What to expect in San Luis Obispo in 12 years? (Santa Rosa: real estate, lease)

[the city]

Well, in 2020 the city's population estimate is at 50,400 population. The city's current population around 45,000 population. You can expect future housing to be cheap and affordable.

The airport runway will be expanded so bigger jets and bigger companies will be able to fly to farther locations. ex: flying with delta going to Utah

Two new shopping centers are being built next to the Costco in the Irish Hills Plaza. Kohl's will be the anchor of the Prefumo Creek Commons shopping center, and then the bigger shopping center after that has no confirmed anchor yet.

The Dalidio Ranch project has lost Lowe's as an anchor, my guess for the fourth project will be Macy's and Target open-air mall at 500,000sq. ft. Eventually after the city pays for the interchange and traffic congestion Dalidio will annex the project into the city without him spending a penny on the traffic.

Roger Hogan is going to build a Lexus and Mitsubishi car dealership, and a motorcycle dealership next to Dalidio's mall.

[cobmw]

Those all sound like good things to me. SLO has always needed more shopping. It's nice to see some progress in spite of the no-growthers who have a hissy fit every time a businessman tries to provide more conveniences.

[ImRandy]

Are people there anti-growth or anti-sprawl? Personally, I find sprawl to be much more offensive than growth.

[Capt. Dan]

I moved away fron SLO 10 years ago. Can you please remind me where Dalidios is. And Irish Hills.

[mono#9]

The Irish Hills are the beautiful hills south of SLO--just south of Los Osos Valley Rd. Dalidios is a ranch just north of the same rd--between the car dealerships and Madonna Plaza along 101. As I understand it, the voters okayed development of the ranch but a judge overturned it (where have we heard that before?) and now--I don't know. The OP seems to know a lot about this.

Maybe he knows if any new housing areas are being planned for all these new residents that are expected? And how about Paso Robles? What are in the plans (once the housing slump is over) up there? Anyone know? Links to informative sites would be much appreciated!

[eureka1]

Why will the housing be cheap and affordable then?

[Cali-girl]

For me, the question is rather: What do you expect SLO to be like in 12 years?

My thoughts are that SLO will have a mostly older population with the usual student population from Poly. Already, many young families have left and job losses at Vandenburg are contributing to this situation.

Now when I'm around town (Marsh, Monterrey, Foothill), there seems to me to be an age gap: I'm not seeing 30-40 y/o's, just 50+ and <30 students and 20's who can rent a studio. Recently, I went to have my annual vision exam and dental check-up and I was the only one there unlike <2005 when there were others waiting for their appts too. Kind of shocking, actually.

~Cali-girl (who is a 2006 alum of Poly)

[the city]

Okay, looks like it's time for me to start answering some questions.

First to the Dalidio question. The judge said Dalidio's Measure J was illegal, thus making him have to follow proper county laws now. Lowe's has ended their 5-year lease with Dalidio and I recently talked to Mr. Shoemaker who is Macy's central california division vice president of real estate and Shoemaker said they had interest in going back to the Dalidio project as an anchor in a mall-which leads me to believe what Dalidio is working on now is an open-air mall with Target and Macy's.

San Luis Obispo County’s website | 02/03/2008 | Dalidio should not give up despite surprising ruling (broken link)

Question #2: I live in Templeton, and have briefly followed population in Paso Robles. Paso has no population limit. There current general plan says in 2025 they will reach their build-out of 44,000 population. If the River Oaks 2 residential project is passed, the City Council would have to amend the General Plan to allow the population limit of Paso to be around 50,000 population. UCSB forecast says that Paso will be the largest city in Paso Robles by 2017 (50,000 population estimate)

San Luis Obispo County’s website | 02/07/2008 | Biz Buzz: River Oaks II moves further along after council endorses next step (broken link)

Question #3: Here is a list I have kept track of on all the housing projects going on in San Luis Obispo. The city population projection for 2020 is at 50,400. You can check with the city on that factor. And the build-out is at 58,000 population for 2025 (i dont see that happening). If the city retains their 1% annual growth per year starting in 2010 or whenever the recession in California ends, then SLO is supposed to be at 50,400 population.

Housing projects in San Luis Obispo, California:
*Dalidio Ranch project: 60 units to 300 population
*Chinatown project: 50 condo units to 100 population
*Garden Street Terrace project: 100 condo units to 200 population
Airport Road annexation: 50 houses to 100 pop.
Santa Rosa and Monterey Street project: 50 to 100 pop.
*johnson avenue annexation: 100 to 200 pop.
Sycamore Plaza (mix-use project): 100 to 200 pop.
Santa Rosa and Monterey Street redevelopment: 50 to 100
tank farm and orcutt road housing: 979 to 2,900 population
=San Luis Obispo at 50,000 population

The build-out for the largest residential project (orcutt road) is 10 years when the project is fully passed. Then there are some other projects that I have not listed. I would check with the city on those other projects and then The Tribune for the articles relating other housing projects.

Question #4: Why will housing be more affordable?
In 2005, the state government stepped in and told the city of SLO and the county we have to plan for more cheaper affordable housing and have around 360,000 population in the county by 2030. In April, a law is going to be passed that requires developers to build at least one affordable housing unit in each project. So far as I know, most of the current proposed housing projects not in downtown are affordable housing. The downtown housing is to get the elderly to move there, and have their old homes for families to move in. Same reason for the Poly Canyon dorms, get the college students to move in there and have families move into their old homes.

[the city]

Also, I have one more question to answer.

San Luis Obispo has a moderate growth city council. The urgency to grow rapid in SLO isn't big. But being SLO is the county seat, they have to grow. SLO growth opposers are both against sprawl and growth. But, u have a balance of pro-growth/sprawl college students and anti-growth/sprawl retirees.

Irish Hills Plaza includes Costco, Home Depot, Old Navy, Circuit City, It's a Grind Coffee, Bev'More, Linens'N'Things, Office Max, PetsSmart, and I think I'm forgetting one more.

Prefumo Creek Commons is going to have Whole Foods, Kohl's, a pharmacy, Jo-Ann Fabrics, and some others that I forget. That's all on Leider Hayes | Santa Barbara Commercial Real Estate - Property - FOR LEASE: Prefumo Creek Commons - Froom Ranch Way & Los Osos Valley Rd, San Luis Obispo (broken link)

Paso is currently expanding the current Wal-Mart into a Super Wal-Mart. Atascadero is getting a lame 146,000sq. ft. super wal-mart, but with good stores like Jennifer Convertibles.

And, both the canidates running for mayor against Mecham are pro-growth. I believe Orvits is gonna win. He's very pro-growth.

[mono#9]

Thank you so much, "the city", for all your great info and links. My husband and I are seriously considering SLO county in about a year. We just need to decide which area would be best for us--this will help a lot in making our decision. I appreciate it!