Is Austin Creating Another Housing Bubble? (Spring, Van: condos, credit, loans)

[llkltk]

Originally Posted by Komeht

Come back in late July or August for a week or two and then decide how you like it.

I don't agree with this. You get used to the heat. It still gets cold enough here. I'd say the hot months are late June-mid October. That's not too bad. Don't let the weather keep you from moving here unless you hate sunshine! This is a great city.

[hoffdano]

Originally Posted by txreturnee

I don't know, I saw a 2BR/2B on MLK Blvd listed for $986K which is either a bubble or an insane seller.

Please. The price of one property does not indicate a trend, a median, or an average.

[passionatearts]

I bought my house in Skyview (near Koenig and Lamar) for $205,000 in 2009 and now houses in my neighborhood that are smaller than mine are being listed for $300,000 + and are selling in 7 - 10 days. Is this trend going on all over Central Austin? If so, that's insane.

[speeddev1l]

Originally Posted by llkltk

I don't agree with this. You get used to the heat. It still gets cold enough here. I'd say the hot months are late June-mid October. That's not too bad. Don't let the weather keep you from moving here unless you hate sunshine! This is a great city.

I actually grew up overseas in the tropics where 100F is common so i'm ok with the heat, I just don't do too well in the cold. About 15 years ago I also briefly lived in the south (near Montgomery, AL) and although it was a boring place to live I don't recall anything too unbearable in terms of weather. I've also traveled extensively to 55 countries and lived in 4 countries and nowhere was I unhappy due to weather or any other issues.

Most Californians (and a whole lot of people outside CA as well) keep warning me of the "dire" consequences of leaving California. While it is true that California has perfect weather the premium you pay for it borders on the INSANE.

People sitting in Austin, Texas may complain about their city (which is very unfortunate to not be proud of your own city ) but the grass looks greener on the other side. Living in a California metro area is uber expensive and you will be extremely strained financially unless you make tons of money... do you want to live with that kind of stress just to live in a perfect climate?

In addition the people here in Orange County are extremely materialistic and superficial giving high importance to the cars they drive and keeping up with the joneses. If you are of that mindset you will do well here, if you're like me who thinks that this kind of influence is bad to raise kids in then you will think twice.

[riaelise]

Originally Posted by speeddev1l

I actually grew up overseas in the tropics where 100F is common so i'm ok with the heat, I just don't do too well in the cold. About 15 years ago I also briefly lived in the south (near Montgomery, AL) and although it was a boring place to live I don't recall anything too unbearable in terms of weather. I've also traveled extensively to 55 countries and lived in 4 countries and nowhere was I unhappy due to weather or any other issues.

Most Californians (and a whole lot of people outside CA as well) keep warning me of the "dire" consequences of leaving California. While it is true that California has perfect weather the premium you pay for it borders on the INSANE.

People sitting in Austin, Texas may complain about their city (which is very unfortunate to not be proud of your own city ) but the grass looks greener on the other side. Living in a California metro area is uber expensive and you will be extremely strained financially unless you make tons of money... do you want to live with that kind of stress just to live in a perfect climate?

In addition the people here in Orange County are extremely materialistic and superficial giving high importance to the cars they drive and keeping up with the joneses. If you are of that mindset you will do well here, if you're like me who thinks that this kind of influence is bad to raise kids in then you will think twice.

No, native Austinites don't really complain about their city. In fact, they are really passionate about their city. What some do complain about are the ripple effects of the Transplant Horde.

[TexasHorseLady]

Originally Posted by txreturnee
I don't know, I saw a 2BR/2B on MLK Blvd listed for $986K which is either a bubble or an insane seller.

Originally Posted by hoffdano

Please. The price of one property does not indicate a trend, a median, or an average.

I looked up that listing. It is for sale for the value of the land, which means location, location, location. It's being sold to investors or developers with the vacant lot next door, and has a view of the Austin skyline. It will likely be turned into condos or some such. Not indicative of the market as a whole at all.

[Chip_Vanilla]

Originally Posted by RoadWarrior12

First. Make sense.

Can't have huge demand, and an "exodus beginning"

Second. Have sense.

Sellers never "gouge" buyers. Buyers pay what they want to pay.

I don't think we're going to see the run-up that we saw last spring, and this is typically one of the lowest inventory periods of the year. You're basing math on flawed data.

Well, I think I do make sense. The exodus I propose is amongst those residents taking advantage of outside (or others already in town that want to "move up") buyers who for whatever reason -- a job offer, a retirement plan, etc -- want to buy in Austin. So an over-priced property suddenly becomes plausible when the demand for all housing rises to exceed the supply, just like what happened in SoCal over the recent decades and led to an impoverished interior market where one can find bargain properties in a town like Hesperia but nothing affordable in a city that was always considered third-rate but now it's in the vaguely general area that promises the good life so it becomes inflated too. Then when the bubble bursts that million-dollar townhouse in Lompoc is suddenly worth half what it sold for and there's no real incentive for continuing to pay the mortgage when rent is now so much cheaper in the same area. Austin has an unusually high % of renters already and I wonder if the trend for pricey housing is a sign of residents who have found greener pastures elsewhere and, like the lucky ones that sold in SoCal at the height of the RE bubble, hope to find themselves with a fat wad of cash they can spend on a comparative bargain in some other city. That buyers are forced to pay whatever the market will bear is no evidence that the inflated price is justified in the long run and hints at a natural adjustment to come that will be very unpleasant for anyone who buys at the height of the bubble -- if that's what it is; nobody seems to see it when there's a feeding frenzy. I'm just suggesting this scenario as a possible explanation for the trend I observe. I proposed several alternatives and posters seem to feel decades of bad city planning is the real culprit; if so, why don't they demand better government?

[speeddev1l]

Just for the record I have been living in Southern California since 1998 and the weather being perfect is an absolute myth... perfection does not exist anywhere, we do have our overcast days, we do have our days when it rains like crazy, we do have our days where it continuously rains for days on end, we do have our days where it's windy as heck, we do have our days where it suddenly goes into a heatwave and is 100F.

In addition, most of the good weather is enjoyed by a tiny minority within 5 miles of the coast with astronomically expensive real estate... the rest living in the valley, the inland empire and san bernadino counties do not enjoy weather that good. In the valley it's frequently in the triple digits in summers...although the saving grace is that it is dry heat and not humid.

Also note there is significant amount of smog in this city due to the topography of the area the pollution is trapped by the mountains.

so yes, while it is generally better weather than most parts of the country it hardly is some kind of climate controlled air conditioned utopia.

Californians pay through the nose to live here and obviously have to find a justification for why they are paying so much money... it's natural to find a convenient explanation for that... it must be the perfect weather and that's why I am paying $1 million for a home that nationally would cost 30% of that.

[CptnRn]

This increase in housing prices has been predicted for over 3 years. It is clearly a result of the recession, which dried up housing financing for several years, so very little was being built, while enormous numbers of people continued to move to Austin because it had jobs. It is purely a matter of supply and demand, lots of demand and decreased housing stock available, both houses and apartments are in short supply.

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by speeddev1l

Just for the record I have been living in Southern California since 1998 and the weather being perfect is an absolute myth... perfection does not exist anywhere, we do have our overcast days, we do have our days when it rains like crazy, we do have our days where it continuously rains for days on end, we do have our days where it's windy as heck, we do have our days where it suddenly goes into a heatwave and is 100F.

In addition, most of the good weather is enjoyed by a tiny minority within 5 miles of the coast with astronomically expensive real estate... the rest living in the valley, the inland empire and san bernadino counties do not enjoy weather that good. In the valley it's frequently in the triple digits in summers...although the saving grace is that it is dry heat and not humid.

Also note there is significant amount of smog in this city due to the topography of the area the pollution is trapped by the mountains.

so yes, while it is generally better weather than most parts of the country it hardly is some kind of climate controlled air conditioned utopia.

Californians pay through the nose to live here and obviously have to find a justification for why they are paying so much money... it's natural to find a convenient explanation for that... it must be the perfect weather and that's why I am paying $1 million for a home that nationally would cost 30% of that.

uh - sorry - you have absolutely no clue whatsoever. I lived in LA for 5 years. The amount of 100+ days in that time could be counted on 1 had.

We can dozens and dozens of 100+ days (consecutively). That tiny minority - that's where a great deal of the population lives because. . .it's great weather, close to the coast and highly highly desirable. There are handfuls of overcast day - none cold, most cool. And yes, the Santa Annas blow once or twice a year and it becomes sort of unpleasant for a few days each time. . .but no, that is nothing compared to the weather we get in Texas.

Obviously real estate prices are high, but it's as close to a climate utopia as exists anywhere as long as you like the days 76 degrees and sunny. If you don't like 76 degrees and sunshine then LA isn't for you.

But there is an absolute gulf between that kind of climate (even with the rare spike in temps) and Texas where it is ALWAYS hot from May though September and not just kinda hot, but really fricken hot.