Austin Market Slowing? (Cedar Park, Leander, West: sale, appliances, home sales)

[texasdreamin]

Do you think there is a slow down in the custom home builds, too, or did I miss something?

[hello13685]

I know, people always say, "Well, Austin is different," or "San Antonio is different." But that's not true. From 2004-2006, some neighborhoods in both cities went up 20-30% annually. That is not normal. It is a bubble. While it is not an Orange County bubble, it is a bubble nonetheless, and it's popping. I know that some of your salaries depend on the health of the housing industry, and that therefore there's a vested interest in believing that it's not a popping bubble, but it is.

[StillLookingToo]

Originally Posted by llkltk

Of course, sales of new homes offer incentives and reductions. Resales are different.

Excuse my ignorance, I didn't realize builder incentives of up to 20% of the list price and paying realtors 200% of a normal commission was standard operating procedure on new builds

[llkltk]

Originally Posted by StillLookingToo

Excuse my ignorance, I didn't realize builder incentives of up to 20% of the list price and paying realtors 200% of a normal commission was standard operating procedure on new builds

Please clarify.

[austin-steve]

Austin-Steve, or other agents, can you verify?

I'm running 3rd quarter stats today. I'll post them later.

Lot's of cross-signals from the market. For example, city-wide, median days on market is down to 28 days YTD for re-sale homes. that means half of all pre-owned homes that are listed in the Austin MLS sell in 28 days or less. And the prices keep rising. Hardly a suffering market.

Yet the growing inventory and shrinkage in buyers can't be ignored. And we have in fact felt a slowdown. The breakout by area stats will probably show, as usual, that the close-in areas are doing fine and the further out areas are not.

But arguing the Austin real estate market in terms of whether it's "good" or "bad" is like arguing about the national weather. There are areas and pockets and price ranges that perform at vastly different levels.

The real question is, as an owner who wants to sell, how is the market in your neighborhood? As a buyer, how's the market in the specific area you're interested in? The macro picture is valuable to track and follow, but the consequences are felt by individual buyers and sellers based on many factors.

Steve

[LinusK]

Steve - looking in my price range (150-225), I'm seeing many homes on the market for 60-90 days or more (and not selling). Where are these 28 day sales coming from?

Is it the more expensive homes? Are there a bunch of one-day sales I'm not seeing?

Or is it that only houses that are priced to market are selling, and the median's falling because the others aren't selling at all (and therefore aren't included in the median)?

Thanks.

Also, when you say prices are rising, you're talking year over year, right? Not month to month.

[FromCalitoSteinerRanch]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

The real question is, as an owner who wants to sell, how is the market in your neighborhood? As a buyer, how's the market in the specific area you're interested in? The macro picture is valuable to track and follow, but the consequences are felt by individual buyers and sellers based on many factors.

Steve

Okay, I survived another layoff, but I have to ask, what is going on in Steiner Ranch as your numbers may show?

[gigi927]

Cali, there is a realty group local to our area who I've seen provide some really good stats about RN. I can't put their link here as it would be advertising but thought you might find the following interesting.

if you compare their charts from Sep 06 and Sep 07, total closings in RN are up 22%, yet inventory is up 72%. July and August were up 61% and 66% respectively for inventory over 06.

They also show a chart of specific neighborhood inventory - plotting RP, Steiner, Long Canyon, Westminster and the other usual suspects across 2007. Interestingly, Steiner's plotlines are on a much steeper upswing re: inventory vs. the other neighborhoods in RN. I'm sure much of that is attributable to Steiner continuing to grow and build while the rest of RN is pretty built out. Steiner had about 89 homes in inventory in January of 2007. It has continued to add approximately 10 homes in inventory each month since then (with the exception of July, where inventory fell compared to June, and excepting June, which added 20 homes over May). Steiner now has 178 homes in inventory.

No data there right now on anything regarding median home prices, though....

[ExitusLSU]

Originally Posted by gigi927

Cali, there is a realty group local to our area who I've seen provide some really good stats about RN. I can't put their link here as it would be advertising but thought you might find the following interesting.

if you compare their charts from Sep 06 and Sep 07, total closings in RN are up 22%, yet inventory is up 72%. July and August were up 61% and 66% respectively for inventory over 06.

They also show a chart of specific neighborhood inventory - plotting RP, Steiner, Long Canyon, Westminster and the other usual suspects across 2007. Interestingly, Steiner's plotlines are on a much steeper upswing re: inventory vs. the other neighborhoods in RN. I'm sure much of that is attributable to Steiner continuing to grow and build while the rest of RN is pretty built out. Steiner had about 89 homes in inventory in January of 2007. It has continued to add approximately 10 homes in inventory each month since then (with the exception of July, where inventory fell compared to June, and excepting June, which added 20 homes over May). Steiner now has 178 homes in inventory.

No data there right now on anything regarding median home prices, though....

That's pretty funny consider this Saturday, while looking at some communities up in Cedar Park, one of the agent mentioned that a lot of people were moving into Cedar Park from Steiner Ranch because of taxes and the current price of the home in SR.

[FromCalitoSteinerRanch]

Originally Posted by gigi927

Cali, there is a realty group local to our area who I've seen provide some really good stats about RN. I can't put their link here as it would be advertising but thought you might find the following interesting.

if you compare their charts from Sep 06 and Sep 07, total closings in RN are up 22%, yet inventory is up 72%. July and August were up 61% and 66% respectively for inventory over 06.

They also show a chart of specific neighborhood inventory - plotting RP, Steiner, Long Canyon, Westminster and the other usual suspects across 2007. Interestingly, Steiner's plotlines are on a much steeper upswing re: inventory vs. the other neighborhoods in RN. I'm sure much of that is attributable to Steiner continuing to grow and build while the rest of RN is pretty built out. Steiner had about 89 homes in inventory in January of 2007. It has continued to add approximately 10 homes in inventory each month since then (with the exception of July, where inventory fell compared to June, and excepting June, which added 20 homes over May). Steiner now has 178 homes in inventory.

No data there right now on anything regarding median home prices, though....

thanks for that Gigi! Since I think there are about 3000 houses now in SR, then 178 homes is about 5.9% of the homes on the market. Since I am not a realtor, I don't know if that indicates a tight micro market or not, but it is certainly better than 10% or 15% on the market. I don't know of any market with that many, so just pulling the 10 or 15 out of thin air as an unsubstantiated refernce figure.

I guess I would like to know how many are closing each month. It is it 10 homes a month, then I will be curious why, but if it's 30 homes a month, then that is still less that 6 months inventory, assuming nothing is added each month...