Arizona population estimates way off (Phoenix, Maricopa: how much, houses, job market)

[phxgreenfire]

I came across this article yesterday. I thought it was pretty funny:

Census to let Arizona reset flawed data

I remember an article from last year indicating Phoenix is shrinking:
Phoenix may be losing people

Any thoughts?

[Ritchie_az]

The model they used to estimate the population was flawed (counting empty houses as "people"). Arizona still grew 2.5x the national rate from 2000-2010.

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

The model they used to estimate the population was flawed (counting empty houses as "people"). Arizona still grew 2.5x the national rate from 2000-2010.

But it's significantly lower than what they thought. Near the beginning, there was speculation that Arizona may have even lost people in more recent years.

[Ritchie_az]

They were "counting houses" as part of their formula to estimate the population. That works up until the number of unoccupied houses is more than average.
The mistake by the census bureau didn't just effect Arizona, but other states as well (Nevada, Florida, California, etc).
Now that the 2010 census is complete, I'm not sure what difference it makes how accurate the 2005-2009 "estimated population" was. From 2000-2010, Arizona grew by leaps and bounds, at a rate 2.5x the national rate. That's pretty impressive.

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

They were "counting houses" as part of their formula to estimate the population. That works up until the number of unoccupied houses is more than average.
The mistake by the census bureau didn't just effect Arizona, but other states as well (Nevada, Florida, California, etc).
Now that the 2010 census is complete, I'm not sure what difference it makes how accurate the 2005-2009 "estimated population" was. From 2000-2010, Arizona grew by leaps and bounds, at a rate 2.5x the national rate. That's pretty impressive.

But there is still evidence people are leaving. I'm interested to see what the future holds, especially in a state that relies so heavily on houses as a commodity and growth. It's really no different than Detroit's reliance on the automotive industry.

[Ritchie_az]

Originally Posted by phxgreenfire

But there is still evidence people are leaving. I'm interested to see what the future holds, especially in a state that relies so heavily on houses as a commodity and growth. It's really no different than Detroit's reliance on the automotive industry.

People are leaving. But people are coming, too. That's every state, except perhaps Michigan, which actually lost population instead of gain. Arizona gained at 2.5x the national rate. (As much as you'd like Arizona and Michigan to be similar, they are not).
I also see that you generalized the whole state of Arizona as relying "so heavily on houses as a commodity". That may be true for some areas, but that's a pretty broad brush for the whole state. And there is nothing wrong with growth and construction jobs, anyway.

Arizona is one of the fastest growing states in the nation, and Phoenix, the largest city in that state, has one of the hottest job markets in the whole country right now.

The population is not shrinking. It is growing.

[phxgreenfire]

Honestly... I could care less. I know I have a week to go, but my New Year's resolution is to get the hell out of that wasteland. The people moving to Phoenix aren't exactly bringing jobs, and companies don't really seem to be relocating their headquarters to it. Phoenix really has nothing going for it. The people who love it there remind me of that book of The Odyssey detailing the Land of the Lotus-Eaters. The "affordable" housing thing makes me wonder... I did research and I would actually be better off-- cost of living, taxes and all-- going by the market rate for my field in more expensive cities. I wonder what people do for a living if they can't afford to live in those other cities... Phoenix has a GDP much, much, much lower than comparably- and smaller-sized cities.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by phxgreenfire

I came across this article yesterday. I thought it was pretty funny:

Census to let Arizona reset flawed data

I remember an article from last year indicating Phoenix is shrinking:
Phoenix may be losing people

Any thoughts?

It's obvious your agenda is to put down Arizona by claiming the state shrunk. But like all haters, they post misinformation or misquote articles. Let me guess, you lost your job here and is bitter as a result and now feel compelled to put the state down. There is another member like that and has used multiple aliases in the past, I wonder if you are the same guy. Anyway, the article makes no mention of Arizona shrinking. In fact, it's the opposite. What is clear is Arizona grew but the degree to which it grew may have been overestimated. The Census estimated Arizona's population to be 6.4 million which indicates growth not shrinkage. However, Arizona estimated their population to be 6.9 million last year implying the state is larger than the census numbers. Arizona gained a congressional seat and an electoral vote.

Nice Try but you will need do a better job better next time

[Boompa]

WestCor was bragging about that mall when I moved there in 1998. The far reaches of Maricopa County have developments that left houses half built. Housing should never be the basis for an economy.

[phxgreenfire]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

It's obvious your agenda is to put down Arizona by claiming the state shrunk. But like all haters, they post misinformation or misquote articles. Let me guess, you lost your job here and is bitter as a result and now feel compelled to put the state down. There is another member like that and has used multiple aliases in the past, I wonder if you are the same guy. Anyway, the article makes no mention of Arizona shrinking. In fact, it's the opposite. What is clear is Arizona grew but the degree to which it grew may have been overestimated. The Census estimated Arizona's population to be 6.4 million which indicates growth not shrinkage. However, Arizona estimated their population to be 6.9 million last year implying the state is larger than the census numbers. Arizona gained a congressional seat and an electoral vote.

Nice Try but you will need do a better job better next time

I do work, actually... but could do much better for myself in a real city. If you have problems with reading comprehension or didn't read the article, one economist said:

"I expect we will find Arizona's population estimates were too high, and more people left the state than expected," said Marshall Vest, economist with the University of Arizona. "We have known the numbers were off, but not by how much or exactly why."

I also never asserted it is losing people, but that there is speculation that it could be.