Stick A Fork In It, It's Done - Qantas Cancels A380 Order

[Vision67]

Read this:

https://simpleflying.com/has-the-boe...e-airbus-a380/

https://youtu.be/rzJA6iS39i8

[wasel]

Air France is starting A380 service to ATL this spring. It's already in the reservation system.


(The retrofits were already done a while back at a cost of about $45M for Korean Air. However, KA ceased the A380 service and uses the 747-800 now.)

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by silverkris

What Airbus didn't bet on was the development of point to point direct flights with smaller aircraft - which Boeing bet on with the 787 program.

I would say that Airbus didn't bet on so many new airports being developed that could handle the point to point direct flights. Many Asian routes were reasonably short but incredibly busy compared to routes in the USA. Because the routes were so busy, Boeing was selling large number of B747s in Asia.

Airbus expected to make a killing in Japan and China. Instead, they sold only a token number of planes in those countries,
5 : CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY
3 : All Nippon Airlines

Japan Airlines was the largest worldwide customer for the B747.

Airbus never really expected to sell the A380 in the USA as the US airlines had stopped ordering the B747 in the 1990s.

[silverkris]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

I would say that Airbus didn't bet on so many new airports being developed that could handle the point to point direct flights. Many Asian routes were reasonably short but incredibly busy compared to routes in the USA. Because the routes were so busy, Boeing was selling large number of B747s in Asia.

Airbus expected to make a killing in Japan and China. Instead, they sold only a token number of planes in those countries,
5 : CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY
3 : All Nippon Airlines

Japan Airlines was the largest worldwide customer for the B747.

Airbus never really expected to sell the A380 in the USA as the US airlines had stopped ordering the B747 in the 1990s.

Japan is a prime example of short haul but high density routes (domestically) - Boeing developed some 747 versions that were exclusive to the Japanese market, such as the 747SR and the 747-400D (has no winglets). The Japanese market for the A380 just didn't happen - JAL's 2010 bankruptcy hastened the shedding of its 747 fleet for a more fuel efficient fleet. ANA's three A380s happened by way of acquiring bankrupt Skymark and picking up that carrier's cancelled A380s.

And yes, the USA was not a market for the A380 period.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by silverkris

And yes, the USA was not a market for the A380 period.

Prior to the vote for a new airport in San Diego in 2006, a team of aviation experts was hired who wrote a giant report that said the single runway airport was going to reach capacity as early as 2016. My objection to the analysis was the contention that the Passengers per Departure (PPD) would not exceed 100 people by the year 2030.

Needless to say the voters did not approve the new airport plan, and by the following year the PPD was already above 100. Today the average departure at the airport is well above that projection.

Passengers versus Capacity San Diego Airport 2018
Passengers per Departure 132.3
Estimated Seats per Departure 148.4
Estimated Load Factor 81.6%

That said, the next critically constrained airport in the USA (Las Vegas) is already operating at one of the highest PPD ratio in the country. Building a new runway at Las Vegas is impossible.

While we may not need a new 600 seats aircraft, we need a lot more jets flying around with over 200 seats. Our runways simply can't handle the capacity.

[orca17]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

That said, the next critically constrained airport in the USA (Las Vegas) is already operating at one of the highest PPD ratio in the country. Building a new runway at Las Vegas is impossible.

There has been talk for years about building a new airport south of the city on a large patch of open desert between Las Vegas and Jean. Depending upon who you talk to, this would be a cargo-only operation, or it would also include international flights. I haven't heard talk of this in a long time, so the idea is either dead or dormant.


You are definitely right about not being able to add another runway. There simply isn't room to add one.