The Death of the Fringe Suburb (Atlanta, Marietta: real estate, rentals, lawyers)

[arjay57]

Here's a guy who predicts that the outer suburbs are basically doomed. I wonder if he has ever been to the ATL?

Over all, only 12 percent of future homebuyers want the drivable suburban-fringe houses that are in such oversupply, according to the Realtors survey. This lack of demand all but guarantees continued price declines. Boomers selling their fringe housing will only add to the glut. Nothing the federal government can do will reverse this.

Many drivable-fringe house prices are now below replacement value, meaning the land under the house has no value and the sticks and bricks are worth less than they would cost to replace. This means there is no financial incentive to maintain the house; the next dollar invested will not be recouped upon resale. Many of these houses will be converted to rentals, which are rarely as well maintained as owner-occupied housing. Add the fact that the houses were built with cheap materials and methods to begin with, and you see why many fringe suburbs are turning into slums, with abandoned housing and rising crime.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/26/op...ge-suburb.html

[SW30303]

Who knows? It could be localized.

Most of us cannot predict the future, but as the numerous baby boomers sell off their large houses in the exurbs after the kids grow up, some of this may come true. There are other factors, too, like high gas prices and the continued slowdown of the economy. And some other things I cannot think of that come to mind.

[Cameron H]

Not sure I buy it. For one thing, the author defines future home buyers as retired Boomers and Millennials, which is fine. But I'm guessing the residential preferences of those Millennials will change when it comes time to start a family and then raise and educate their children. I don't think the advantages of the suburbs -- price, safety, schools, etc. -- is going away any time soon.

Likewise, it depends on the author's definition of "exurb" and the commute required to reach job centers. The thing about a metro like Atlanta, which is good and bad and is regularly commented on here, is that major job centers are spread around the area, rather than concentrated in the center. Alpharetta is an exurb if you have to commute into downtown Atlanta...probably not if you're only going to Perimeter Center.

[aries4118]

Originally Posted by arjay57

Here's a guy who predicts that the outer suburbs are basically doomed. I wonder if he has ever been to the ATL?

Well, here is a rebuttal to that article. A lot of these overly anti-suburban writers/promoters may just be wishful thinkers--or plain elitists.


Is Suburbia Doomed? Not So Fast. | Newgeography.com




Yes, we want sustainable developments and living spaces. But the demise of a major component of the American lifestyle would be bad for everyone in the U.S.

[BringBackCobain]

Interesting article. A couple of points:

1.) It mentions Virginia Highland as being a slum 30 years ago. That's incorrect. VA-Highlands has really never been a slum.

2.) As a millennial, I agree with his overall thesis regarding my generation. We put a MAJOR premium on walkability and being "close-in." I am not sure why that's the case, but it definitely is. I think once we start having kids, we will still head to the suburbs, but it will be the inner-suburbs (of course, what is an "inner suburb" will likely change as the city grows and MARTA expands). Also, our demands will retrofit those suburbs so that they have walkable downtowns that are connected to single-family neighborhoods by trials and bike routes.

3.) As another poster alluded to, not all fringe suburbs are going extinct. Atlanta continues to grow northward, and I don't see that changing. That means northern fringe suburbs will thrive as the city continues to grow towards them.

[K-SawDude]

Some of this argument may appear circular, as an exurb may become an "inner suburb" if development moves in that direction.

But overall, I tend to agree with the prediction that truly outer suburbs/exurbs won't be as desirable as intown and inner suburbs are. Rising gas prices alone ought to ensure that.

I thought the author was careful to acknowledge that the suburbs as a whole aren't destined for doom--just those that aren't structured around business- or town-centers or universities. For example, the core areas of Kennesaw and Marietta will probably continue to develop. But some of the more remote areas of Cobb, Cherokee, etc.--with all the McMansions but no real sense of central development besides a random strip mall here and there--will likely struggle.

There were some good pieces a while back on the exurban "ring of death" around Atlanta. Here's one piece I found:

Real Estate Expert Dubs Area 'Ring Of Death' | www.wsbtv.com

[The Ring of Death] includes Paulding, Carroll, Douglas, South Fulton, Clayton, Henry, Newton, Barrow, parts of far east Gwinnett, Hall and the northernmost parts of Cherokee. He includes Fayette, Forsyth and Coweta in his ring of death, though he said the new housing markets in those counties are healthier than the others and will recover quicker once demand for new homes returns.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by BringBackCobain

Interesting article. A couple of points:

1.) It mentions Virginia Highland as being a slum 30 years ago. That's incorrect. VA-Highlands has really never been a slum.

True. Virginia Highland was fully gentrified 30 years ago. As you say it had never deteriorated too much anyway.

[thumpcbd]

Originally Posted by arjay57

True. Virginia Highland was fully gentrified 30 years ago. As you say it had never deteriorated too much anyway.

Oh, VA was gentrified and deteriorating 30 years ago. It never detoriated to the level of the rest of Atl, but it wasn't a showpiece by any means.

Same with the area just to the south of Piedmont part. In the late 80's no one wanted to buy property around there.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by thumpcbd

Oh, VA was gentrified and deteriorating 30 years ago. It never detoriated to the level of the rest of Atl, but it wasn't a showpiece by any means.

Well, we lived in Virginia Highland in the 70s and still own the house. It was crawling with doctors, businessmen, lawyers, etc., and was desired by some because it was felt to be more "granola" than Buckhead in those days. And a lot of younger folks simply didn't want to live in the suburbs.. Many houses had been remodeled and they were selling like hot cakes, at premium prices. I can't remember any that were rundown in the least -- if so, we yuppies would have been all over them.

I will say that the schools had gone downhill somewhat. But with the influx of young families they came back pretty quickly.

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by K-SawDude

But overall, I tend to agree with the prediction that truly outer suburbs/exurbs won't be as desirable as intown and inner suburbs are. Rising gas prices alone ought to ensure that.

Meh- I still don't buy the "rising gas prices" thing. For one thing, gas prices still haven't risen anywhere near the levels that the doom-and-gloomers keep prediciting they will- we hear every year about how gas will hit $5/gallon, yet it's still sitting at just over $3/gallon, with no indication that there will be any massive spike any time soon.

Secondly, even if gas does get to $5/gallon at some point, it's going to take a lot more than that to equal the increased cost of living intown. Even with the 35-mile commute that I do from Cherokee County, I only use about 70 gallons of gas/month (at 20 mpg), so a $2/gallon increase in gas costs equates to $140/month. The higher cost of intown real estate and property taxes far outweighs that cost.

I'd predict that it'd take gas hitting something crazy like $10/gallon before it was enough of an issue for many folks to reconsider their current housing choices.