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Although there has been some contention that the birth rate has already dropped over the last couple years, in recent days, the CCP has officially announced that China has entered population decline.
Demographers in China and abroad believe that there is no way that they will be able to realistically turn it around in any meaningful degree of time, meaning that for at least the next generation cycle and most likely longer, the population will continue to decline. This has many ramifications for China's plans for its geopolitical status in the 21st century.
Somewhere in the basement the China shills are seething.
I don't wanna be that "I been sayin' it fer years" guy, but...
Just a couple months ago I remember a few posters here insisting it was made up Western propaganda, offering theories as to how and why it would bounce back up in short form, etc.
Now the government itself is saying it's happening, and Chinese academics are saying there's probably no way it will correct in our lifetime. It's being spun as the result of a victory for China, with people's QOL increasing and the correlating drop in births, which has been documented all over the world. But, digging into the topic - the data about imbalances in gender and income, the one child policy, the widespread and totally verifiable stories of forced abortions, adoptions, and infanticide, the utter malaise that has been affecting young people - shows that this is a different animal altogether.
I feel kind of bad for my nieces and especially nephews back there. They're going to be aging up into a situation that's going to be very different from what my wife and her brother got.
I feel kind of bad for my nieces and especially nephews back there. They're going to be aging up into a situation that's going to be very different from what my wife and her brother got.
Every country on earth has its up and down periods. Some generations get a good deal from the timing and others will get a raw deal.
Notice here that many Chinese Australians have only one child. Entirely by choice. They are normally highly educated and I think there is a strong correlation between the education level of women and a low birth rate. Everywhere.
Not sure why a decline in a population of 1.4 billion (most living in an area the size of the eastern third of the US) is bad news for anyone. But I suppose the modern news narrative is to portray every event in the world as a major problem.
There are so many people in China that I don't think a decline in the short term is a real worry for anyone.
With that said, India needs a population decline more than China.
And Bangladesh needs a population decline more than India.
Geopolitically, by the end of the 21st century it's projected that the population of China will be double that of the USA, compared to being four to five times as large now.
The crazy thing is that Nigeria is projected to have a larger population than China. That's madness.
Not sure why a decline in a population of 1.4 billion (most living in an area the size of the eastern third of the US) is bad news for anyone. But I suppose the modern news narrative is to portray every event in the world as a major problem.
First off, we are not talking about a small decline, we are talking about a 50% reduction over the next 50 years.
In isolation this might be manageable, but it is not at all compatible with China's growth model which is based on massive amount of construction and income from land sales.
It is also not compatible with nationalists dream of becoming the world's strongest country.
Not sure why a decline in a population .... is bad news for anyone..
Short answer-- the impact on the economy, which impacts the standard of living/general well-being of the populace....A growing poulation means more demand, thus need for more productivity, so more jobs etc etc...Conversely, falling pop means fewer jobs, more competion, etc etc.....
Popuations left to themselves without interference grow along the sigmoid-shaped logistic curve, reaching a steady point (birth rate = death rate) at the "carrying capacity." That number is determined by availability of the resources that allow the population to grow-- food, water, space etc etc...Living at the bottom, left hand side of the curve there is minimum competiton for resources (The Garden of Eden). Living at the carrying capacity (upper right) is maximum competition for resources (The Jungle.)
As 415 (if I may be familiar and call you by your first name) is correct to point out about one over-looked danger of China's forced popuation control effects--Selective abortion has given them a huge imbalance in the M:F ratio...They now have a large population of breeding age males looking for mates and bound to be disappointed--> A land war sacrificing large numbers of young males would be a great advantage to a ruling class terrified of losing power to an unhappy dating scene mob.
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