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Just a few years ago, the SanDiego MSA became the 17th US metro to surpass the 3 million mark-- joining the Twin Cities and Seattle in the race toward 4 million. True, 3 million is nothing more than a number. But to some, it's an indicator that a metro area has "arrived."
So to that end, let's do some speculating, just for fun: Which will be the next metro areas to join the "3 million club"? Obvious contenders include Tampa Bay (currently at 2,860,379), St. Louis (2,812,896), and Baltimore (2,710,489). It's important to note that each has a different rate of population growth, which will certainly affect the outcome.
Then let's not forget those slightly smaller MSAs with some rather robust rates of population growth: Denver, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Orlando. It's entirely possible that any of these metros could eventually catch up with, or surpass, those ranked above them.
Which do you foresee becoming the next 3 million metros? And which ones will reach that mark by the end of this decade?
Please don't rule out the much hyped and anticipated merger of Cincinnati and Dayton (commonly referred to as "Cin-Day") which would result in an MSA well over 3-million. (At present, several of the exburbs of each city are already touching each other. Any recent night-sky satellite photo will reveal the close relationship of these two cities.)
Growth in Tampa-St. Pete is going to be slowed by their housing crisis. If young people don't move there, the dying off or moving of the older segment of their population may stagnant growth.
Neither St. Louis or Baltimore is growing fast enough to hit three million anytime soon. My longshot bet is Denver.
Denver has become the Ellen Degeneres of cities. Who doesn't like Denver? Denver's a "cool city" whose growth will be enhanced by the increased numbers of the baby boom echo generation.
Indianapolis/Columbus Ohio and St Louis will be 3 Million shortly.
Indianapolis added over 300,000 to our metro area and 50k to the city in the past 10 years. With our better business climate and higher job growth that rate is going to pick up.
Indianapolis metro is at 2M right now and counting.
Denver MSA is about 2,543,000, but the CSA is already over 3 million at 3,090,000 and includes Boulder County and Weld County (Boulder and Greeley). The thing is that both counties were actually included in the MSA numbers as of the 2000 census. I understand reclassifying Weld County, but Boulder is very much a part of the Denver area now. Adding just Boulder County back to the MSA numbers (which I wouldn't be surprised if the Census Bureau did again) would put Denver at about 2,837,000.
Either way, based on recent growth trends, the Denver MSA is certainly within striking distance of 3 million by 2020.
San Antonio has about 2.3 million now and is one of the faster growing metros between 2-3 million so It will eventually surpass Denver, baltimore and St louis. To bad its only minutes from metro Austin-San Marcos otherwise it would have been larger since it cant expand to the north where most of S.A.'s growth has historically taken place. SA is 24th now and I wouldnt doubt if it makes it to the top 15-20 by 2020.
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