matter - if there had been, then there's a good chance that they would have plowed ahead with it. When was the last time that the US Government gave a crap about what its allies thought about waging wars, or using drones, or using electronic dragnets to capture all their nation's data?
Back in the neocon surge of the early 00's, there was this kunckle-dragging attitude that we could go anywhere in the globe, lay it to waste, WIN, and then rebuild it and be hailed as heroes in a very short amount of time. The interceding decade has made it abundantly clear to anyone who wasn't intelligent enough to realize what a crock that was in the first place that it's a dumb attitude with absolutely no merit. What did the US, or anyone else, gain from Iraq and Afghanistan? Basically, nothing. The only people who have really benefited were the very people we were ostensibly liberating the place from.
The US is war weary, and there's a general sentiment, even among conservatives, that we need to focus on problems at home rather than fix other peoples' problems - especially when they don't want our help. I think that as millenials get older and become a more important part of the American voting block, you'll see less support for wars of aggression and more support for a defensive military instead.
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