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Old 10-12-2017, 03:03 PM
 
5,362 posts, read 4,886,734 times
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Rob Oldham of the Georgia political blog GeorgiaPol.com writes that the metro Atlanta-friendly political figure Georgia Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle holds a big lead in the 2018 Georgia GOP gubernatorial primary race in an internal poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates.

McLaughlin & Associates is the same firm that did internal polling for sitting Georgia Governor Nathan Deal in his two statewide races in 2010 and 2014.

"Internal poll shows Cagle with big lead" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2017/10/1...agle-big-lead/

From the link above:
Quote:
The first poll that wasnít conducted at a local GOPís backyard barbeque is out for Georgiaís Republican gubernatorial primary. The news is good for Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle.

He has 41 percent of the vote among likely Republican primary voters, while his nearest rival, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, has just 12 percent. Hunter Hill, Michael Williams, and Clay Tippins are all at less than five percent, and nearly 40 percent of voters are undecided.

Moreover, the poll showed Cagle above water in his personal approval rating (+43 percent) and in his job approval rating (+56 percent). He and Kemp, who also has a net positive approval rating, are the only candidates that more than 50 percent of voters recognize, with 83 percent recognizing Cagle and 65 percent recognizing Kemp. While Hunter Hill, Michael Williams, and Clay Tippins were all slightly above water in their favorability ratings, they were unknown to most Republican voters.

Keep in mind that this was an internal (not public) poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, which is the same group that polled for Gov. Deal. According to the AJC, these polls are intended to puff up a candidateís image and scare rivals. Still, the results are overwhelmingly positive for Cagle and seem to confirm the conventional wisdom that he is the frontrunner.
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Vinings
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And does the Democratic nominee (no matter who it is) have any kind of chance at all?

Republican primary race = basically the election.
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:25 PM
 
5,362 posts, read 4,886,734 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by primaltech View Post
And does the Democratic nominee (no matter who it is) have any kind of chance at all?

Republican primary race = basically the election.
There's a small chance that one of the only two Democrats to enter the 2018 governor's race (Stacey Abrams of Atlanta, or Stacey Evans of Smyrna) could win the general election.

But some type of horrible scandal likely would have to befall the GOP nominee for a Democrat to win this or almost any statewide race at this point in time.

(...A horrible scandal that echoes the old saying of 'blank candidate is so popular and unstoppable that he would have to be caught with a dead girl or live boy to lose'.)

Otherwise, the conditions just do not seem to be favorable for a Democrat to win a statewide race right now, particularly a statewide race as high-profile as the governor's race.

Also, a relatively very moderate GOP gubernatorial candidate like Casey Cagle has much crossover political appeal with many black and Democratic voters during an era when the Democratic Party continues to have the image of being a weak party with very little (virtually no) chance of winning a statewide election at this point in time.

The best thing that the Democratic Party can do right now is to prepare for future statewide election cycles when electoral conditions potentially may be more favorable by continuing to build its base electorate, hone its electoral strategy and find its political voice.
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Old 10-12-2017, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Decatur, GA
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Hopefully Kemp starts some serious campaigning and can pull ahead of cagle.
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Old 10-12-2017, 04:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by primaltech View Post
And does the Democratic nominee (no matter who it is) have any kind of chance at all?

Republican primary race = basically the election.
Stacey Evans has a chance.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:03 PM
 
1,268 posts, read 628,986 times
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If the democrat had a chance, a better one would have entered by now. Cagle might be moderate enough that democrats don't see a point. He seems to have signaled he will follow in deals footprint of not trying to destroy the entire state economy to discriminate against one small subset of the population he doesn't like.

Don't know anything about Kemp, but he strikes me as less moderate.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Atlanta and St Simons Island, GA
20,893 posts, read 32,901,196 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
But some type of horrible scandal likely would have to befall the GOP nominee for a Democrat to win this or almost any statewide race at this point in time.
How horrible is the question. In contemporary politics, infidelity and cover-ups are the New Normal.

Claim: Cagle Overpaid Staffer To Hide Affair | WSB-TV

Casey Cagle wants new gay marriage fight in Ga. — Project Q Atlanta

Rep. gov candidates stand in lockstep behind ‘religious liberty’ bill | Political Insider blog

Get ready to incur opportunity costs in the billions.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Vinings
5,940 posts, read 2,904,691 times
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Jason Carter is white, male, pro-gun lobby (voted for the guns everywhere bill), and the grandson of a Georgia governor and President of the United States... and yet he lost by a wide margin of 7.9%, taking 44.9% of the vote to Deal's 52.8%.

Granted, Deal was an incumbent, which is probably worth a couple percentage points of advantage, but still, hard to reckon that a female African-American candidate with no famous last name, has any chance. But I dunno, maybe she can energize the black vote. But the problem with that is... inadvertently she'll probably equally energize the racist mountain redneck vote.

Therefore, go Cagle? Even though I strongly disagree with everything that he, and his party stand for. And the same thing goes for every other race and every state or federal representative that I have. Ah, the southern U.S... a depressing place.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Vinings
5,940 posts, read 2,904,691 times
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I keep getting Stacey Abrams and Stacey Evans confused.

I think Evans might would have a slightly higher chance (because of racism), but I don't see either having really any chance. Hope I'm wrong.
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:52 PM
 
693 posts, read 260,490 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by primaltech View Post
Jason Carter is white, male, pro-gun lobby (voted for the guns everywhere bill), and the grandson of a Georgia governor and President of the United States... and yet he lost by a wide margin of 7.9%, taking 44.9% of the vote to Deal's 52.8%.

Granted, Deal was an incumbent, which is probably worth a couple percentage points of advantage, but still, hard to reckon that a female African-American candidate with no famous last name, has any chance. But I dunno, maybe she can energize the black vote. But the problem with that is... inadvertently she'll probably equally energize the racist mountain redneck vote.

Therefore, go Cagle? Even though I strongly disagree with everything that he, and his party stand for. And the same thing goes for every other race and every state or federal representative that I have. Ah, the southern U.S... a depressing place.
Carterís biggest problem was his connection to his Grandfather which he tried unsuccessfully to distance himself from on policy. The Carter name is just as toxic as the Bush name. That will never change.
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