The odds of a home price decline hitting your local housing market, as told by one interactive chart

[Racer46]

Originally Posted by dontbelievehim

In a grey area here. Am expecting price increases throughout the year. Next year is when might start seeing drops

My area prices are still going up and no indication of a drop yet. Definitely in a low zone. Can't believe the increase is so high here, but then even a drop would have minimal impact on equity compared to when bought. Won't drop to where someone with minimal funds can buy.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by Racer46

My area prices are still going up and no indication of a drop yet. Definitely in a low zone. Can't believe the increase is so high here, but then even a drop would have minimal impact on equity compared to when bought. Won't drop to where someone with minimal funds can buy.

And if you are in an area that is bursting at the seams, some might say that's a good thing.

[Racer46]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

And if you are in an area that is bursting at the seams, some might say that's a good thing.

Definitely for those who want to sell, but not for those who want to buy.

For those who have no desire to move, it means very little as higher costs at sale time, do not impact their existing costs if they do not want to move.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by Racer46

Definitely for those who want to sell, but not for those who want to buy.

For those who have no desire to move, it means very little as higher costs at sale time, do not impact their existing costs if they do not want to move.

Buying right now would really hurt the bank account. Any house in my area has a sold sign in days. Crazier than 97.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by Racer46

Definitely for those who want to sell, but not for those who want to buy.

For those who have no desire to move, it means very little as higher costs at sale time, do not impact their existing costs if they do not want to move.

I this you misunderstood my point. I was referring to the inability for people to come in as high prices would create a barrier to entry. The goal being to reduce the population of an area.

[Nasudesu]

Very interesting maps and it makes sense to me as I have seen similar price movements the last 45 years I have been in bay area. We are one of few areas shown as undervalued and although our prices are going up, other areas with lower income to housing has gone up too fast. Thanks for sharing.

[davdaven]

Originally Posted by joosoon

So much of flyover country doesn't even warrant ranking though? Kinda odd.

Looks like MSAs to me. Large swaths of the west are sparsely populated.

[87112]

Seattle no chance in a million years going down in price. It will rival Hong Kong per sq foot pretty soon. My city is bonkers.

[509]

Originally Posted by HereOnMars

Interesting website. Hovering the mouse over each spot shows the area. Kind of surprised to see the area in and around Prescott, AZ with an elevated chance of prices dropping. I'm curious why the areas in Oregon and Washington are red. Crime? Drugs? Poor leadership? Can't be the weather since the area isn't much different than its neighboring county.

Yes, it is the weather.

Surprised that from Mars you cannot see the weather difference between eastern Oregon and Washington and western Oregon and Washington. West of the Cascades is Pacific Maritine climate, east of the Cascades it is Great Basin weather, high desert.

My daughter was already talking and she had NEVER seen it rain at home. First time, we were flying to Hawaii from SeaTac and she asked what was falling from the sky!

I am surprised that more western Washington counties are not shown in red. Lots of migration OUT, but almost offset from in migration from California.

If your fleeing San Francisco or LA, Seattle and Portland look better. If you live in Seattle and Portland your going to flee to other counties.

The red county in eastern Oregon is Deschutes.....home to Bend, Oregon. Once a very nice town, now a California cesspool. Locals are fleeing elsewhere, and like Seattle it will be interesting if California refugees make up the difference.

Don't think much of the Core Logic study.

This price surge has been driven by migration from urban areas into rural areas. Some of the rural areas are showing up as "overvalued" based on residents income. That doesn't matter, local residents are priced out of the market. They are not capable of buying homes in those areas.

Prices will drop if the flow of urban refugees drops to these communities. BUT in my county, the refugee flow has been going on for over 30 years now. It ebbs and flows, but home prices have not dropped over the 30 years.

Currently OVER 40% of the homes are second homes owned by out-of-county residents. They determine the market.