Quote:
Originally Posted by loose cannon
I have always stuck up for Abreu. When Eskin and the puppets in Philly dogged him I was one of those who staunchly defended him. I have been a fan through thick and thin. Now he is asking to be traded because he is not going to get playing time. Look, you are getting older. You had career lows last year .253 8 60. The team vastly improved itself in the offseason. Accept your role as an aging bench player and enjoy the ride on the obvious AL West Champions and AL Pennant winners.
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Why is he wrong?
Disclaimer: I haven't heard what he said, and only have your post to go on.
I believe that he is a free agent after the season. To maximize his potential earnings next year, he needs to perform this season. Playing part time will lead to Abreu getting a smaller contract next season.
Abreu is clearly on the downside of his career, the question is how much does he have left?
In 2009 he was worth 3 fWAR, which is worth about $15 million.
In 2010 he was worth 2 fWAR, which is worth about $10 million.
In 2011 he was worth .5 fWAR, which is worth about $2.5 million.
In 2011 he was basically an identical hitter to how he performed in 2010.
2010: 13% BB rate, 19.8% K rate, 47% ground ball rate, 17% line drive rate, 36% fly ball rate.
2011: 13% BB rate, 19.3 % K rate, 47% ground ball rate, 21% line drive rate, 31% fly ball rate.
In 2011 he traded some flyballs for line drives. That's the biggest real difference.
In 2010 12% of Abreu's flyballs went for home runs
In 2011 7% of Abreu's flyballs went for home runs
Less flyballs and less home runs per fly ball led to a dramatic decrease in home runs in 2011.
But, HR/FB can fluctuate greatly from year to year. Sometimes it is because the player isn't hitting balls as hard. Sometimes it is just luck.
I'm not convinced that Abreu is done as a player.
It's in his best interest to play full time in 2012 and show that he isn't done yet.