Austin's Colony?

[buffettjr]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

I'd look elsewhere. My main concerns:
1) There is always risk when buying in emerging areas for which the future build-out and development is hard to predict.
2) There is always risk in purchasing in the outer doughnut ring of a metro area because of future competition from the next newer/better neighborhood.
3) There is always risk buying a home in an area with poor schools.
4) There is always risk buying in an area over represented by investment properties (renters) and first time buyers.

If you're trying to stick to a sub-$150K pricepoint, check out the resale market in Leander in some of the 1990s neighborhoods. Great schools, nearby amenities, more diversified economically, reasonably easy access to Domain/Arboretum areas if that's what you want, established road infrustructure and predictable future growth patterns.

Steve

The risk Steve mentions is not to be taken lightly. I have a friend who purchased a large home in the new developments in Manor by the Shadow Glen Golf Course and it has been a complete disaster. I believe he paid somewhere between $220k - $240k. Manor was the next big thing because it isn't as far from downtown as Cedar Park, or so the story goes. Fast forward five years and HEB never moved out there, it's far from anything, the freeway is turning into a toll road, gas prices went up, the schools stayed bad, and the result was ruinous. If you search MLS listing for that area you will find half his entire neighborhood is for sale, with many of those being forclosures. You can buy a $230,000 home there for about $110,000 or so today...gigantic 2,000 - 4,000 square foot brick homes that were built just a few years ago. But you're going to be paying tolls and $4 gas to go to the grocery store 20 miles away, and the water bills average $400-$500 per month (just water) because they are in a MUD that made all kinds of projections for population growth that never panned out, so the enormous expenses have to be shared by fewer and fewer remaining residents.

When you buy in areas like you're describing you're often taking on large risk for very little reward. The reward is small because your house is very unlikely to ever appreciate at a rate faster than inflation because it's far away from town and Texas has lots of land where it's easy to build ever more houses. That doesn't mean it can't work out, but it is high risk, low reward. Tread carefully!

[Mrs.JT]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

The risk Steve mentions is not to be taken lightly. I have a friend who purchased a large home in the new developments in Manor by the Shady Hollow Golf Course and it has been a complete disaster. I believe he paid somewhere between $220k - $240k. Manor was the next big thing because it isn't as far from downtown as Cedar Park, or so the story goes. Fast forward five years and HEB never moved out there, it's far from anything, the freeway is turning into a toll road, gas prices went up, the schools stayed bad, and the result was ruinous. If you search MLS listing for that area you will find half his entire neighborhood is for sale, with many of those being forclosures. You can buy a $230,000 home there for about $110,000 or so today...gigantic 2,000 - 4,000 square foot brick homes that were built just a few years ago. But you're going to be paying tolls and $4 gas to go to the grocery store 20 miles away, and the water bills average $400-$500 per month (just water) because they are in a MUD that made all kinds of projections for population growth that never panned out, so the enormous expenses have to be shared by fewer and fewer remaining residents.

When you buy in areas like you're describing you're often taking on large risk for very little reward. The reward is small because your house is very unlikely to ever appreciate at a rate faster than inflation because it's far away from town and Texas has lots of land where it's easy to build ever more houses. That doesn't mean it can't work out, but it is high risk, low reward. Tread carefully!

True, but I think Austin's Colony isn't as bad as Manor/Elgin. The Manor/Elgin area seemed like they were merely pipedreams. I have a friend who bought a house about 10 year ago in Elgin, and she said all the home values in the area have dropped significantly. She plans to stay put for a while, but she wouldn't be able to sell her house even if she wanted to.

Don't compeletely rule it out. It wouldn't be on my list, but it might work for you, as I stated previously. You don't have children, so you are a bit more mobile. Just make sure you research every aspect of possible life in Austin's Colony. Maybe you can walk the neighborhood and talk to homewoners who have been there a while. One of my husband's old neighbors still lives there and seems to like it.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by buffettjr

The risk Steve mentions is not to be taken lightly....But you're going to be paying tolls and $4 gas to go to the grocery store 20 miles away, and the water bills average $400-$500 per month (just water) because they are in a MUD that made all kinds of projections for population growth that never panned out, so the enormous expenses have to be shared by fewer and fewer remaining residents.
...
When you buy in areas like you're describing you're often taking on large risk for very little reward.

You actually reminded me of another part of the risk, as you outlined, which is the uncertainty of the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership).

TCO is a common term in car sales. You can go to Edmunds.com and learn more about it. But consumers don't think like that about houses. I actually ran a TCO analysis a few years back comparing a home in Hutto behind a toll road to a home in south Austin. Both 2,000 sqft, the south Austin house was $200K, the Hutto house $150K, and I assumed a downtown worker/commuter.

Bottom line, the $150K home was NOT "cheaper" when you allowed for ALL components of TCO, including toll roads, extra gas used, utilities, property tax differential. I left appreciation neutral, though it's since been a big factor further discounting the Hutto house.

Home buying is as much about risk avoidance as it is finding what you want. Newer far flung neighborhoods really scare me, even in PUDs where things are supposedly a bit more planned out and predictable.

Steve

[tokamak]

We looked at asutins colony and though it was way too far out there in a field. kinda scary. something could happen to you and no one would ever know for weeks!! its also geh-TO.