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Losing the war in Afghanistan didn't even cost the President his job. That's what happens when you rule by (elected) committee, and swap out the head guy every 4-to-8 years; usually do nothing (stupid) because nobody can herd all the cats into agreement. When you do manage to do something stupid, spread the blame around until it's thin enough not to affect anyone.
Everyone is waiting to see if/how long Putin keeps his head on his shoulders, now that he's losing Ukraine.
Xi starting and losing a war of aggression against Taiwan will Put[him]in the same position.
So, yeah, maybe you're right; it's not cautionary for China. Someday maybe China will have representative government and it can do all the stupids its people want.
The tale of Ukraine is cautionary for the dictator-for-life of China.
Are you alluding to wars not costing presidents their job. Because if you are, then I would say LBJ begs to differ. George W Bush the man who started the Afghanistan war was in his second term and therefore ineligible to run again. Had he been up for reelection he would have lost in a landslide considering the beating his party took. Never seen a guy go from the most popular to the most unpopular in such a short time span.
I do agree that the military industrial complex has game plans to continue wars regardless of who in the office. The reason the U.S. was able to stay in Afghanistan so long was
1) The Iraq war dominated headlines. Americans’ kind of forgot about Afghanistan
2) The casualty count was low since they basically gave up on controlling the entire country and concentrated efforts on keeping certain cities.
The tricks eventually stopped working. I'm not so sure Ukraine is a cautionary tale. They are trying to make it out to be one for sure, but this war appears to be far from over, and despite their setbacks Russia continues pounding with no end in sight. If I'm Taiwanese leaders I would looking at how the U.S. and other powers refuse to send soldiers to assist in the fighting. They are also providing weapons and aid, but that isn't stopping the country from being destroyed nor is it driving out Russian forces. Meanwhile the U.S. is profiting from the conflict.
can't be more wrong
china does not want to take taiwan by force, that's what the US want, the destruction of taiwan/china
taiwan has been alternating ruling party every 8 years ever since they started with elections. we will see what happens next year
This...and it's not like the ruling DPP (who's more anti-CCP than its KMT counterpart) is in a strong position. DPP lost big again in the local election last year. While presidential election next year is a different animal, KMT can easily go back into power and move away from separation, and passed legislation that basically increased integration especially in economy (i.e. legislation similar to the failed Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement proposed in 2013/2014).
Are you alluding to wars not costing presidents their job. Because if you are, then I would say LBJ begs to differ. George W Bush the man who started the Afghanistan war was in his second term and therefore ineligible to run again. Had he been up for reelection he would have lost in a landslide considering the beating his party took. Never seen a guy go from the most popular to the most unpopular in such a short time span.
Your timeline is off by an election cycle... The war in Afghanistan started in Oct. '01, less than a month after 9/11 took place. By the time Bush went up for reelection in '04, we had already been fighting there for 3 years. Even living in CA at the time, there was a lot of patriotism flying around the whole matter, and a lot of people saying "well, you can't just change presidents this early in the war..." The economy was "good" - it wasn't, but it seemed that way because of east credit, and that seemed to vindicate the war in a lot of people's minds.
It was only after the average American finally realized what a disorganized mess the whole situation was, the "wartime economic boom" started to cool, and it became increasingly clear that the GOP rolled the credits on the conflict long before the movie ended. Bush's popularity tanked and people felt like they'd been had - which was true - and they took a walloping in '08.
Quote:
I do agree that the military industrial complex has game plans to continue wars regardless of who in the office. The reason the U.S. was able to stay in Afghanistan so long was
1) The Iraq war dominated headlines. Americans’ kind of forgot about Afghanistan
2) The casualty count was low since they basically gave up on controlling the entire country and concentrated efforts on keeping certain cities.
The tricks eventually stopped working.
America had moved on from Afghanistan because it had been relegated to background noise for nearly 20 years, with defense contractors raking in cash. The main impetus for ending it, under Biden, I believe was a combination of the fact it was completely pointless quagmire, and they saw conflict with Russia and China on the horizon; they didn't want to be tied down when that happened. The military industrial complex was still gonna get its cash, but the military needed to be ready and available.
Quote:
I'm not so sure Ukraine is a cautionary tale. They are trying to make it out to be one for sure, but this war appears to be far from over, and despite their setbacks Russia continues pounding with no end in sight. If I'm Taiwanese leaders I would looking at how the U.S. and other powers refuse to send soldiers to assist in the fighting. They are also providing weapons and aid, but that isn't stopping the country from being destroyed nor is it driving out Russian forces. Meanwhile the U.S. is profiting from the conflict.
Do the Chinese public have the appetite for loss that the Russians do? How will people feel when their only sons are at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait? Can Xi's fragile ego handle being made look like an inept loser on the global stage? It's definitely a cautionary tale.
America had moved on from Afghanistan because it had been relegated to background noise for nearly 20 years, with defense contractors raking in cash. The main impetus for ending it, under Biden, I believe was a combination of the fact it was completely pointless quagmire, and they saw conflict with Russia and China on the horizon; they didn't want to be tied down when that happened. The military industrial complex was still gonna get its cash, but the military needed to be ready and available.
A possible conflict with China is definitely the big thing (This was in 2021...in the middle of the pandemic, with anti-China and especially anti-CCP sentiment at all time high). Ukraine was being monitored but it was still mostly under the radar in 2021.
===================
BTW, any comparison to Ukraine is ridiculous - one thing that Taiwan has (and Ukraine doesn't) is a giant body of water in between. You can't exactly just roll tanks over the border like what Russia did.
I actually had never heard of that. Taiwan and South Korea FORCED to build semi-conductor plants here? Really!?
on Aug 9, 2022
President Biden signs CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 into law
~ youtube.com/watch?v=m-ZjNdeKemU
TSMC of Taiwan build two chip factories in the US, and one in Japan.
South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung also launch new facilities in the US. Below are the latest news from them.
S. Korea's chip industry faces downturn with external situation putting more burden
Mar 9, 2023
Tonight, we take a closer look at South Korea's chip industry and its prospects.
It's because the nation's key export item seems to be going through a hard time in recent months as external factors increase their burden.
Meanwhile, Pooh Bear is in there for the rest of his life, no matter what the Chinese people want.
See, the problem with being Dictator-For-Life is that you are dictator, for life.
let me know when he rules longer than mao/deng or even jiang
but hey, I'll take a dictator for life than a "dynasty" ruling family for life.
We had bush here in america
guess what chiang's family is doing in tw, they are pretty much ruling every generation. I hope his great grand son doesn't run next year. if he does, you can call it the chiang dynasty.
Your timeline is off by an election cycle... The war in Afghanistan started in Oct. '01, less than a month after 9/11 took place. By the time Bush went up for reelection in '04, we had already been fighting there for 3 years. Even living in CA at the time, there was a lot of patriotism flying around the whole matter, and a lot of people saying "well, you can't just change presidents this early in the war..." The economy was "good" - it wasn't, but it seemed that way because of east credit, and that seemed to vindicate the war in a lot of people's minds.
It was only after the average American finally realized what a disorganized mess the whole situation was, the "wartime economic boom" started to cool, and it became increasingly clear that the GOP rolled the credits on the conflict long before the movie ended. Bush's popularity tanked and people felt like they'd been had - which was true - and they took a walloping in '08.
America moved on from Afghanistan because it had been relegated to background noise for nearly 20 years, with defense contractors raking in cash. The main impetus for ending it, under Biden, I believe was a combination of the fact it was completely pointless quagmire, and they saw conflict with Russia and China on the horizon; they didn't want to be tied down when that happened. The military industrial complex was still gonna get its cash, but the military needed to be ready and available.
Do the Chinese public have the appetite for loss that the Russians do? How will people feel when their only sons are at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait? Can Xi's fragile ego handle being made look like an inept loser on the global stage? It's definitely a cautionary tale.
I should have clarified the election cycle. I was referring to Bush’s second term when the war started to turn for the worse. Afghanistan was an embarrassment with no end in sight. Not good PR when you report to be the strongest military in the world, yet cavemen in rag clothing armed only with AK-47s (one of those inferior Russian weapons) and RPGs are fighting you to a stalemate.
Despite the utter failure there were those that pushed to remain in Afghanistan seeing to make it into another Korean peninsula type situation. Control over portions of Afghanistan would have been useful in military strategy against China. Afghanistan borders the country to the West, and while mountains making troop movements difficult, they aren’t a hinderance to air assaults against pipelines coming from Central Asia, and military installations in the Western part of the country. That and as you mentioned the military industrial complex was making massive amounts of money.
Regarding appetite for loss, I wager most countries have little appetite for loss, it's the reason why truth is the first casualty in a conflict. Can't have people panicking, fearful, or sad. Need them to be driven by revenge, anger, and trumped up on patriotism. After all it's the common people who will suffer, not the elites making the decision. If the Russian-Ukraine war has shown anything it’s how much nations will cover up, exaggerate, and flat out lie to create or control the narrative. Kind of strange how it’s difficult to find information on Ukrainian battlefield losses, yet we receive news accounts of Russian losses on a weekly basis here in the U.S. Xi has a fragile ego? You speak as though you know him personally. I would imagine it's difficult to reach that level of power with a fragile ego regardless of one's government system.
A possible conflict with China is definitely the big thing (This was in 2021...in the middle of the pandemic, with anti-China and especially anti-CCP sentiment at all time high). Ukraine was being monitored but it was still mostly under the radar in 2021.
===================
BTW, any comparison to Ukraine is ridiculous - one thing that Taiwan has (and Ukraine doesn't) is a giant body of water in between. You can't exactly just roll tanks over the border like what Russia did.
It cuts both ways. True Taiwan is surrounded by ocean, meaning an adversary just can't park tanks on the border. At the same time, it would make supplying Taiwan with the necessary arms and supplies difficult as well. NATO can flood Ukraine with weapons via Poland and Romania. For Taiwan the U.S. would have to use ships and planes, which are expensive and susceptible to anti-air and anti-ship weaponry.
Do the Chinese public have the appetite for loss that the Russians do? How will people feel when their only sons are at the bottom of the Taiwan Strait? Can Xi's fragile ego handle being made look like an inept loser on the global stage? It's definitely a cautionary tale.
Russians don't have appetite for loss either. They initially thought the war would be easy, they will take Kyiv in the first week and the rest of Ukraine will follow. When the war has actually started, then they covered up any loss that was possible and made the public angry whenever it wasn't.
I expect China to be similar. Chinese also thought it would be an easy win for Russia, but unlike Russians they have now realized that Russia is struggling. However, they did not learn from these lessons at home, and they still think it will be easy to invade Taiwan and they will just have to deal with western sanctions.
Hence, I expect them to end up in the same trap. They will initially celebrate any gain of territory, but as the war drags on then they have to keep fighting to avoid loss of face. Just like Russia, they will cover up any losses that are possible and make the public angry if it is not. If they are about to lose, then they will get desperate and their tolerance for loss will surge.
Russians don't have appetite for loss either. They initially thought the war would be easy, they will take Kyiv in the first week and the rest of Ukraine will follow. When the war has actually started, then they covered up any loss that was possible and made the public angry whenever it wasn't.
I expect China to be similar. Chinese also thought it would be an easy win for Russia, but unlike Russians they have now realized that Russia is struggling. However, they did not learn from these lessons at home, and they still think it will be easy to invade Taiwan and they will just have to deal with western sanctions.
Hence, I expect them to end up in the same trap. They will initially celebrate any gain of territory, but as the war drags on then they have to keep fighting to avoid loss of face. Just like Russia, they will cover up any losses that are possible and make the public angry if it is not. If they are about to lose, then they will get desperate and their tolerance for loss will surge.
Russia has a huge agriculture plain and energy enough for itself. China doesn't.
China's export based economy may keep the peace for a very long time. Can a country who imports 65% of its energy and a large percentage of its food afford to endure the sanctions Russia is feeling?... I wouldn't think so.
Cutting off Russian imports and exports mean doing without Russian raw materials; they had to finished good to speak of. And, as we are seeing, raw materials are available from lots of sources.
But China! They export tons of finished goods and import tons of raw materials and food. How could they possibly do battle with Europe and North America?
I think China has their eye on Eastern Russia, which has the oil, gas and water China needs. Taiwan, I think (I hope) is a sideshow intended to ramp up Chinese unity, the way Trump's illegal immigration did.
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