Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
No. Never. Think about what is moved by truck and rail. Cars. Oil. Coal. Livestock. Food. Non perishable goods. It is much more expensive to fly than to truck in every single situation.
Last edited by caverunner17; 04-18-2016 at 08:05 AM..
Personally, I think rail is probably the most cost effective way to move goods. However, there are limitations. You still have to move stuff from the rail stations along surface roads to their destination. Water shipping is also cost effective, but again, limited.
There is no way air transport will ever be more cost effective.
Now, if we ever figure out transporters, all bets are off!
Unless, as the FedEx ad said, "It absolutely positively has to be there overnight", air will never supplant ground shipping for getting freight anywhere. A graphic showing the costs, from several years ago.
i am going to surprise people here and say YES it is possible for aviation to put the trucking industry out of business.
that said, it will require a super massive investment in infrastructure and pilots to do so. companies are going to have to have heliports in small towns, a massive investment in heavy lift helicopters, like the flying crane, as well as a massive investment in airports designed for handling cargo only, and a huge variety of cargo planes.
remember that trucks haul goods just about everywhere, from the big cities to the small town, to tiny out of the way places. also understand that hauling the same amount of goods to the same amount of places and eliminating trucks means helicopters, millions of them, flying around everywhere, and they need to haul the same amount of stuff as well. and if you thought the fuel surcharges for deliver were high, imagine the surcharge for a helicopter
While I don't think that it would put trucking out of business, I'd really like to see lighter-than-air transportation having a bigger role in the in cargo industry, and eventually in passenger transport as well.
Please see the link in my thread "Lighter-than-air news".
i am going to surprise people here and say YES it is possible for aviation to put the trucking industry out of business.
that said, it will require a super massive investment in infrastructure and pilots to do so. companies are going to have to have heliports in small towns, a massive investment in heavy lift helicopters, like the flying crane, as well as a massive investment in airports designed for handling cargo only, and a huge variety of cargo planes.
remember that trucks haul goods just about everywhere, from the big cities to the small town, to tiny out of the way places. also understand that hauling the same amount of goods to the same amount of places and eliminating trucks means helicopters, millions of them, flying around everywhere, and they need to haul the same amount of stuff as well. and if you thought the fuel surcharges for deliver were high, imagine the surcharge for a helicopter
Aside from the massive investments in the infrastructure, you would also likely have MASSIVE protests from home and land owners who are being forced out (eminent domain?) for the expansion of the airports and helipads/ports.
Another consideration from someone who's been flying a while: weather. When the weather is down to 1/4 of a mile in fog, trucks and trains still operate. Winds of 40 knots ground many aircraft, but not trucks. Lightning, hail, plagues of locusts all ground aircraft but not surface transport.
A truck accident often isn't pretty, but a helicopter accident is usually fatal and likely destroys the cargo as well.
On a couple of occasions, I've guest-lectured an economics course for a friend; my specialty is transport economics. I usually begin by pushing a small wooden block across the desk surface (lots of friction), then put it in a small basin of water (moves with the flick of a finger), then put a couple of pencils under it to act as "wheels".
Point being: The cost to move an item depends mostly on the effort (energy) necessary to move it.
When the Erie Canal was completed back in 1825, the cost of shipping a load of grain (the raw material of almost all human progress of the day) from Chicago to New York via the Great Lakes and canal dropped by a factor of twenty. That single advance set off an expansion that lasted until the Panic of 1837.
The point being: small, infrequent, personal shipments get individual attention, because their value, and importance to the customer is much higher. But it is a lower cost for the activities that move in large volumes that find their way down to the bottom line over the long run.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 04-18-2016 at 10:56 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
