CA Umeployment falls below 12% for the first time in 2 Years (Berkeley: real estate, loan)

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Don9

The employment situation is not getting better, its getting worse.

How is getting worse? There is net job growth and its getting stronger.

Originally Posted by Don9

There has been an increase in first time unemployment applications and many people are expiring and going on welfare and food stamps.

Weekly unemployment claims is very noisy, the 1-month average has a clear downward slope though....

Companies lay-off all the time, talking about that without talking about who is hiring is pointless. The basis of your post seems to be that all the employment figures are lying....

[user_id]

Originally Posted by yeahthatguy

Given what i am hearing around the valley (which is fact) .. you are going to see layoffs in the tens of thousands soon in the tech areas.

Sorry, but I don't put much weight on hearsay. But as I just noted in my previous post, you have to look at both hiring and lay-offs. Cisco has been doing poorly for a bit, yet Jupiter is doing well and is also in California.

Nothing in my post suggests that California's economy is going to see strong growth quarter after quarter, just that going forward California's economy should improve. All the major drags to California's economy are subsiding.

[yeahthatguy]

Originally Posted by user_id

Sorry, but I don't put much weight on hearsay. But as I just noted in my previous post, you have to look at both hiring and lay-offs. Cisco has been doing poorly for a bit, yet Jupiter is doing well and is also in California.

Nothing in my post suggests that California's economy is going to see strong growth quarter after quarter, just that going forward California's economy should improve. All the major drags to California's economy are subsiding.

Hearsay is fact .. HP indicates near term layoffs and so does Cisco .. Others are quarters away from declaring. Hiring/layoffs are important as you note.. but where are the hirings/layoffs occurring. Juniper is top ticking and their spoken bite continues to be more than what they deliver. I am concerned with the the things that are giving the appearance that California's economy going forward will improve.. As I am w/ the things that are gave the appearance in the U.S and world wide. Notably the influences on such 'appearances' are beginning to subside.. I'll come right out and mark Q4 2011 as the time in which this will become most evident.

Markets are getting ahead of it and noting the global economic troubles/weaknesses that lie ahead. We are by no means out of the woods or on any track for minimal/maximum improvement. My opinion is as good as yours in this way though.... The future will speak for itself. Thank you for sharing your opinion on the matter.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by yeahthatguy

As I am w/ the things that are gave the appearance in the U.S and world wide. Notably the influences on such 'appearances' are beginning to subside..

I'm talking about the future, not the past. Residential and commercial construction has been weak, but towards the end of this year it should start to strengthen. Especially residential with the building of many multi-unit housing. The state government has made numerous cuts which has contributed to the unemployment problem, but the state budget is starting to stabilize and this will stop being a drag on the California economy. I'm not really concerned with whether the next 1-2 quarters are worse than the previous 1-2 quarters, just the more long term picture.

Anyhow, the comments about HP, Cisco, etc are strange. These companies have most of their employees outside of California, hence even if their cuts materialize only a small fraction of the cuts will occur in California.

[yeahthatguy]

Originally Posted by user_id

I'm talking about the future, not the past. Residential and commercial construction has been weak, but towards the end of this year it should start to strengthen. Especially residential with the building of many multi-unit housing. The state government has made numerous cuts which has contributed to the unemployment problem, but the state budget is starting to stabilize and this will stop being a drag on the California economy. I'm not really concerned with whether the next 1-2 quarters are worse than the previous 1-2 quarters, just the more long term picture.

Anyhow, the comments about HP, Cisco, etc are strange. These companies have most of their employees outside of California, hence even if their cuts materialize only a small fraction of the cuts will occur in California.

Your opinion is noted. I respectfully disagree and agree to disagree. *cheers

[FresnoFacts]

Originally Posted by RabbitMage

Unemployment here in Fresno County is at 18.4% currently. Go us.

The newly released April number is 17%, a drop of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the March number you posted.

[Vascodagama]

Originally Posted by user_id

How is getting worse? There is net job growth and its getting stronger.


Weekly unemployment claims is very noisy, the 1-month average has a clear downward slope though....

Companies lay-off all the time, talking about that without talking about who is hiring is pointless. The basis of your post seems to be that all the employment figures are lying....

Weekly unemployment claims are real numbers. Employment claims are from a survey and has always been controversial and subject to political manipulation. The states and feds have changed the method of calculating the employment/unemployment to favor better numbers.

The state’s budget getting stabilized is a fantasy at best. They can't even pay the unemployment insurance so they must borrow from the feds' meaning more debt. California is on the path to insolvency and there is no help coming.

If you want to live with blinders and believe the propaganda then have at it ... it’s no skin off my back. I am taking action to protect my interests and future. I am not going to allow the same people who got us into this mess drive my bus.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by Don9

Weekly unemployment claims are real numbers. Employment claims are from a survey and has always been controversial and subject to political manipulation.

They are both "real numbers", but as I stated previously, weekly unemployment claims are very noise. If you look at say the 3-month moving average, the series is improving.

Originally Posted by Don9

The state’s budget getting stabilized is a fantasy at best. They can't even pay the unemployment insurance so they must borrow from the feds' meaning more debt.

This is the case for every state, the recession was too deep for state funds to not run out and this is precisely why the fed backs the program. The loans will be paid with future payroll taxes.

Believe what propaganda? I'm not really sure what you're talking about...

[Vascodagama]

Originally Posted by user_id

They are both "real numbers", but as I stated previously, weekly unemployment claims are very noise. If you look at say the 3-month moving average, the series is improving.


This is the case for every state, the recession was too deep for state funds to not run out and this is precisely why the fed backs the program. The loans will be paid with future payroll taxes.

Believe what propaganda? I'm not really sure what you're talking about...

Not every state has to borrow from the Fed's to pay unemployment insurance.

What propaganda? Surly you’re joking. How about the barrage of news articles from mainstream media that’s always saying the recession is over and the green shoots are starting, the housing market is recovering, and pointing to the stock market as proof that the economy is recovering. As they pump this propaganda out the people are seeing the opposite with the state and local governments are jacking up taxes, fee’s, higher food costs, higher gas costs, higher utilities costs, ... I could go on and on but I think you get the drift.

[RabbitMage]

Originally Posted by FresnoFacts

The newly released April number is 17%, a drop of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the March number you posted.

I just checked and you're right, but that also looks to have happened because of the start of harvest season, which opened up about 9000 jobs.