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Granted last year Kemp probably should have won it but the writers ruled that having a team in the playoff hunt that a players performance is more important than a player that is not (IE no pressure and playing with pressure). So far this year I don't know you can say Braun is not the NL MVP this year? just look at his number compared to last year. 24 games to play as of Sunday morning 9.8.12 Would you vote for him?
I'd rank them:
Andrew McCutchen
Ryan Braun
Michael Bourn
David Wright
The difference between McCutchen's offense and Braun's isn't as big as people might think.
Braun: .388/.603 (OBP/SLG)
McCutchen: .408/.561
McCutchen makes outs substantially less frequently than Braun. Not making outs is the single most important thing that one can do with the bat.
We can measure offense reliably and Braun has been worth about 6 more runs than McCutchen.
Offense isn't the only part of the game though. Defense should certainly be factored in.
McCutchen plays the more difficult defensive position, centerfield. He's not an outstanding defensive center fielder, but neither is Braun a good defensive outfielder.
This is why I have McCutchen slightly over Braun at this point.
Similarly, I have Michael Bourn 3rd. Bourn plays a demanding defensive position and plays it spectacularly. He's one of the best defensive players in the game. His offense certainly isn't at the same level as Braun's or McCutchen's, he's produced about 30 less runs this year, but he saves about 15 more runs defensively than McCutchen in CF and 20 more runs than Braun. Bourn is 3rd, but a distant 3rd.
David Wright is also having a great year with the bat. He's produced about 30 runs - a bit off of the leaders while playing improved defense at 3rd base. He's close to Bourn but no match for Braun and your September 8th MVP Andrew McCutchen.
Mike trout is the AL Rookie of the year, MVP, CF Gold glove winner, CF Silver Slugger and guy you'd want to knock up your daughter and wife.
In that the Brewers will not be in the post season, I'm confident that the voters will rely on that as a reason not to vote for Braun, masking the real reason they aren't voting for him which will be to punish him for winning the award the previous year while using PEDs. I would be very surprised to see Braun win again.
Andrew McCutchen has more going on for him. He not only leads in WAR, but he also has the flashiest slash line, the one which will be most impressive to voters who refuse to take WAR into consideration. Further, even if the Pirates don't reach the post season, their long history of futility will make this year's competitive effort equal to making the post season in terms of producing MVP candidates.
Bourn's WAR will probably be overlooked because his slash line does not wow people, and on the surface it does not appear that he has been any more valuable than has been his teammate Jason Heyward.
David Wright will be hurt by the Mets non contending status.
I would not be surprised to see either or both of Yadier Molina/Buster Posey draw more votes than Bourn or Wright, perhaps outpolling Braun as well.
None of the above should be taken as argument about the actual merits, I am merely handicapping the race.
I think if anyone from a non-playoff team gets the NL MVP it will be McCutcheon. Voters very rarely give the MVP to someone from a non-playoff team. Yet, I think the case for McCutcheon is very strong. The Pirates have been in contention all year, which in itself is a feat for that organization. He has had a tremendous year and is worthy based on his numbers.
Braun, with the steroid thing hanging over his head, and the fact the Brewers have not been nearly as much of a contender (2 under 500 right now), really hurts him.
I could see some votes going to maybe Holliday or Posey too, since the Cards and Giants looking to likely be playoff bound.
to punish him for winning the award the previous year while using PEDs.
I think you can leave out the "PE" part of it. If you make the assumption that he used "PE"Ds in 2011 and that he wouldn't use them again in fear of getting caught in 2012 (which is a reasonable assumption)... how much "performance enhancement" did it really provide? His clean 2012 season looks pretty darn close to his allegedly "enhanced" 2011 season.
I think you can leave out the "PE" part of it. If you make the assumption that he used "PE"Ds in 2011 and that he wouldn't use them again in fear of getting caught in 2012 (which is a reasonable assumption)... how much "performance enhancement" did it really provide? His clean 2012 season looks pretty darn close to his allegedly "enhanced" 2011 season.
I think that the lesson of PEDs has been .."Make no assumptions." Before Braun was caught last season, did you suspect him of being a user? Did you suspect Melky Cabrera?
You are assuming Braun is now playing clean. Okay, that, or he has gotten better at fooling the testers.
Back to back MVPs is no rarity, it has been done by a dozen players before. What I think is a great oddity, though, is that it's been done by at least one player from every position:
Thomas, Punols and Bonds were the last three, so the first nine players to do it played each of the nine field positions (counting Murphy as LF, which he played quite a bit in his MVP years).
I think that the lesson of PEDs has been .."Make no assumptions." Before Braun was caught last season, did you suspect him of being a user? Did you suspect Melky Cabrera?
You are assuming Braun is now playing clean. Okay, that, or he has gotten better at fooling the testers.
Make no assumptions... You are assuming he was "dirty" in 2011. The test was tainted. It wasn't taken to the lab in a timely manner or stored properly. That can have effects on sample. Testing is all about being repeatable which requires following a process. They didn't do that. Just because he was found guilty in the court of public opinion, doesn't make him guilty.
Make no assumptions... You are assuming he was "dirty" in 2011. The test was tainted. It wasn't taken to the lab in a timely manner or stored properly. That can have effects on sample. Testing is all about being repeatable which requires following a process. They didn't do that. Just because he was found guilty in the court of public opinion, doesn't make him guilty.
I do not believe that Braun's sample was tampered with by the tester, do you?
And if just sitting around ruins the sample, then the result would be "no result", not "Braun positive." Urine sitting around in storage does not somehow or other deteriorate into urine plus PEDs.
Braun was caught, he escaped the consequences but eluding punishment is hardly some indication of non guilt.
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