Atlanta slips in attracting newcomers as domestic migration slows (Alpharetta: condos, employment)

[Airforceguy]

Before the economic downturn, metro Atlanta was the nation’s second-most popular destination, averaging net migration of 65,336 people a year, behind only Riverside-San Bernandino, Cal. Between 2012 and 2017, Atlanta fell to 24th, adding 4,918 people annually, according to Frey, who analyzed census data.
The migratory flows affect more than your morning commute.
Older workers typically arrive at the peak of their earning power and when they retire, they start spending wealth they’ve accumulated over a lifetime, said Jeff Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Growth at the University of Georgia.
Young migrants, for their part, boost local economies because they bring innovation, skills, entrepreneurship and muscle, he added.

https://www.ajc.com/business/economy...giyEdUIQZsFyH/

[markjames68]

I'm assuming when they say "Metro Atlanta" this includes North Fulton?

There's a fair amount of growth in Alpharetta, and when you look at the demographics you see a lot of Asian people moving in as well. Perhaps that's not counted as domestic migration - many might come directly from India as an example.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by markjames68

I'm assuming when they say "Metro Atlanta" this includes North Fulton?

There's a fair amount of growth in Alpharetta, and when you look at the demographics you see a lot of Asian people moving in as well. Perhaps that's not counted as domestic migration - many might come directly from India as an example.

They could also be moving from other parts of the Metro area, or it could be growth via. natural births.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by citidata18

They could also be moving from other parts of the Metro area, or it could be growth via. natural births.

True. In any case what it shows is that other metros are experiencing more explosive growth than Atlanta.

On a positive note, it also doesn't show a decline in domestic migration. Look at New York State as an example of that...

[toll_booth]

The two graphs comparing moves to metro Atlanta by age are telling.

Age 55+: Slows after the Great Recession, then drops to nearly zero through 2017.
Age 25-34: Slows after the Great Recession but partially rebounds by 2017.

I don't think it's a sign of a slowing economy so much as a sign that Atlanta is being viewed as a less desirable retirement destination. I think most of them prefer to go to Florida now.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by markjames68

True. In any case what it shows is that other metros are experiencing more explosive growth than Atlanta.

On a positive note, it also doesn't show a decline in domestic migration. Look at New York State as an example of that...

Atlanta has kind of reached its max capacity as far as growth, unless more high-paying employment opportunities crop up downtown and south of the city, or it invests in an extensive regional transit system.

The loss of a couple F500 companies and the bleeding of AT&T jobs isn't helping either.

I predicted in another thread that Atlanta will probably slow down to a more moderate pace of growth over the next couple of decades.

[ATLTJL]

I'm going to make a couple leaps of logic to try to explain what may be happening here.

A key piece of data that's missing is what 35-54 year old Gen X'ers are doing. That's vital because most retirees tend to want to relocated where their children are so they can be active grandparents and have their children look after them as they age. If retirees are not moving here as much, that leads me to believe their Gen X children are not moving to Atlanta, or if they're already here, they are saying, "Please don't move here, we probably aren't going to stay much longer" to their parents.

Also, I think it's incredibly important to look at what young people are doing. If you were a college graduate today, and you had your choice of where to live, how high would Atlanta be? I think we're in much worse shape than we were 20 years ago. In 1999, we were still riding the Olympic wave, Buckhead and VaHi had thriving night life districts, and midtown had the urban vibe with a few great night clubs.

What do we have now? Well, we have a Beltline, food halls, and condos. That's great... but it's also generic. How many other cities have similar amenities? And then other things we don't have?

I think what we're seeing is the result of a slow burn. People who moved here due to hype in the late 90s/early 2000s. Over time, they maybe realized it's not so great here. Maybe they got good jobs here, but stalled on an upward trajectory and had to move for better opportunities. Maybe they got sick of traffic. Maybe it just wasn't for them.

I said I was making a few leaps of logic. However, my perspective on Atlanta's future is probably more bleak than most people here simply because I think other cities are developing in more interesting and unique ways, offering better lifestyles for most people. Of course, that's all opinion. The key thing we need are great employment centers for people like me -- and I think MANY people are in my situation: I never actually WANTED to move to Atlanta, it's just where I got the best job opportunity.

If we actually do lose Turner entertainment in the AT&T talks, it's going to be a devastating blow. Not only is it a large employer, more importantly, it employs the creative class. I feel it matters less to lose 2000 AT&T employees doing whatever they do than losing 2000 arts and entertainment workers who bring art and culture to the city. Just my thoughts.

[markjames68]

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

I'm going to make a couple leaps of logic to try to explain what may be happening here.

A key piece of data that's missing is what 35-54 year old Gen X'ers are doing. That's vital because most retirees tend to want to relocated where their children are so they can be active grandparents and have their children look after them as they age. If retirees are not moving here as much, that leads me to believe their Gen X children are not moving to Atlanta, or if they're already here, they are saying, "Please don't move here, we probably aren't going to stay much longer" to their parents.

Also, I think it's incredibly important to look at what young people are doing. If you were a college graduate today, and you had your choice of where to live, how high would Atlanta be? I think we're in much worse shape than we were 20 years ago. In 1999, we were still riding the Olympic wave, Buckhead and VaHi had thriving night life districts, and midtown had the urban vibe with a few great night clubs.

What do we have now? Well, we have a Beltline, food halls, and condos. That's great... but it's also generic. How many other cities have similar amenities? And then other things we don't have?

I think what we're seeing is the result of a slow burn. People who moved here due to hype in the late 90s/early 2000s. Over time, they maybe realized it's not so great here. Maybe they got good jobs here, but stalled on an upward trajectory and had to move for better opportunities. Maybe they got sick of traffic. Maybe it just wasn't for them.

I said I was making a few leaps of logic. However, my perspective on Atlanta's future is probably more bleak than most people here simply because I think other cities are developing in more interesting and unique ways, offering better lifestyles for most people. Of course, that's all opinion. The key thing we need are great employment centers for people like me -- and I think MANY people are in my situation: I never actually WANTED to move to Atlanta, it's just where I got the best job opportunity.

If we actually do lose Turner entertainment in the AT&T talks, it's going to be a devastating blow. Not only is it a large employer, more importantly, it employs the creative class. I feel it matters less to lose 2000 AT&T employees doing whatever they do than losing 2000 arts and entertainment workers who bring art and culture to the city. Just my thoughts.

Interesting perspective.

I'm a Gen X'er who moved here for employment, but also first considered moving here around 8 years ago. I live in North Fulton, so while I like the proximity to Atlanta itself, I don't feel I need to be living right IN Atlanta.

I'm also past the stage where nightclubs and the singles bars attract me...but some good restaurants? Different types of cuisine? Count me in. Finally getting good Indian food again.

But I'm also in FinTech, which is a hot area for Atlanta and North Fulton.

For the first time ever, I feel that this is where I want to stay for the rest of my life. And I've lived in 3 countries and 4 states in the US.

[Pemgin]

Would the last person leaving Atlanta please turn off the lights?

[arjay57]

Housing prices around here have gone through the roof.