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What do you Atlanta-based posters see happening here over the next few decades? Will our population get older or younger? What about ethnic diversity? Where will new people come from? Will most existing residents stay put or relocate? Will we trend toward specific enclaves or will it just be a big mishmash of people?
How will all this affect the city proper and the metro area generally?
If you take out black/white, City of ATL is probably one of the least diverse major cities in the country. Hard to imagine that staying the same as urban revitalization continues and kids from the diverse suburbs think about moving into the city.
Same for North vs. South ATL. At some point the math won't make sense to move out to Hall County vs. South Fulton.
Yeah, the vast majority of growth has been in suburbia. I watched this video today on instagram comparing cities population form 1980 to 2022 and its crazy how the City of Atlanta population has been growing at a snails pace vs the metro. In 1980, the city population was like 425,000. In 2022, its 499,000. Meanwhile the metro went from 2 mill to 6 mill+ in that time frame. And yes, the city itself is pretty much 50% white/50% black, the metro is where the real diversity is at.
I see the city itself to get whiter as it gets more and more expensive (I think Atlanta lost majority black status like in 2020?). More hispanic and black growth in the metro. The white population will continue to move further out and out. The black population will continue to get more suburban.
I do wish Atlanta had ethnic enclaves like the northern cities. We should have a Chinatown (or well...a Koreatown), Little Italy, etc.
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Datdudebrah
If you take out black/white, City of ATL is probably one of the least diverse major cities in the country. Hard to imagine that staying the same as urban revitalization continues and kids from the diverse suburbs think about moving into the city.
Same for North vs. South ATL. At some point the math won't make sense to move out to Hall County vs. South Fulton.
What? Have you just not been in the City, Dekalb, Gwinnett, or Cobb lately? Hell even places like Forsyth, Clayton, and Cherokee counties are becoming diverse. Like I am really having a hard time understanding your comment. Aside from obvious ones like NYC and LA, other US cities aren't nearly diverse as you are making them out to be.
Back here in Reality Land, Atlanta is one of a small handful of cities with no single ethnic group with a majority of the population as of 2020. What we do have now is that the Black, Asians, and Latinos combined are now the majority of the population and we saw our first decline ever in non-Hispanic White population which will only accelerate as Baby Boomers age (non-Hispanic children in Metro Atlanta only make up a fraction of the population, which is the opposite for all other groups). As you can see with the data below, this will only intensify over the next several decades. In particular, both Asians and Latinos in Metro Atlanta are doubling their population every 10 years and much faster than in other parts of the country.
Yeah, the vast majority of growth has been in suburbia. I watched this video today on instagram comparing cities population form 1980 to 2022 and its crazy how the City of Atlanta population has been growing at a snails pace vs the metro. In 1980, the city population was like 425,000. In 2022, its 499,000. Meanwhile the metro went from 2 mill to 6 mill+ in that time frame. And yes, the city itself is pretty much 50% white/50% black, the metro is where the real diversity is at.
Interesting point here is that the city since about 2010 is growing in a way that it hasn't since before the 60's and has eclipsed its highest population on record sitting at ~521K per the ARC a couple of months ago.
So assuming we don't see anything like the white flight era happen again; in the new era of growth in the city its going to be interesting to watch. Especially over the next decade where we'll probably see some of the more drastic shifts in things like the demographic makeup of city leadership, significant gentrification of west side neighborhoods, significant increases in density in places that have been suburban or rural in the past.
We'll also see some changes in the suburbs play out as they are starting to lose space to sprawl, so how do Gwinnett, Cobb, and North Fulton deal with either much slower growth or a need to densify to accommodate all the people that come on here looking for a house up there.
What? Have you just not been in the City, Dekalb, Gwinnett, or Cobb lately? Hell even places like Forsyth, Clayton, and Cherokee counties are becoming diverse. Like I am really having a hard time understanding your comment. Aside from obvious ones like NYC and LA, other US cities aren't nearly diverse as you are making them out to be.
Back here in Reality Land, Atlanta is one of a small handful of cities with no single ethnic group with a majority of the population as of 2020. As you can see with the data below, this will only intensify over the next several decades. In particular, both Asians and Latinos in Metro Atlanta are doubling their population every 10 years and much faster than in other parts of the country.
I'm talking about the city of Atlanta not the metro in that post. Yes the metro is very diverse, the city itself isnt (if you ignore black / white population like I said earlier). To be more clear about it, the city of ATL has the lowest share of Asian / Hispanic people than any other major city in the country.
I'm open to being proved wrong on that, but the city is less than 10% asian/hispanic combined. I know its not higher than Boston / LA / Houston / Dallas / NYC / Miami / DC / SF / Seattle. I doubt you could even make a similar argument with white + another group in that group of cities.
Also I live in the city in Southwest Atlanta, I know what its like here.
Last edited by Datdudebrah; 09-15-2023 at 03:26 PM..
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ggplicks
Yeah, the vast majority of growth has been in suburbia. I watched this video today on instagram comparing cities population form 1980 to 2022 and its crazy how the City of Atlanta population has been growing at a snails pace vs the metro. In 1980, the city population was like 425,000. In 2022, its 499,000. Meanwhile the metro went from 2 mill to 6 mill+ in that time frame. And yes, the city itself is pretty much 50% white/50% black, the metro is where the real diversity is at..
This is nothing unique to Atlanta. Central cities saw a huge bump in the last few decades, but nowhere near their suburbs. I mean, that should be obvious since you can't build mile after mile of tract housing in most central cities these days, even in the City of Atlanta.
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
8,485 posts, read 14,988,805 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Datdudebrah
Interesting point here is that the city since about 2010 is growing in a way that it hasn't since before the 60's and has eclipsed its highest population on record sitting at ~521K per the ARC a couple of months ago.
So assuming we don't see anything like the white flight era happen again; in the new era of growth in the city its going to be interesting to watch. Especially over the next decade where we'll probably see some of the more drastic shifts in things like the demographic makeup of city leadership, significant gentrification of west side neighborhoods, significant increases in density in places that have been suburban or rural in the past.
Yeah, I'm not sure what that guy is talking about. It hasn't been easy, but the City of Atlanta is on a good growth clip right now and it's almost entirely residential. Since there aren't any large tracts of land left in the city, it'll be almost entirely dense infill and there is definitely a huge market for that here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Datdudebrah
We'll also see some changes in the suburbs play out as they are starting to lose space to sprawl, so how do Gwinnett, Cobb, and North Fulton deal with either much slower growth or a need to densify to accommodate all the people that come on here looking for a house up there.
My hope is that those counties start building up their town centers. A good example right now of what OTP town centers can replicate is downtown Chamblee. They've quietly built a dense residential downtown and it is connected by MARTA rail to the rest of the city.
Hopefully places like Norcross, Duluth, Marietta, Cumming, etc take note and do the same. Then, since all of these town centers have either a CSX or NS rail line running right through them, that will spur investment in regional commuter rail. The thing that most people realize is that Metro Atlanta didn't have the foresight to build the city around rail long ago is a myth. In fact, that's exactly how we built the city before the highways came along.
If passenger rail service didn't take a nose dive in the 1950s and 60s, you could catch a train to every single town center in Dekalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb county (sorry North Fulton, that area was still too rural to ever have passenger rail service back in the day.) How do I know this: Because it used to be something you could do and the rails that did it still exist...they only transport freight now except for the NS line that has Amtrak service.
Before anyone says this is impossible, you only need look to Chicago where they never dismantled their full network of regional rail and they share lines with the freight companies. Chicago has just as much if not more freight rail traffic than Atlanta, so it's a matter of will more so than a matter of logistic. Well some, most of those rail lines will need upgrades to accommodate modern rail service. With the demographic and political shifts we've seen recently in Metro Atlanta, I don't think we will have to wait too long. Hopefully.
Yeah, I'm not sure what that guy is talking about. It hasn't been easy, but the City of Atlanta is on a good growth clip right now and it's almost entirely residential. Since there aren't any large tracts of land left in the city, it'll be almost entirely dense infill and there is definitely a huge market for that here.
I agree transit is a huge issue for the region, but avoiding that rabbit hole that we have 100 threads about on here...
If you've ever read the book "White Flight" by Kevin Kruse, one of the things I found most interesting was that even back in that era the 1940's - 1960's ATL was bursting at the seams. A huge part of what pushed black people into white neighborhoods in the city was that there just wasn't enough housing available. Obviously we've built tons high rise housing today that didn't exist at that time, but we've also torn down high density project housing that did exist and average housing sizes have gone down nationwide.
It makes me wonder that if gentrification really takes hold in remaining underdeveloped parts of the city, how long does it take to get back to a similar place wrt housing availability.
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
8,485 posts, read 14,988,805 times
Reputation: 7333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Datdudebrah
I agree transit is a huge issue for the region, but avoiding that rabbit hole that we have 100 threads about on here...
If you've ever read the book "White Flight" by Kevin Kruse, one of the things I found most interesting was that even back in that era the 1940's - 1960's ATL was bursting at the seams. A huge part of what pushed black people into white neighborhoods in the city was that there just wasn't enough housing available. Obviously we've built tons high rise housing today that didn't exist at that time, but we've also torn down high density project housing that did exist and average housing sizes have gone down nationwide.
It makes me wonder that if gentrification really takes hold in remaining underdeveloped parts of the city, how long does it take to get back to a similar place wrt housing availability.
We’re already there. Prices are out of control for housing of all sorts in the city and there seems to be no end in sight. It’s all being driven by a lack of supply and developers can’t keep up. It’s great for them because they charge what they want, bad for consumers.
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