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Old 10-24-2012, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike 75 View Post
So if it curves out to the east and then comes back to the west, that is more typical of a nor'easter, is it not?
That push out East would be a "typical"...."normal" thing to do, but beause the trough catches it and because of the Blocking, it cannot go further East so it starts pushing west towards land. This would be a Hybrid NorEaster/Hurricane.

Think about something else... A storm doesnt just stop and turn around... That to me mean it stalls then goes the other way which means an incredible amount of rain.

This is so rarely witnessed that seeing how this could happen is unbelievable. The timing of everything unreal.

I'm not making that confirmed call yet but as you can tell...I'm more confident this will happen.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Oh... and Sandy is now officially a hurricane. Pretty quick.

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Old 10-24-2012, 01:09 PM
 
26,143 posts, read 19,846,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Unfortunetly this may happen..
Well lets hope it doesnt!!!!!

@ any rate i hope everyone stays safe!!
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Pictures from Jamaica right now. Jamaica - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network)

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Old 10-24-2012, 01:16 PM
 
240 posts, read 537,431 times
Reputation: 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This is the generator I was looking at. I keep saying whats a couple days without power and I can always drive there to pick it up. Free Shipping here. Good for Fridge, TV, Computer, Furnace, Lights

GP 5500-Watt Portable Generator-5939 at The Home Depot
I bought that exact generator last year (on November 1). It worked great for me for 10 days. I hooked up a chest freezer, my fridge, my pellet stove, and my TV (along with DirecTV). I even ran a Kurig coffee pot and a 700 watt microwave. I didn't hook it into my breaker box, but instead ran extension cords to the unit. It was a bit louder than some of the really expensive units that some of my neighbors used, but it didn't bother me.

I used about 5 gallons of gas a day.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Unprecidented. I dont ever remember this request to send balloons up every 6 hours IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY....

At least we cant say we didnt try to figure it out. Technology is great and therefore we need to continue funding weather related technology and science.

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW
.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:45 PM
 
56 posts, read 172,863 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Unprecidented. I dont ever remember this request to send balloons up every 6 hours IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY....

At least we cant say we didnt try to figure it out. Technology is great and therefore we need to continue funding weather related technology and science.

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW
.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

Ok so is it time to go buy a generator?
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:49 PM
 
468 posts, read 524,090 times
Reputation: 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This is the generator I was looking at. I keep saying whats a couple days without power and I can always drive there to pick it up. Free Shipping here. Good for Fridge, TV, Computer, Furnace, Lights

GP 5500-Watt Portable Generator-5939 at The Home Depot
By the time you decide you need to go buy a generator, they will have none left.

I was without power for more than a week after Irene. Since I have a well, that meant I was also without water for drinking, bathing, or flushing the toilet.

I stayed somewhere else.

I then bought a slightly larger generac generator, and had an electrician install an inlet and a transfer switch. The generator will run most of my house as if I were on the grid. My plan is to run it in the morning before work for showers and breakfast, and in the evening after work, to relax and, if it's cold out, get the heat up enough to make it through the night.

I've already had to use the generator one morning when our local power went out.

I don't store gas, but I'll go out and fill up the cars and some gas cans if Sandy looks like it's going to come close. I have a siphon pump, so I can pull gas out of the car tanks if I need to. If I don't end up using the gas in the cans, I'll just fill the cars up with that gas rather than at the pump the next time they need it.

Being without power is the pits. I have no confidence in CLP.
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:51 PM
 
Location: On the Rails in Northern NJ
12,380 posts, read 26,856,553 times
Reputation: 4581
Hmmm Max Winds of 40mphs along the Coast with gusts up to 50mph....and inland 15-25mph...gusts up to 35mph....with lots of Rain.... Thats not even a Tropical Storm...both Air and Water are too cold to hold a tropical storm....and the wind sheer will destory the thing making it a classic Nor'eastern...
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:55 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,365,383 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Where do I start?

I'll be making my list tonight of what I need to pick up. Lets take a step back.. Models had Irene as a 950 something Cat 2 and 1 Hurricane hitting us with 80-90mph winds and all I got was 30-35mph wind gusts. Yes it was memorable but the point is maybe models underestimate the strength when it gets here.

Either way... there is no shame in preparing. I am having a hard time convincing myself to get a generator. If you guys want to, go ahead and just get gas too, open it if you lose power. If I wait until that day to go buy one, is that dumb??

Lets catch up now...
No doubt that being prepared is a smart move. Sandy or whatever it becomes, could be a historic storm somewhere in the Atlantic states. Still, I would wait till Sandy gets near the Bahamas – that’s normally when I push the panic button.

The NHC seems to think Sandy will emerge north of Grand Bahamas by Sat. I guess that part is pretty straightforward. After that, it seems to get pretty complicated: Does Sandy become a hybrid storm or stay a tropical cyclone? Swing OTS or will there be enough blocking to turn it north or even NW? . It should be interesting to watch. I did notice that NHC seems to make Sandy extratropical by 120 hrs. Although they are not so good that far out in intensity estimates. Still 70 knots (80 mph - gusts to 100 mph maybe) is still a severe ocean storm.

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/11. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK
FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING
THE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


GIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
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