Is Austin real estate market due for an adjustment in 2009? (Howe: comparable sales, transplants)

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by ioda006

• Austin was hit by the housing boom, but not as bad as FL, CA, etc. (obvious). Their numbers inflated 2x+. Austin's went up less than, but close to 2x.

Where do you get that Austin pricing went up 2X during that period. I am assuming you consider the housing boom to be from around 2003-2007. Looking at our old house in Austin which we sold in January 2001, using Zillow's Zestimate (which is usually a little generous) the value only increased by about 33% in eight years.

[S6Sputnik]

Originally Posted by Jennibc

[/list]Where do you get that Austin pricing went up 2X during that period. I am assuming you consider the housing boom to be from around 2003-2007. Looking at our old house in Austin which we sold in January 2001, using Zillow's Zestimate (which is usually a little generous) the value only increased by about 33% in eight years.

That sounds more like it!!!

[AustinGuy]

Well, Austin's real estate market just made the Wall Street Journal:

"Bigger in Texas? Capital's Real-Estate Glut Counts"

Real-Estate Glut in Austin, Texas - WSJ.com

The article focuses on the overbuilding of apartments and office space here.

[Jennibc]

I thought this thread was about the housing market. That is homes for sale, not commercial real estate or apartment vacancies. I suppose that if rents are low because of a glut or apartments that will serve as a disincentive to those on the fence about purchasing homes.

[EllenArlingtonPark]

Originally Posted by AustinGuy

Texas is a boom and bust state. I'd say the chances of us entering the "bust" phase are relatively high given the dramatic decline in the price of oil these last several months.

How that will impact the Austin job market and housing market is unknown at this point, but it is likely to be a negative impact.

Cental Texas has been in a boom for many years and I think bust is going to happen. Home values went up so fast in Austin it was truly frightening. It has to level out, the wages just cannot sustain it. The sellers were the big winners. Most buyers bought at the top and probobly won't see a significant equity in their homes for another 5-10 years.

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by EllenArlingtonPark

Cental Texas has been in a boom for many years and I think bust is going to happen. Home values went up so fast in Austin it was truly frightening. It has to level out, the wages just cannot sustain it. The sellers were the big winners. Most buyers bought at the top and probobly won't see a significant equity in their homes for another 5-10 years.

Didn't Austin experience an economic downturn after the dotcom implosion circa 2001-2002? I know several people that lost their jobs during that period (of course, after 9-11, every part of the country was down economically for a couple of years)

[Blackfield]

Thanks for the great replies.

Before I moved here, I lived in Houston for seven years. During that period, the home price increased in modest rate, about 3-6% annually.

Per tamu.edu link, the average home price in Austin increased roughly around 6-8% annually between 2004-2007.

Although I do not expect to see a 20% price drop in TX in 2009, I also can't see it could sustain the appreciation. We already start seeing slowing down in home appreciation in 2008(again based on tamu.edu).

Have a safe holiday!

[Exiled Texan]

Who knows, but someone I know is bidding on a tarrytown foreclosure investor flip. Not sure the bank will take their offer as it is an extreme low ball.

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by Blackfield

Per tamu.edu link, the average home price in Austin increased roughly around 6-8% annually between 2004-2007.

TCAD had a 10% cap on how much your home could go up each year and, for me, it hit that cap every year.

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

TCAD had a 10% cap on how much your home could go up each year and, for me, it hit that cap every year.

That may be what the state is assessing for tax purposes, but aren't the numbers the other poster cites from home sales, and those would seem to be more a reflection of home value. At least much more than a group of bureaucrats sitting around and determining values for the sake of collecting taxes.