Wyoming 2018 Governor Race (area, rain, party)

[Crazy4Chickens]

I've been watching the live stream debate carefully. Ive caught two now. Trying to decide who I want to vote for. The Libertarian guy lost me when he started saying he wants to pay for everything by raising property taxes. No thank you.

I agree that it seems like Mark would rather be anywhere else, and he talks in circles and doesn't really answer the question which bothers me greatly since it's a debate to you know, answer questions.

Mary has some stuff I can stand behind, but it's clear she's going to end up raising our taxes one way or another. She claims no state taxes, but then says we need to have a discussion on taxes in the next breath. Hmmm. Also she keeps going on about how she knows the most about energy, more than any of the other candidates, which could be true, but it rubs me the wrong way. She keeps attacking Mark also.

Lastly Rammell. He's the most go get em' of the bunch, but he's totally stuck on stopping the environmentalists, it's something he is very focused on. Which could be a good thing, but I need him to answer the questions too, not just keep coming back to how he's going to give the environmentalists a piece of his mind.

I am stuck. Not sure who I'm voting for at this point for Govenor. Definitely not libertarian guy, that much I know.

[Happy in Wyoming]

Originally Posted by Crazy4Chickens

Mary has some stuff I can stand behind, but it's clear she's going to end up raising our taxes one way or another. She claims no state taxes, but then says we need to have a discussion on taxes in the next breath. Hmmm. Also she keeps going on about how she knows the most about energy, more than any of the other candidates, which could be true, but it rubs me the wrong way. She keeps attacking Mark also.

Mary Throne lies a lot. She has always claimed to support the Second Amendment, but she has always supported gun control.

[Crazy4Chickens]

Originally Posted by Happy in Wyoming

Mary Throne lies a lot. She has always claimed to support the Second Amendment, but she has always supported gun control.

Good to know. The last thing I want is for anyone to take away our 2nd amendment rights.

I can't stand how some politicians say one thing to get into office, and then do the complete opposite. I think my decision would be easier if I was a staunch Republican or Democrat, but I'm not either. Trying to cut through all the B.S. and find a candidate who stands for what I believe in is tough. Oh well the research continues.

[Happy in Wyoming]

Wyoming voters will elect Mark Gordon or Mary Throne. Mark Gordon is my choice for governor.

https://www.wyominggunowners.org


To be clear, Mark Gordon has publicly stated that he would oppose legislation like:

>>> Red Flag Gun Seizures; which would allow you to lose your gun rights based on secret court proceedings and without even being charged with a crime.

>>> Universal Background Checks; which would make it a crime to transfer any firearms (even amongst family members) without going through a government check first!

>>> Veterans Disarmament Act; which would disarm every American citizen under the age of 21, including those who have served in the military with distinction!

But more than what he would oppose, is the legislation that Mark Gordon has promised to sign.

As you all know, WYGO is determined to end deadly ‘Gun Free Zones’ in Wyoming, an effort that was stalled in 2017 when Governor Mead vetoed our bill.

But Mark Gordon has promised, in writing, to sign this bill into law.

Don’t take my word for it, check out his signed survey for yourself!

Now that you have the facts, please help Wyoming Gun Owners get this message out to as many gun owners as possible between now and November 6.

Wyoming was a bright spot in 2018 in the fight for gun rights, passing Stand-Your-Ground law while many ‘red states’ were advancing gun control.

But we can’t let up now!

And with virtually everyone talking about a blue wave coming on election day, we can’t take anything for granted, either.

Please make a donation right away to help us get the word out!

Whether you can give $100 or just $10 is up to you, of course, but whatever you do, please take action right away!

Whatever you do, please make sure that you forward this email to more gun owners, so that they are not confused by Throne’s lies!

For Freedom,

Aaron Dorr
Policy Advisor
Wyoming Gun Owners"

[TNT25]

With only two days of campaigning left until general election day, I figured I would speculate on the final outcome. Before that however, I have to relay information on campaign mail I received today. This was the only mailing I received at all since the primary election. It was a letter from the Mary Throne campaign. I was a little shocked by this at first, since I am currently registered as a republican at my primary address. After opening, I discovered that it was a letter directed to all WEA members statewide. I work in public education currently, and I am also an active WEA member. Mary was touting her education positions in contrast to Mark Gordon's most recent debate statements. She feels she will be protecting K-12 funding from the draconian cuts being envisioned by certain legislators. But anyway, onto my final prediction. For reference, here are the results of the 2014 Governor general election:

-Matt Mead (R), 58%
-Pete Gosar (D), 27%
-Don Willis (I), 6%
-Dee Cozzens (L), 2%
-Write-In votes, 5%

I foresee the following for the 2018 election, going with WyoPrairie's predicted baseline of 52% for Gordon:

-Mark Gordon (R), 52%
-Mary Throne (D), 30%
-Rex Rammell (C), 8%
-Lawrence Struempf (L), 3%
-Write-In votes, 7%

This prediction presumes an increase of write-in and 3rd party votes from 13% to 18% when contrasting 2014 and 2018 respectively. How do others feel about this possible increase? Could it go higher than that? Or is there still a ceiling here in the Cowboy State with our outsider party candidates?

[Wyoprairie]

Last night for any predict's: your 30% Throne may be closer to it than my 28%. In that case, you win the 3 piece living
room set and I settle for the fondue pot. We both presume an increase in write-ins. Likewise that the Libertarian draws
the usual 3%. I'm uncertain how much increase in write-ins. Have they gotten over it by now? I don't think the "Write In Foster" deal has gone anywhere. Obviously, he did not give it any endorsement and has moved on to some generous fundraising for the people whose homes were lost in the Hoback Ranch fire.



For fun, I have another set of numbers, what I call the "non-typical" Wyoming result (as opposed to the typical Wyoming result-reflected in my other set of numbers). So the non-typical would actually have Throne get as much as 37% with
Gordon winning by plurality not majority at 45% and the others taking up the remaining 18%. This scenario presumes Throne advantage by virtue of Wyoming native status and lingering resentment over the Republican Primary outcome. Do I think it likely? Nooo. I think more likely the hatchet gets buried and listening to the radio today on the road, they said Dem's are only 16% of registered voters in WY. Which reminds of what Al Simpson said once at a honorary dinner for Mike Sullivan: "For a Democrat to get elected governor in Wyoming, you have to get Republicans to vote for you-a lot of Republicans have to vote for you." Will Mary achieve it?...I doubt it, also because the absurd behavior and antics of the national party will put her against a headwind, even as she tries to distance herself from the national party.


We've been talking Governor, but for a night before prediction, I believe I will put Dr. John at 63%, Trauner and other
hopefuls at 37% combined. Cheney will do better (they've really been beating up on Barrasso) at 70 or 72%, while Hunter and whoever come in at 28 to 30%. I'll be in Sidney, Montana, so have to use the laptop to see what happens.

[TNT25]

You can throw me in as one of the nativist/resentful Republican voters who bubbled in Throne. Probably childish and tantrum like, but that’s how I dealt with the primary aftermath. I think you’re correct that it will only provide Mary a slight boost from Gosar’s numbers, no more than 2-3%, with the national antics and theatrics largely colouring the average Republican voter’s perception of Mary, be it accurate or not.

[TNT25]

It is apparent that I am an anomalous Republican voter this election cycle. The contentiousness of the primary was forgotten, and it appears to be a “straight ticket” election night, with most statewide Republican candidates getting 65-70% of the vote.

[Happy in Wyoming]

[Wyoprairie]

All over it tonight with nothing else to do...(and 9 degrees outside) Gordon outperforming expectations by far. "Other" not having any impact at all. Doesn't look like 3rd party or write-ins will have any more impact than in a usual year. Barrasso winning by larger margin than I expected, Cheney by somewhat smaller margin than I expected. ( I thought Trauner would be more palatable than Hunter.) I'll admit, I went straight ticket all the way thru it. 1st time voted for gov who wasn't born here.



Teton reliably blue these days. Mead won it in 2010. Blue since. Albany a lighter shade of blue (like Carolina vs. Duke)
Mead also won it in 2010. Narrowly blue since. May stay that way. I don't see any more "blue"s coming up anytime soon. One cool thing about Wyo-there is no urban bloc that can dominate. Population very dispersed. Doubt much change in the legislature. (currently 78 R, 12 D) Went 77 R, 13 D in 2014, back to 78/12 in 2016. Mead's first term, legislature overrode every veto, second term he didn't veto anything. If he didn't like it, he didn't sign and it became law anyway. Waiting to see, but think Gordon will have fairly conciliatory relationship with the legislature.