Crime Spillover to "Nice" Neighborhoods (Chicago, Albany: violent crime, public school)

[NealIRC]

Originally Posted by beaniemac

I live just just east of the dan ryan in that area.

I used to live in west englewood.

Say, you could hit it up with Runuova here. He grew up in West Englewood but now lives in West Pullman.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Antonio Montana

You're right. We don't know the full extent of the coverup, so that's why I'm going to go ahead and trust the people on the ground like the OP and other sources who are actually in the situation, and not the spin of The Chicago machine and their crime statistics, because we know there has been pressure to underreport crime. As I said, I hope you're right that crime is down. In the meantime, I think it's wise for all law-abiding citizens in Chicago, especially in Lakeview, to get a CCW license and learn how to defend themselves, because it's obvious that the police can't be relied upon.

I'll make a few points here.

1) The OP lives near a big nightlife area in Wrigleyville. There are a lot of people coming from all over the place to be there - some to have fun, and others to take advantage of others. That's not rare in areas like Wrigleyville, River North, Wicker Park, etc. Go out in Wicker Park for example, you'll see gang members hanging out on the streets (not usually bothering anybody though, don't worry - but it's definitely happened) but I could guarantee most do not live in the neighborhood.

You could possibly have a spillover from some of that into the neighborhood immediately surrounding it, especially if it's known that nearby the bars, there are some really nice new homes. It's not like crime in Wrigleyville and the surrounding area magically didn't exist until a few years ago though. There is crime everywhere - some more than others - and everywhere has the ability to have crime.


2) I hope you understand what you are doing here. You are taking what the poster is saying, which is obviously factual, and applying it to a much broader area. An area much, much larger than what they are even reporting on. The OP is reporting on incidents to themselves and the immediate surrounding area - they make it very clear that it is a 2 block radius of their home, which as a subset of the overall Lakeview community area is actually pretty small. You, however, are taking what they are saying about applying it to the entirety of Lakeview, which is over 3 square miles, and even the entire city of Chicago which is over 227 square miles.

Can you show me of anecdotal information in all other parts of Lakeview that would warrant you to come to such a conclusion? Just because there is crime happening to the OP on his block at some rate does not mean that 8 blocks away it is happening at the same rate, especially because he's not reporting on that. How can you come up with such a conclusion? Show me even anecdotes of people reporting from at least 5 different parts of Lakeview about the crime and how it's worse than even a decade ago.

FAREastCoast: I know you've lived in the neighborhood for just a year or two, but what about your neighbors? Do you talk to them about this stuff? How long have they lived in the neighborhood for - as in, will they personally know if the neighborhood even in 2006 was safer or more dangerous versus today? I'm not disagreeing with your post either, so I hope you don't fully get that idea. I'm just trying to understand your mindset. I think it's completely possible that right around you there has been an uptick (which is a more granular level than your beat, but it could be different in other areas which you aren't reporting on).

3) The OP reports that everyone was charged in all these incidents, meaning that their crime was reported to the police and in the crime databases (and I doubt that a garage robbery/burglary would warrant a coverup and non-report in the database, but then again - none of us has any idea. The OP could easily look to see if their crimes actually show up in the database and tell us).



As far as the OP goes too, they are in Beat 1923 in District 19. This is what has been reported for crime in that beat by category and year:

Burglary
2015: 37
2014: 49
2013: 61
2012: 91
2011: 165
2010: 130
2009: 142
2008: 157
2007: 178
2006: 194
2005: 187
2004: 169
2003: 219
2002: 241

Robbery
2015: 30
2014: 30
2013: 37
2012: 51
2011: 35
2010: 41
2009: 38
2008: 36
2007: 39
2006: 46
2005: 39
2004: 52
2003: 55
2002: 59

Homicide
2015: 0
2014: 0
2013: 0
2012: 0
2011: 2
2010: 0
2009: 0
2008: 0
2007: 0
2006: 0
2005: 2
2004: 1
2003: 1
2002: 1
2001: 1


Assault
2015: 45
2014: 24
2013: 42
2012: 54
2011: 34
2010: 33
2009: 37
2008: 52
2007: 43
2006: 54
2005: 56
2004: 49
2003: 59
2002: 60


Theft
2015: 278
2014: 240
2013: 334
2012: 390
2011: 503
2010: 616
2009: 594
2008: 590
2007: 445
2006: 440
2005: 453
2004: 416
2003: 504
2002: 536


Battery
2015: 129
2014: 109
2013: 141
2012: 176
2011: 156
2010: 159
2009: 184
2008: 197
2007: 220
2006: 193
2005: 188
2004: 200
2003: 196
2002: 180

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Stop and frisk turns into stopping all brown people who appear to be "threats" and making them feel uncomfortable in a neighborhood they may very well live in. How about we actually address the underlying causes of these issues such as failing schools, lack of access to quality jobs, and a deep culture of gang violence? Crime isn't the go-to for most people. It's typically people who have few, if any, other options who result to crime.

You have to be a real screwy individual to somehow draw causation that some guy's refusal to get a minimum wage job justifies him breaking into someone else's house and stealing their TV.

Bad news for people who think like you: unemployment is close to 5%, or what most economists consider full employment, meaning, broadly speaking, this is about as good as gets, and if you can't get your lazy a$$ on the bus to work 40 hrs a week at Chic-Fil-A now, no one can save you.

[marothisu]

Chicago already has stop and frisk. It's just less reported on the news and less controversy than cities like NYC:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/us...monitored.html

[Antonio Montana]

Marothisu, I have no real argument with you, believe it or not. It comes down to this. For the sake of decent, law abiding citizens in the city of Chicago, I hope you're right. But due to numerous reports over the years of people on the ground and other reasons, I'm skeptical of Chicago crime stats that people use to say crime is down. In this case, I'm going to put a little more faith in the anecdotals over the official data. I know this is not a good idea in most cases, but in the case of how crook county and Chicago operates, I don't think I'm totally unjustified in thinking this way.

All this being said, if I were to give any piece of advice to law abiding citizens in Lakeview and other areas of Chicago other than downtown, it wold be this: Don't think the police are going to save you. Learn how to defend yourself, get a FOID card, a ccw license, and a good CCW handgun. In fairness to Chicago, this is good advice anywhere, and not just Chicago.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Antonio Montana

Marothisu, I have no real argument with you, believe it or not. It comes down to this. For the sake of decent, law abiding citizens in the city of Chicago, I hope you're right. But due to numerous reports over the years of people on the ground and other reasons, I'm skeptical of Chicago crime stats that people use to say crime is down. In this case, I'm going to put a little more faith in the anecdotals over the official data. I know this is not a good idea in most cases, but in the case of how crook county and Chicago operates, I don't think I'm totally unjustified in thinking this way.

This is the problem. Again, you're doing the same thing. Let's say you found 100 anecdotes of people in their 2 block radius. Out of 227 square miles, how do you come up with a conclusion that every single area is up or "not down" versus the actual statistics? Even 100 anecdotes of 2 block radii each is very small compared to the entire city.

In the end, anecdotes aren't hard evidence for a larger area, nor will they ever be. They help us understand what's going on at a micro level (i.e. the two block radius of the OP's home), not a huge geography unless the anecdotes are so numerous and so varied in geography spread in every single area of the city, in which they are not. You can always find these things - there was a shooting in the mayor's neighborhood. That sucks, but ask anybody who lives in that neighborhood, and nobody is going to tell you there's shootings almost ever right in the immediate area, but people will appeal to emotion by sending you these articles to make you believe it's the truth - when it's not.

Most of the anecdotes I hear are from areas that were already so so or bad. There are some from Lakeview in the past few years, and a few here and there like the muggers in Lincoln Park for a few weeks in 2009. However, it's not enough for anybody to rely on them, including you, for the entire city or even large subsets of the city geographically. Be smarter than this. I know you are trying to do it here, but relying on even 100 or 300 anecdotes that cover a very small subset of the city is anti-logical.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

You have to be a real screwy individual to somehow draw causation that some guy's refusal to get a minimum wage job justifies him breaking into someone else's house and stealing their TV.

Bad news for people who think like you: unemployment is close to 5%, or what most economists consider full employment, meaning, broadly speaking, this is about as good as gets, and if you can't get your lazy a$$ on the bus to work 40 hrs a week at Chic-Fil-A now, no one can save you.

I'd hardly call a minimum wage job at Chic-Fil-A a quality job. If you feel otherwise, please, seek employment there. The point is many people on the south and west sides of town that are stuck in a cycle of poverty. There are few, if any, quality jobs that would allow them to sustain a middle class lifestyle. As a result, the community doesn't have the resources to provide a quality education to the youths. Those youths become adults without the educational background to seek employment in a field/industry that allows them to escape their impoverished lifestyle. These adults have babies and the cycle repeats.

These people aren't inherently lazy, especially if they are the ones breaking into houses. It takes a lot of planning and coordination to successfully burglarize a house. They've just been hindered at every possible turn on the pathway to success and as a result revert to crime.

[Chicago60614]

I've been in lakeview for 12 years now, living around boystown, wrigleyville and burna park and things have been very steady. With all the blogs and sites and social media there's definitely more stories and reports and stats you can access so it seems like crime is crazy, but back 10 years ago it was much harder to see the stats at your fingertips.

Things have been pretty steady, it's still a very safe area for its 100,000 residents.

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

I'd hardly call a minimum wage job at Chic-Fil-A a quality job. If you feel otherwise, please, seek employment there. The point is many people on the south and west sides of town that are stuck in a cycle of poverty. There are few, if any, quality jobs that would allow them to sustain a middle class lifestyle. As a result, the community doesn't have the resources to provide a quality education to the youths. Those youths become adults without the educational background to seek employment in a field/industry that allows them to escape their impoverished lifestyle. These adults have babies and the cycle repeats.

These people aren't inherently lazy, especially if they are the ones breaking into houses. It takes a lot of planning and coordination to successfully burglarize a house. They've just been hindered at every possible turn on the pathway to success and as a result revert to crime.

Blah blah blah. Dropout rates in these communities hover around 75%. Guess what? If you drop out of high school you're screwed. Everyone knows that.

Come looking for sympathy when you at least graduate high school.

What in the holy he$$ prevents people from enrolling in a trade school?! How much is HVAC school? How hard is it to learn to change oil?

Not very hard. Want something more, go for it.

Your canned, lame, condescending world view is, thank goodness, quickly being pushed to the dustbin of history, where it belongs.

[Ace Rothstein]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

How much is HVAC school?

Return on investment for HVAC school is pretty good as well. It costs an arm and a leg whenever I have one of those guys come out to my house.