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Bill/anyone else, what are your thoughts on the Holden Beach/Ocean Isle beach area? Been watching this area for a while, and it seems that houses for sale are just sitting and not selling. Tons of houses for sale on Holden Beach. Thoughts?
Before you buy at those beaches I recommend you visit some in the middle and the northern part of the state.
Even as far as Ocean Isle, the outflow of the Cape Fear impacts the water clarity. The water there, and the water at the Crystal Coast, IMHO is not even comparable. Not talking pollution or really dirty, just crystal clear vs..well, not crystal clear.
I have lived at/near both and I have no dog in the fight.
Bill H. and I disagree about practically everything, but he knows his stuff about beach real estate. Reed and heed his advice!
Before you buy at those beaches I recommend you visit some in the middle and the northern part of the state.
Even as far as Ocean Isle, the outflow of the Cape Fear impacts the water clarity. The water there, and the water at the Crystal Coast, IMHO is not even comparable. Not talking pollution or really dirty, just crystal clear vs..well, not crystal clear.
I have lived at/near both and I have no dog in the fight.
Bill H. and I disagree about practically everything, but he knows his stuff about beach real estate. Reed and heed his advice!
"Been watching this area for a while, and it seems that houses for sale are just sitting and not selling. Tons of houses for sale on Holden Beach".
That pretty much describes all of the actual beach of NC. The beach is expensive and heavily valued. It made economic sense 8-10 years ago when prices sky rocketed and access to money was just a signature away. So the beach was built up but the funds went away. Now we have to deal with a glut of inventory. Consequently foreclosures and distress sales can be 15-25% of all sales, Price depresses so much in certain cases that cash sales (such is what is happening in Carteret County right now) can be as high as 35% of all sales.
The coastal counties with the most stable real estate markets are the ones with the least beach.
But please understand-I am talking specifically beach. Brunswick, New Hanover, Onslow, Carteret all have magnificent markets and opportunities off the direct beach area.
The beach prices have come down but they are target specific opportunities to be had for a buyer who can move forward quickly.
I didn't realize that there was still such a pool of distressed houses along the beach. Thank you for the input! What are you seeing in regards to what beach houses (oceanfront/2nd row homes ) are actually selling for versus their "original" list price? Some of the houses at Holden and Ocean Isle beach are so overpriced compared to the recent sales that I don't even want to make an offer. Many thanks.
Rarely will you see a real estate for sale sign that says "Foreclosure" although a significant number are. There is also something called the "shadow inventory" which are homes in the foreclosure process that are not actively being marketed yet. The foreclosure process takes on average around 2 years or more. So what is just now being foreclosed on will not hit the market until 2016.
I just did a really quick check on sold prices. In 2008 the average sold price of an Atlantic Beach home was $891K and an Emerald Isle home was $604K. Right now the average sold price for an Atlantic Beach home is $374K and Emerald Isle is $449K. Wow!
Imagine trying to sell a home now that was bought back in 2008! Now you see why the beach has such a glut of inventory.
And why buy an older home when you can buy new construction so much cheaper!
The difference between list vs. sale price can be huge. It can also be deceptive. The percent difference between list and sale price are given from the last time a home price was adjusted before a sale. For example-I put my house on the market for $400K. 6 months later I drop it to $350K and then 6 months later drop it to $300K and sell it. The list to sell comparison would be done at the $300K price and not at the $400K.
Real estate is an insiders game. This is why I encourage buyers to contract an experienced and qualified buyers broker. They are not easy to find. Interview several of them before you contract one. Unfortunately in NC it is buyer beware. Unfortunately for the buyer the real estate industry is geared towards the seller.
Bill I note that, for the most part, you are referencing the secondary home market...which has less and less influence in New Hanover County.
That secondary home market was highly inflated during the housing boom....you are correct that the Crystal Coast, the Brunswick County beaches and especially the Outer Banks has seen a precipitous drop from 2008.
What's interesting is that this is the time to buy...the rental market is still fairly strong and the coast is slowly becoming more of a primary market...as we can see in the Wilmington area.
Of course you have to buy a home in compliance with the floodplain requirements or, in the long run, the flood insurance will be a huge expense.
Bill I note that, for the most part, you are referencing the secondary home market All market info (sold prices, etc) have been all homes within that given market.
A couple of thoughts about coastal counties. They have two worlds and sometimes these two worlds never meet. One world is the beach world. The other is like almost any other small town USA.
Another thought is yes, there is a secondary home market but more prominent is the retirement market. These folks don't visit, they reside. The landscape is changing because of the retirees. For example in Morehead City we have 2 Walgreens, CVS, Wal-Mart and K-Mart pharmacies, Rite Aid Pharmacy, $50 Million expansion of the hospital and an expansion of all sorts of medical facilities and local pharmacies.
Bill...sounds like you know the Crystal Coast market...wouldn't you kind of agree that the Crystal Coast, Outer Banks and Wilmington area are all different markets (I'm figuring these are the big three beach markets). Outer Banks is mostly 2nd homes. You are probably seeing more retiree's at the Crystal Coast and Wilmington has both but with primary homes (that aren't retiree's) mixed in.
So to answer the original question...I think you have to look at the population supporting the housing. The Outer Banks has taken a drastic hit, much greater than the Wilmington area. Maybe the Crystal Coast is somewhere in between.
wouldn't you kind of agree that the Crystal Coast, Outer Banks and Wilmington area are all different markets.
As I said at the beginning of this thread: "There are 20 coastal counties that fall within CAMA rules and regulations. There are 100's and 100's of micro/macro markets within these counties that differ from each other in price, supply of inventory and insurance. Any statement that is 100% correct in one of these markets could be 180 degrees off in another, even if it is a neighboring market."
In a very real and substantial way, the three markets you mentioned, Wilmington, Crystal Coast and OBX have nothing in common.
The city of Wilmington has a population of over 100,000 people. The largest city in the Crystal Coast is Morehead City at somewhere around 8,000 people. Jacksonville which is between the two markets is the youngest city in the US with the average age of just under 23 years old. It also has approx. 25,000 military personnel.
Keep in mind that tourism in NC is either the number or two industry in NC. It generates almost $20Billion a year. The coast of NC is the number one tourist destination AND the number one relocation destination.
OBX is no longer just a sandbar in the ocean visited by the beach crowd in the summer and the fishing crowd spring/fall. OBX has a year round population and economy now. They also have the worst real estate market in NC at the moment in terms of price and inventory.
Oops, gotta go. More later
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