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35 years from now, autonomous cars will be normal. There will be self-driving car lanes on all the highways the way there are car pool lanes now.
So in 35 years we're going to widen every single highway in America to add a self-driving car lane? You are dreaming! We can't even afford to maintain the roads we already have.
I think some people who live in urban areas are a little out of touch with how the rest of the country operates.
It's gonna be a glorious 2050 for people with money and relatively bleak for those who don't... kinda like today!
Most folks won't own a car because they will be too expensive and will instead rely on public transportation and a rideshare subscription where they can call up an autonomous vehicle at will.
Most of the cars themselves will feature electric propulsion, will go 400+ miles on a single charge and will recharge faster than you can fill a tank of gas. They will also have self-healing body panels (no more worries about dings and scratches) and will be capable of changing colors to suit the tastes of their owners/renters.
There will still be gearheads, car shows and car fans but they will be more like horse owners today... in other words, gas powered cars and driving yourself around will be a hobby. Your membership card for this club will be a driver's license... over the next 30 years fewer and fewer people will have one and the requirements to have/keep a license will become more stringent. There will still be plenty of classic cars from the Model T to the last manually operated gas guzzlers of the late 2020s; at that time, game-changing advances in battery power/recharging speed will render the internal combustion engine obsolete overnight and auto manufacturers will switch over to electric power entirely in just a couple model years.
I don't get too worked up about articles like this. Their authors and their employers live and die by how many clicks they get, so it's in their best interest to shock and awe no matter how realistic or unrealistic their predictions are.
I think autonomous cars will displace some, but not all self-driven cars. There will always be enthusiasts, and for a long while there will still be internal-combustion engines. Somewhere along the road to electric vehicles displacing 25+% of gasoline-powered vehicles on the road, we'll realize that producing enough of these huge battery packs to power tens of millions of cars has substantial environmental externalities, we'll see prices of the rare-earth metals used to make batteries shoot up, just as the price of oil did in the 70s. Those who really care about the environment will drive small vehicles, powered by efficient gasoline or natural gas-powered engines, they'll hang onto them a long time rather than trading in every three years, and they'll use them primarily for getting groceries and going on road trips, preferring to walk or cycle for day-to-day commuting.
Brock Yates flat out said that by 2000 there would be no more V8 engines.
Brock Yates always was a damn fool.
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Originally Posted by Electrician4you
Yeah I guess if everyone can afford 100,000 dollar cars we would all have one. It's just not going to be in 2050.
Actually, the average price of a new car/truck right now is $33,560. By 2050, using an inflation rate of 3%, that same car would cost $94,433. So yes, we all will by buying more expensive cars... because they will cost more.
By 2050... I can't say I care too much. I'll be retired by then, and the only thing I really plan to do is lounge around the pool and drink margaritas and pina coladas all day. Go out to dinner somewhere along the beach, go home and go to bed. Repeat.
So in 35 years we're going to widen every single highway in America to add a self-driving car lane? You are dreaming! We can't even afford to maintain the roads we already have.
I think some people who live in urban areas are a little out of touch with how the rest of the country operates.
no we wont have to widen anything with self driving cars. the idea is that self driving cars will be able to operate closer together, and essentially be able to double, approximately, the number of cars that can operate on the current roads without issue. in theory traffic accidents would be virtually eliminated, to traffic snarls would be a thing of the past due to collisions.
[quote=Nepenthe;42581663]Interesting bit of writing in the wake of CES where self-driving and electric power were the big stories automotively. Here are a few quick excerpts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
It is newly 2050. We’ve just had one year with no traffic fatalities in the Western world — none, no car-crash deaths, no pedestrians mowed down in city crosswalks.
If the "Pedestrians" wouldn't go staggering into the street against the "Don't Walk" light, don't just dash across the street AND look carefully when crossing we'd have way fewer than we do now.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Notions of vehicle ownership and marque prestige eroded. Access to transportation became as important as transportation ownership. Vehicle sharing became common.
Not sharing my ride unless you're paying the freight charge....GAG (Gas, ass or grass)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
But technology changed all of that — electronically enforced speed limits, matrix-managed transportation systems, and the simple value of using time in a self-driving car to read or actually get something done.
Great, more work time because you can't get everything done AT the job.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Horsepower for horsepower’s sake became less and less of a consumer concern. More important was a car’s ability to park itself, to come to you without you going to it, and its ability to keep you connected with everything important to your world while you are in transit.
I never understood the reason to build a car that can do 120 mph and we have speed limits for 60/70....
Actually, the average price of a new car/truck right now is $33,560. By 2050, using an inflation rate of 3%, that same car would cost $94,433. So yes, we all will by buying more expensive cars... because they will cost more.
By 2050... I can't say I care too much. I'll be retired by then, and the only thing I really plan to do is lounge around the pool and drink margaritas and pina coladas all day. Go out to dinner somewhere along the beach, go home and go to bed. Repeat.
But like anything else the income has to be there too. In 35 years I'll be making 300,000 a year. Well actually I'll be lounging around a pool, drinking a beer too. All were doing is adding zeros to prices really as time goes on. Either way if I need a car and all there is to buy is electric car/truck that's what I'll buy. I just don't think that electric cars are going to be the only thing out. Are they going to be available and more advanced then today? Sure. Are there going to be self driving cars? Sure. I just dint think you will completely get rid of all gas powered cars in the world. Just not gonna happen. Eventually? Sure you'll run out of oil because it's not easily replenished, but there will be a synthetic alternative or a natural oil conversion. To won't be a poof gas engines gone. Only way I see it happening is if the government just makes gas cars illegal. Which creates its own logistical issues.
The first production electric car was in 1884, and by 1900 electric cars outnumbered gas powered models 38% to 22%. Electric is not a new idea, it is actually the "old tech" in the automotive world, right up there with steam power. Electric was pretty much abandoned because of range issues and charging issues, the same problems it faces 115 years later.
Yeah, I remember something where there were electric delivery trucks, only had a range of a few blocks, which was decent for them, as they were like shop trucks, going building to building. Thr only alt fuel I'm eill to mess with, is steam.
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