Year on Year Foreclosures up 27% and Home Sales down 15% (Post: apartment, rent)

[orbius]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Describe why these numbers are worrisome to you?

And, 27% of what? Foreclosures are a small sample size compared to the entire market in Austin. In some parts of the country, foreclosures are well over 50% of all sales. Not even close in Austin.

Like I said, go dig up some posts from 2008 and save yourself the time of retyping what people were saying back then about the doomed market, under even gloomier scenarios than now.

I'm not saying it's all puppy dogs and butterflies - 56% of all listings departed the MLS as failed sales efforts in August. This means there are still not enough buyers to absorb all inventory, and sellers are remaining stubborn on price, refusing to capitulate on price and instead saying "no thanks" to lower offers.

Steve

A 27% increase of homes either at or about to be foreclosed Steve you know what the numbers mean or should know stop attacking facts. Last year 1 in 700 and something houses were at or near foreclosure and now 1 in 500 and something were at or near foreclosure. A 27% increase in the total number of homes in the Austin market at or near foreclosure.

Whats the point about comments made in 2008. Lets stick to the hard data please. August was a really bad month for real estate lets leave it at that.

All anyone can do in this market is examine their needs, examine market data and make a decision on when and if to buy a house.

[austinnerd]

Originally Posted by orbius

A 27% increase of homes either at or about to be foreclosed Steve you know what the numbers mean or should know stop attacking facts. Last year 1 in 700 and something houses were at or near foreclosure and now 1 in 500 and something were at or near foreclosure. A 27% increase in the total number of homes in the Austin market at or near foreclosure.

Whats the point about comments made in 2008. Lets stick to the hard data please. August was a really bad month for real estate lets leave it at that.

All anyone can do in this market is examine their needs, examine market data and make a decision on when and if to buy a house.

Actually in July the number was 1 in 730, again, why cherry pick facts. The market is unstable with large swings on a month to month basis, choosing one month to base an argument on doesn't seem any better than hiding one's head in the sand and pretending that everything is great. And while your last statement is definitely spot on, even observing macro trends in Austin doesn't necessarily apply to specific neighborhoods, so really those numbers, while interesting, probably are not a wise choice to heavily weight in one's decision to buy into a specific piece of property.

[orbius]

I'm not cherry picking facts. The August data just came out and I posted it. A better question is why attack someone who posts facts? I even posted that sales for 2010 were up 2% compared to 2009 overall when posting that the August sales were down 15%. What more can I possibly do.

Its pretty pathetic that I expect to get attacked by realtors and assorted other people for merely posting real estate data on here. I think the fact that so few people will even acknowledge the data is bad before attacking me or the data says a lot more about how things really are than any data that I have posted.

[austinnerd]

Originally Posted by orbius

I'm not cherry picking facts. The August data just came out and I posted it. A better question is why attack someone who posts facts? I even posted that sales for 2010 were up 2% compared to 2009 overall when posting that the August data was down more than 2010. What more can I possibly do.

Its pretty pathetic that I expect to get attacked by realtors and assorted other people for merely posting real estate data on here. I think the fact that so few people will even acknowledge the data is bad before attacking me or the data says a lot more about how things really are than any data that I have posted.

My assertion is that fact that one month came out worse than the previous month (or the same month the previous year) doesn't necessarily imply that things are "bad" esp. when you expand the data that you are using to come to those conclusions. Are you implying that your posting of "facts" negates anyone's ability to analyze said facts as you yourself did in your original post. After all, you state that "you are entitled to your opinion", why am I not then entitled to mine? I too posted facts and provided color on those facts, same as you.

[orbius]

Originally Posted by austinnerd

My assertion is that fact that one month came out worse than the previous month (or the same month the previous year) doesn't necessarily imply that things are "bad" esp. when you expand the data that you are using to come to those conclusions. Are you implying that your posting of "facts" negates anyone's ability to analyze said facts as you yourself did in your original post. After all, you state that "you are entitled to your opinion", why am I not then entitled to mine? I too posted facts and provided color on those facts, same as you.

Bad foreclosure and sales numbers for August dont imply things were bad in the market it means it absolutely was a bad month.

Thats all.

[DenverBrian]

Originally Posted by trayanh

what I don't like is, most foreclosure homes are very old ones, typically built earlier than 2005.

Yeah, those ancient 2004 homes are just awful.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by orbius

Bad foreclosure and sales numbers for August dont imply things were bad in the market it means it absolutely was a bad month.

Thats all.

For the 1400 sellers who sold their homes at nearly 96% of list price in an average of 72 days, Aug wasn't a bad month.

For the almost 700 sellers who sold their homes in 53 days or less, August wan't a bad month.

For the buyers of all those homes, most of whom received interest rates around 4.5% (many even lower - we had one buyer buy down to 3.85%) and paid what they deemed to be an acceptable price, August wasn't a bad month to buy a home in Austin TX.

On the flip side, for the nearly 1800 sellers who were unable to attract an acceptable offer and withdrew or let their homes expire, August didn't treat them well.

Given all that, for whom was the market "good" and for whom was it "bad", and can such simplistic labels even be useful in describing conditions? It's a personal financial decision that either makes sense or not for the specific buyers and sellers who decide to enter the market.

I personally sold a house and bought a house in July. I took a bath on the one I sold and got a great deal on the one I bought? What kind of market was it for me in July?

Orbius, when you start a thread with links to what you obviously consider to be bad real estate news, you're making an editorial statement, or taking an opinion. When others call into question your interpretation of the "data" (we could even challenge what represents "data"), then that's what the forums are for. Don't get defensive because some of us have different viewpoints.

But thanks for starting the thread. It's an interesting topic and one that does dominate the news constantly.

Steve

[orbius]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

For the 1400 sellers who sold their homes at nearly 96% of list price in an average of 72 days, Aug wasn't a bad month.

For the almost 700 sellers who sold their homes in 53 days or less, August wan't a bad month.

For the buyers of all those homes, most of whom received interest rates around 4.5% (many even lower - we had one buyer buy down to 3.85%) and paid what they deemed to be an acceptable price, August wasn't a bad month to buy a home in Austin TX.

On the flip side, for the nearly 1800 sellers who were unable to attract an acceptable offer and withdrew or let their homes expire, August didn't treat them well.

Given all that, for whom was the market "good" and for whom was it "bad", and can such simplistic labels even be useful in describing conditions? It's a personal financial decision that either makes sense or not for the specific buyers and sellers who decide to enter the market.

I personally sold a house and bought a house in July. I took a bath on the one I sold and got a great deal on the one I bought? What kind of market was it for me in July?

Orbius, when you start a thread with links to what you obviously consider to be bad real estate news, you're making an editorial statement, or taking an opinion. When others call into question your interpretation of the "data" (we could even challenge what represents "data"), then that's what the forums are for. Don't get defensive because some of us have different viewpoints.

But thanks for starting the thread. It's an interesting topic and one that does dominate the news constantly.

Steve

Was that 96% of list on relisted homes Steve? Was the list price dropped Steve? If so how many times?

Oh that information isnt released is it Steve but you knew that. I certainly wouldnt want you to appear to be purposefully misleading potential buyers so I'll give you the opportunity to tell everyone that this data you posted isnt reliable.

The most reliable data buyers have since they dont get piricing information is foreclosure data. Pricing tends to trend with the number of foreclosures and total sales. The data I posted. Since buyers dont get individual pricing data on homes this is the closest they get to it.

The possibility exists that a person buying a house in this market might lose money. You can fight that fact until you're blue in the face. And in doing so you do your clients a disservice and if you talk them out of this possibility you share the blame if they end up underwater. I simply will not let anyone talk buyers out of this possibility Steve by trying to confuse the hard data that was posted.

It was a bad month, thats all.

[mark311]

I think the point here is that statistics and numbers can be thrown out for large areas both positive and negative, but they don't really mean that much unless we're really in a total economic depression and we're not. Show me these foreclosures where I can get some great deals right now in neighborhoods with sub $240K homes and exemplary schools. If there are any foreclosures in those areas, they still end up selling for a price high enough to where it isn't something that I would want to jump on as an investment.

You just need to be smart in what you're buying right now. I personally would stay away from any new home or any resale home over $280K. Even if I did lose $10K or $15K on my $220K home in the next two years, who cares? I'm locked in at a low interest rate and things will bounce back in 5 years or so. I also don't see anything wrong with waiting a couple years because it doesn't really look like home values are going to move drastically in either direction during that time. However, interest rates could creep back up.

And I wish there were more "bad months" so I could actually find some investment deals that don't require any work (ready to rent).

[trayanh]

majority are much older than 2004, typically not in good school district. don't know why.

Originally Posted by DenverBrian

Yeah, those ancient 2004 homes are just awful.