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"The Cook Political Report," an independent, non-partisan national political publication published by respected veteran national political writer and analyst Charlie Cook, currently rates the 2018 Georgia Governor's Race as "Solidly Republican," meaning that they currently do not consider the race to be competitive and think that (absent a major development in the race) it is not likely that the race will become closely contested before Election Day on November 6th.
"The Cook Political Report," an independent, non-partisan national political publication published by respected veteran national political writer and analyst Charlie Cook, currently rates the 2018 Georgia Governor's Race as "Solidly Republican," meaning that they currently do not consider the race to be competitive and think that (absent a major development in the race) it is not likely that the race will become closely contested before Election Day on November 6th.
Because as always, Democrats aren’t making a name for themselves. You hear Cagle in the news all the time, and all publicity is good publicity. I haven’t heard anything about the two Stacys until this thread.
"The Cook Political Report," an independent, non-partisan national political publication published by respected veteran national political writer and analyst Charlie Cook, currently rates the 2018 Georgia Governor's Race as "Solidly Republican," meaning that they currently do not consider the race to be competitive and think that (absent a major development in the race) it is not likely that the race will become closely contested before Election Day on November 6th.
Because as always, Democrats aren’t making a name for themselves. You hear Cagle in the news all the time, and all publicity is good publicity. I haven’t heard anything about the two Stacys until this thread.
Well... It's probably a bit more complicated than either of the Democratic candidates not making a name for themselves.
One major reason why Democrats are not viewed as being competitive (even by many Democrats themselves) in the 2018 Georgia Governor's race is because of a significant electoral disadvantage exacerbated by the dissent of the Democratic Party of Georgia into a state of total oblivion back in the late 2000's and early 2010's.
Another major reason why Democrats are not viewed as being competitive in the 2018 Georgia Governor's race is because of the widely held public perception across the entire political spectrum that a Republican candidate like powerful 3-term Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle is the next governor and that the 2018 gubernatorial race is merely just a coronation towards that inevitable result.
The highly adverse electoral and political conditions surrounding the 2018 gubernatorial race for Democrats is one major reason why some bigger-name Democratic politicians (like a Jason Carter, etc) might have decided not to enter the race.
Also, the widely held public perception that Democrats are not currently serious contenders for statewide office in an electorally deep-red state like Georgia (particularly at the gubernatorial level) is another factor that makes the 2018 election cycle such a challenging election cycle for Democrats in a state like Georgia.
And speaking of the widely-held perception that a candidate like Stacey Abrams has very little chance of succeeding in the general election...
Here's a good interview with Stacey Abrams in Marie Claire magazine that talks about how the odds are against her in the general election...
"Stacey Abrams Is Poised to Become the First Female African-American Governor
...People have told her she won't win because she's black. She's not listening." (Marie Claire magazine) https://www.marieclaire.com/politics...ams-interview/
Interesting article. I would have thought after President Barack Hussein Obama that people would be more reluctant to say that any person would not be able to win any office based on race, gender, sexual orientation, etc.
Also, after Trump's win, call me naive, but I am much more wary of assuming that some candidates are inevitable winners when they are opposed by scrappy, unconventional underdogs. The times we live in are just way too unpredictable and just hope that all Georgia voters who are unhappy with the status quo get out to vote.
I keep reading about all of these Democratic victories in GOP strongholds across the country--So why can't that be Georgia??
Well... It's probably a bit more complicated than either of the Democratic candidates not making a name for themselves.
One major reason why Democrats are not viewed as being competitive (even by many Democrats themselves) in the 2018 Georgia Governor's race is because of a significant electoral disadvantage exacerbated by the dissent of the Democratic Party of Georgia into a state of total oblivion back in the late 2000's and early 2010's.
Another major reason why Democrats are not viewed as being competitive in the 2018 Georgia Governor's race is because of the widely held public perception across the entire political spectrum that a Republican candidate like powerful 3-term Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle is the next governor and that the 2018 gubernatorial race is merely just a coronation towards that inevitable result.
The highly adverse electoral and political conditions surrounding the 2018 gubernatorial race for Democrats is one major reason why some bigger-name Democratic politicians (like a Jason Carter, etc) might have decided not to enter the race.
Also, the widely held public perception that Democrats are not currently serious contenders for statewide office in an electorally deep-red state like Georgia (particularly at the gubernatorial level) is another factor that makes the 2018 election cycle such a challenging election cycle for Democrats in a state like Georgia.
It's a shame that big-name Georgia Democrats would not be more optimistic about their chances when looking at the overall political climate in the nation. I mean, the conditions that make it hard for Dems to win now are always going to be there. I am disappointed that they are fighting harder to change that.
Interesting article. I would have thought after President Barack Hussein Obama that people would be more reluctant to say that any person would not be able to win any office based on race, gender, sexual orientation, etc.
Also, after Trump's win, call me naive, but I am much more wary of assuming that some candidates are inevitable winners when they are opposed by scrappy, unconventional underdogs. The times we live in are just way too unpredictable and just hope that all Georgia voters who are unhappy with the status quo get out to vote.
I keep reading about all of these Democratic victories in GOP strongholds across the country--So why can't that be Georgia??
That is an excellent question.
The recent victories by Democratic candidates in strongholds like Alabama, Southwestern Pennsylvania and Wisconsin occurred because of circumstances that were unique to those areas.
In Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones won the special U.S. Senate election because his Republican opponent, the infamous Roy Moore, was a uniquely and historically awful candidate.
In Southwestern Pennsylvania, Democrat Conor Lamb won the Congressional special election because he was a physically attractive conservative Democrat who appealed to just enough of the outer-suburban, exurban and rural voters who dominate the electorate of that area to beat his Republican opponent, Rick Saccone was a fundraising lightweight with virtually no money on hand who did not come across as the most appealing candidate... That's despite being in a congressional district where Republicans typically have an automatic advantage of nearly 20 points.
The Southwestern Pennsylvania congressional race also took place in a political environment where the incumbent longtime Republican congressman who represented the district, Tim Murphy, resigned after it became public that he was having an extramarital affair in which he had impregnated his mistress and pressured her to have an abortion... That's despite claiming to be a staunchly anti-abortion, pro-family politician.
The SW Pennsylvania congressional race also took place in a truly 'purple' state in Pennsylvania where Democrats are still considered highly viable in statewide politics with Democratic politicians currently holding both the Governor's and Lt. Governor's offices and with a court-ordered redistricting underway that is expected to boost Democrats' numbers in Pennsylvania's congressional delegation and state legislative seats.
In Wisconsin (another truly 'purple' state where Democrats are still viable like Pennsylvania), the electorate (despite being overwhelmingly dominated by generally deeply conservative rural/exurban and outer-suburban white voters much like in Georgia) continues to be more elastic and much more willing to vote for Democratic candidates both in local congressional and state legislative races and in statewide races.
Here in Georgia, Democrats are not currently considered to be a viable party on a statewide scale.
In addition to being in a deep minority position (near-superminority position) in both chambers of the Georgia Legislature, Georgia Democrats have not won a race for a statewide constitutional office in 12 years.
...That's while the Republican Party currently holds all Georgia statewide constitutional offices (all of which GOP candidates won by double-digit point margins during the last gubernatorial election cycle in 2014, except for the U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial races which Republican candidates David Perdue and Nathan Deal, each won by just under 8 points respectively), currently holds a near-supermajority position in each chamber of the Georgia Legislature and has won each presidential election cycle in the state since 1984, except for 1992 when the state very narrowly went for Bill Clinton.
Democrats can win in a GOP stronghold like Georgia, but they are going to need to build up the turnout of their base vote of minority and progressive white voters while grabbing enough moderate white voters to get to 50% + 1 in statewide electoral scenarios... Something that is an ongoing work-in-progress for a Georgia Democratic Party that is still in the early stages of making a long climb out of oblivion back towards parity and competitiveness.
In Georgia, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (be it Stacey Abrams or Stacey Evans) also likely will not have the advantage (or comfort) of facing an unappealing Republican opponent in the general election.
The GOP candidate that the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (Abrams or Evans) is likely to face in the general election is the very well-known, generally well-liked (outside of the Delta Airlines dust-up) and popular and powerful 3-term Georgia Lt. Governor and Georgia state Senate President Casey Cagle.
...Casey Cagle is a candidate who was the leading vote-getter in the state in the 2014 election cycle (won more votes than any other candidate running for office in Georgia that year) and a candidate who has a history of appealing to moderates, independents and even many Democratic and progressive voters during his 3 winning campaigns for statewide office.
Casey Cagle also (despite the dust-up with the state's largest private employer in Delta Airlines) will more than likely have the solid backing of the metro Atlanta and Georgia business and corporate communities like he has had since he first ran for statewide office back in 2006 when he notably defeated religious/social conservative favorite son Ralph Reed.
Maybe, just maybe, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate could have a shot at competing well enough to win the 2018 general election if they can make some inroads in attracting some meaningful political and financial backing from the state's powerful and domineering metro Atlanta-centered corporate community in the aftermath of the dust-up between the corporate community's otherwise strongest ally, Casey Cagle and the state's largest private employer, Delta Airlines.
But the dust-up between Cagle and Delta Airlines over NRA discounts is a one-off event (motivated by Cagle's participation in an increasingly anti-establishment oriented GOP gubernatorial primary) during a 3-term gubernatorial career in which Cagle has otherwise been an increasingly strong and dependable ally of the metro Atlanta and Georgia corporate communities.
The perception of the metro Atlanta and Georgia corporate communities that Georgia is a one-party state completely dominated by Republicans who are opposed by a Democratic Party that continues to be in total disarray is another reason why Democrats continue to struggle in Georgia despite demographics that seem to be increasingly in their favor.
It's a shame that big-name Georgia Democrats would not be more optimistic about their chances when looking at the overall political climate in the nation. I mean, the conditions that make it hard for Dems to win now are always going to be there. I am disappointed that they are fighting harder to change that.
Georgia Democrats are fighting hard to change the dynamic in Georgia but they are at an early disadvantage while climbing out of the extremely deep and ominous hole of total oblivion that they fell into back in the late 2000's and early 2010's.
Georgia Democrats may have their work cut out for them in the uphill battle that will be the gubernatorial general election race, but Georgia Democrats will have good opportunities to be competitive in the Georgia Lt. Governor's and Secretary of State races.
Georgia Democrats will also have the opportunity to make a modest but important dent in Georgia Republicans' legislative supermajorities with a slate of retirements by Republican lawmakers from state legislative seats in traditionally GOP-dominated but extremely heavily Democratic-trending Gwinnett County.
It may not be the massive earth-shaking win that many progressive onlookers would like to visualize, but these seemingly modest potential gains will be very important in a state where the GOP currently has total control of the political climate.
The potential wave or tsunami that Democrats are expecting nationally likely may only turnout to be a ripple in Georgia... But that ripple will still be important for the forward progress of a Georgia Democratic apparatus that is still in the very early stages of climbing back from a state of total oblivion and that will have the potential to be a very competitive force in the not-too-distant future just on the basis of demographic trends alone.
Winning and picking up state legislative seats in areas that have historically been GOP strongholds in the Atlanta suburbs (like Gwinnett County) goes a very long way towards getting the Democratic Party of Georgia back on a competitive track moving forward.
i just found out there's never been an african american governor of ANY state. does anyone know if an african american woman has ever been the party nominee for governor anywhere before? the prospect of electing the first female AA governor ever might bring a lot of support from out of state, but not the same folks that sent in money for ossoff— maybe a lot of people from other southern states and states with large AA populations who don't feel like they're being represented in their state.
i just found out there's never been an african american governor of ANY state. does anyone know if an african american woman has ever been the party nominee for governor anywhere before? the prospect of electing the first female AA governor ever might bring a lot of support from out of state, but not the same folks that sent in money for ossoff— maybe a lot of people from other southern states and states with large AA populations who don't feel like they're being represented in their state.
Though there have been at least 2 African-American governors in the history of the country (L. Douglas Wilder was the first black person ever to be elected governor when he was elected governor of Virginia back in 1989 and served as governor of that state from 1990-1994, and Patrick Duvall who was elected governor of Massachusetts back in 2006 and served as governor of that state from 2007-2015), that is a really good question as to whether an African-American female has ever been the nominee for governor from one of the two major political parties.
I am fairly certain that no African-American female has ever served as governor of a state in the U.S., but that is a really good question asking if an AA female has ever been a major party nominee for governor.
If no African-American female has ever been a major party nominee, former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams would make history in that regard if she wins the Democratic Party nomination for governor in Georgia.
You make an excellent observation in predicting that the prospect of electing the first African-American female governor would likely bring much support from out-of-state.
Indeed, Stacey Abrams in particular seems to have been attracting much money from out-of-state because of the prospect of electing the first African-American female governor in the nation.
Abrams is also attracting much money from out-of-state because of a fast-changing demographic makeup in Georgia that appears to be increasingly favorable to the Progressive aims of flipping Georgia from a deep-red Republican-dominated state to a Democratic Party-controlled blue state in the not-too-distant future.
Abrams has been raising a good amount of money from out-of-state Progressive donors because of how Georgia's demographics continues to evolve towards pushing the state towards 'majority-minority' status in the not-too-distant future and how that status might permanently move Georgia's 16 electoral votes from the Republican column to the Democratic column in presidential elections.
All 9 of Georgia's gubernatorial candidates were invited to participate in a community forum at Atlanta Technical College on Tuesday night.
Of the 9 gubernatorial candidates invited, 5 of them confirmed that they would be in attendance at the community forum at Atlanta Technical College.
Of the 5 gubernatorial candidates that confirmed that they would be in attendance at the community forum at Atlanta Technical College, only one actually showed up.
That one gubernatorial candidate that showed up was Democratic former Georgia state Representative Stacey Evans of Smyrna.
It is notable that Stacey Evans was the only gubernatorial candidate to attend the community forum at Atlanta Technical College because the forum was held in front of an overwhelmingly black audience at a location inside of the I-285, a factor that many political observers think dissuaded all of the Republican gubernatorial candidates from showing up.
Many political observers were also baffled that Democratic former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams did not show up at the event to market her gubernatorial campaign to a predominantly black audience. Some took Abrams' non-attendance at the event as a sign that her campaign might be taking black voters for granted.
Last night all the Georgia gubernatorial candidates were invited to participate in a community forum at Atlanta Technical College. Of the nine candidates invited five confirmed their attendance yet only one candidate for the Governor of Georgia appeared before the packed audience – Representative Stacey Evans.
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