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The Chicago Metro area covers some 9,581 square miles which is equal to 15,419 square KMs.
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area: 7,125 km2 (2,751 sq mi)
I'm sure if the boundaries of Toronto's CMA were expanded to be comparable in size to those of Chicago's metro area as defined by the US Census Bureau, we would find as many people live in Toronto than in Chicago if not more.
That's not true. More people live in the Chicago metro area than the Toronto metro area, no matter how you define "metro area". Let's compare apples-to-apples and look at urban areas: the 2008 estimate for Chicago was 9,030,000 (around 6,000 sq kms) vs. Toronto's 5,790,000 (around 2,300 sq kms). If you think we're dropping too many people from the Toronto area we can loosen it up a bit below. But it's wrong to just say "Chicago's population numbers are so big because the metro area is defined in an artifically large way".
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Long story short: reported (US) MSA population numbers are generally* comparable to (Canada) CMA population numbers, but land area comparisons do not work.
Long story: I'll be a geek here, but that's OK, it's city-data right? 9,581 square miles is 24,815 square kilometers not 15,419 by the way.
In the US, MSA definitions are county-based. In Canada, they are municipality-based. So in the US, you can have a largely empty county with a small town in the corner, with commuter patterns linking it to a large city in another county. The whole county will then be thrown into the MSA (see Newton county, IN or Jasper and Grundy counties, IL, for the Chicago MSA). In Canada, only the small town in the corner would be included. That adds a lot of land area but almost no population.
US counties also include large bodies of water (i.e. Lake Michigan) -- about 1/3 of the Chicago MSA land area is Lake Michigan (ex: Cook County is 4,235 square kilometers, but 1,785 of that is water). So reported MSA land area is inflated for some MSAs including Chicago.
* I wrote "generally" because the Toronto CMA is an exception. Not sure where you got the 7,125 km2 figure but today's Statcan report has the Toronto CMA at 5,905 km2. Where the Toronto CMA ends and where the Hamilton, Oshawa and Barrie CMAs begin is largely arbitrary. We don't have CSAs (combination of MSAs) in Canada but let's suppose we did, and let's also suppose we could include the whole Golden Horseshoe in there (source Statcan, see link above)--
The Chicago Metro area covers some 9,581 square miles which is equal to 15,419 square KMs.
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area: 7,125 km2 (2,751 sq mi)
I'm sure if the boundaries of Toronto's CMA were expanded to be comparable in size to those of Chicago's metro area as defined by the US Census Bureau, we would find as many people live in Toronto than in Chicago if not more.
That's more because Chicago is really sprawled out than because the US Census Bureau defines CMAs differently. The cities in Chicago's CMA are all highly dependent and interconnected with Chicago, while cities like Kitchener, St Catharines, Brantford and Peterborough and much more independent.
The US Census Bureau doesn't define metropolitan areas as the 9581 square miles surrounding a city, smaller cities have CMAs that cover less land. Toledo and Flint are about the same distance from Detroit as Kenosha is from Chicago, but they're not considered part of Detroit's CMA. For Toronto's equivalent to Chicago's CSA though, you could definitely include Oshawa and Hamilton, and probably St Catharines-Niagara, Barrie, Guelph and maybe KW... Brantford and Peterborough would be pushing it imo but they're small so I guess it doesn't matter too much.
The Greater Golden Horseshoe, which is comparable in area to Chicago's CSA had just under 8.7 million people as of the 2011 census. That's only about a million less than the Chicago area.
The city of Toronto came in at 2,615,060, which is approximately 80,000 shy of Chicago's 2010 census population, but Chicago is declining and Toronto is growing, so it's quite possible that as of this year Toronto has passed Chicago in city proper population.
For city proper -- I agree.
But for the metro area, again, apples to apples. Milwaukee, Rockford and South Bend are as close to downtown Chicago as Peterborough and Niagara Falls (part of the "Greater Golden Horseshoe", a region defined for infrastructure development planning not a single population center) are to downtown TO. That area would have over 11 million people.
I agree with Atticman, 8.7 million sounds about right.
or approx 1 million less than Chicago's total.
BarneyG's figures are accurate but in Ontario
population is sometimes grouped together in "regional municipalities", not just individual cities.
For an approximation I'll use "rounded" figures...
Toronto CMA 5,600,000
Regional Municipality of Waterloo 544,000
Regional Municipality of Niagara 428,000
Clarrington (Bowmanville/Newcastle/Courtice) 78,000
Simcoe County (Barrie area) 266,000
Guelph 125,000
Brantford 135,000
Hamilton 721,000
Oshawa 356,000
Orangeville 29,000
Total 8,282,000
But if you include Haldimand County, all of Wellington County
Peterborough, all of Dufferin County, and Northumberland County,
total would be close to 8.7 million.
Therefore Toronto is behind Chicago by about 1 million,
my prediction is Toronto will surpass Chicago by around year 2020
BarneyG's figures are accurate but in Ontario
population is sometimes grouped together in "regional municipalities", not just individual cities.
The numbers I gave were CMAs and census divisions. The only reason why there's a discrepancy with your numbers is that regional municipalities are sometimes quite a bit larger, which exactly feeds into my point that you should then compare it to something larger than the Chicago CSA (especially if you're going to include Peterborough and all of Simcoe County).
Toronto is growing at a much faster rate than Chicago so it's catching up. But I stand by my assessment, if you define the Toronto area in a way that it has 8.7 million people, then the Chicago area includes Milwaukee and is close to 12 million people.
I agree with Atticman, 8.7 million sounds about right.
or approx 1 million less than Chicago's total.
BarneyG's figures are accurate but in Ontario
population is sometimes grouped together in "regional municipalities", not just individual cities.
For an approximation I'll use "rounded" figures...
Toronto CMA 5,600,000
Regional Municipality of Waterloo 544,000
Regional Municipality of Niagara 428,000
Clarrington (Bowmanville/Newcastle/Courtice) 78,000
Simcoe County (Barrie area) 266,000
Guelph 125,000
Brantford 135,000
Hamilton 721,000
Oshawa 356,000
Orangeville 29,000
Total 8,282,000
But if you include Haldimand County, all of Wellington County
Peterborough, all of Dufferin County, and Northumberland County,
total would be close to 8.7 million.
Therefore Toronto is behind Chicago by about 1 million,
my prediction is Toronto will surpass Chicago by around year 2020
Most of this cities/areas you are lumping in are over an hour away and I don't know anyone that considers them part of Toronto region in any way.
The census total for Ontario is 12,851,821 and you are stating that two thirds of that is the greater Toronto region??
I think it's fair to lump Orangeville, parts of Simcoe County (Barrie, Alliston, Innisfill, Bradford), Oshawa/Clarington and Hamilton with the Toronto area, even if they are not part of CMA, they are still quite interconnected.
Even Guelph and Waterloo Region are fairly connected to Toronto suburbs like Mississauga and Milton in terms of commuting, although not so much downtown Toronto. They do have GO train service to Union Station now though. St Catharines-Niagara and Brantford are less connected to Toronto though, at least in terms of commuting.
Most of this cities/areas you are lumping in are over an hour away and I don't know anyone that considers them part of Toronto region in any way.
The census total for Ontario is 12,851,821 and you are stating that two thirds of that is the greater Toronto region??
Yup, just in case you didn't know.....
The population of the state of Illinois is almost the SAME as Ontario
at just under 13 million
So I could say the same thing, "and you are stating that two thirds
of that is in the greater Chicago region??
(Also known as "Chicagoland")
Per 2011 Census Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has popluation just over 6 million
(6,054,000)
It includes...
Peel Region (Mississauga/Brampton/Caledon)
Halton Region (Oakville/Burlington/Milton/Halton Hills)
York Region (Vaughan/Markham/Richmond Hill/Aurora/New Market/King)
Durham Region (Pickering/Ajax/Whitby/Oshawa/Uxbridge/Clarrington)
All that in just over 2,500 sq miles
To make it comparable to Chicago's CSA (or MSA, I'm not picky )
I would add the following ....
Hamilton 721,000
Niagara Region 428,000
Waterloo Region 544,000
Guelph 125,000
Brantford 135,000
Simcoe County (Barrie area) 266,000
Orangeville 29,000
Just over 8 million total
Even when you add all that to the GTA, it is still SMALLER in area to Chicago's MSA (9,500 sq miles) or CSA 10,800 sq miles
Putting that size in perspective ....
The entire state of Massachusetts is 10,555 sq miles
The entire state of Connecticut is 5,543 sq miles
Chicago's MSA and/or CSA are HUGE !!
Includes counties in 3 states! Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin
barneyg stated that US MSA/CSA ...include rural areas...
I say so..... so do the Ontario regional municipalites I added to the GTA
Then someone said well let's add Milwaukee ...
OK ...let's add my friends in Buffalo,NY (Erie and Niagara counties
would add another 2 million to the total)
By the way alot of people DO commute great distances from "outside" the GTA
Usually it's either lifestyle choice or to find affordable housing
About 20 years ago I worked in downtown Toronto (Front St)
I commuted in from Mississauga (by GO Train),
talking with co-workers I was surprised that I lived "downtown" compared to many ....commuting in from Barrie...Mount Albert....Orangeville...
Guelph ....and even St Catharines!
That was over 20 years ago ....today I bet it's even more so
Even when you add all that to the GTA, it is still SMALLER in area to Chicago's MSA (9,500 sq miles) or CSA 10,800 sq miles
Chicago's MSA and/or CSA are HUGE !!
Includes counties in 3 states! Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin
barneyg stated that US MSA/CSA ...include rural areas...
I say so..... so do the Ontario regional municipalites I added to the GTA
Then someone said well let's add Milwaukee ...
OK ...let's add my friends in Buffalo,NY (Erie and Niagara counties
would add another 2 million to the total)
I think this is getting ridiculous.
1) you clearly missed the part of my post that mentioned that the reported area for Chicago's MSA (and CSA) includes Lake Michigan. you continue to use it like it's some sort of outrageously large number. it's really 30% smaller than 9,500/10,800 sq miles.
2) the Chicago CSA includes counties in 3 states because it is a 3-state metropolitan area, it's not some conspiracy theory by the US Census bureau to make it look larger than Toronto. The Indiana state line is about 25 km from downtown Chicago (Wisconsin = 80 km). For Indiana that's less than downtown TO to Richmond Hill. For Wisconsin that's like downtown TO to Stoney Creek. Since you've included all of Simcoe County, the whole Niagara Region, and K-W in there, how is that outrageous?
3) Milwaukee is closer to Chicago than Buffalo is to TO, but fair enough. The Buffalo-NF MSA is 1.1 million people not 2 million people though! Milwaukee's larger than Buffalo anyway..
Bottom line -- no matter how you stretch the boundaries, any apples-to-apples comparison between Chicago and Toronto will have more people in Chicago.
The cities people are adding to toronto's total are just that there own cities. If you're just going by distance you might as well add Philadelphia or the whole north-east to new york citiy's metro.
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9,581 square miles is 24,815 square kilometers not 15,419 by the way.
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