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I would have to argue that 3.2 months of inventory is a buyers market... not a sellers. (west hartford)
I would agree.
Also….as a “data person “myself, I know that statistics can be quite misleading. Using demographic data everyday….you can take it from me…Connecticut will have a long way to go before there are more home buyers than home sellers.
Three months inventory in Connecticut is not like three months inventory in most other states. This is like going into a car dealership and the sales folks telling you that there are very few cars for sale because it’s a hot buyers market….they just don’t tell you they only have three cars for sale.
Connecticut is THE SLOWEST GROWING STATE IN AMERICA. On a per capita basis, Connecticut ranks dead last (behind such states as New Mexico and Mississippi)… for things like new housing starts, housing sales, multifamily construction, PUD’s (planned unit developments)…etc. According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut actually LOST population over the last 10 years- the only state besides Rhode Island in America to ever do so (in 350 years).
All this before the current economic meltdown/depression. Now that all these boomers are trying to cash out and are running scared…house prices will really tumble this winter. Prices will fall another 25% from where they are now before it’s all over.
So if your shopping for a home in Connecticut…it doesn’t get any better than this.
Would you feel prices settling back to 2002-2003 levels? Or Lower to 2001? I am trying to downsize.
Also a question for Amy- could you please Direct message
me.....
To really be honest…I think real estate prices will fall to 1998 levels. This is about 60% less than where they where in 2007 and 2008.
Think about it for a minute. Where are the mass of buyers?
The really younger set under 30 - is not in the position to buy a home with new grads having trouble even getting a job, credit frozen, massive student loans, and 20% down demands (absurd)…..
The next group, the 30 to say 49…is broke, struggling to keep their jobs, pay the bills, keep their head above water, and quite fearful of more debit. Most people in the 35 to 45 age group have smaller homes or are renters. The average age of first time American homeowners is 39 (according to the CB).
The group above that, say 50 to 68 (the so called boomers) are trying to downsize and cash in their equity in stocks, real estate, …etc….in advance of the retirement they waited 30 years for. That’s one of the real reasons that home and stock prices are falling and will continue to plunge. This age group has 75 million people, all trying to get into a liquid position…. all at once. It’s kind of like last man out loses. So they can only sell their large expensive homes to another boomer (really, how many 60 year olds with grown kids, are looking to buy a 2800 sq. house?), or drastically cut the price. There is no other choice.
The over 70 to group, has long since paid off their mortgage and is not shopping for a house. They could care less.
As far as downsizing, it’s a super smart thing to do. With prices for day to day living skyrocketing, the smaller and simpler your position the better. When I drive by all these 3200 square foot homes on two rolling acres of land built in the 1980’s and 1990’s …with their huge taxes, upkeep, and cost of heating and cooling….I think what where people thinking back then?
Staying lean in lean times… seems the only sensible way to go.
Connecticut is THE SLOWEST GROWING STATE IN AMERICA. On a per capita basis, Connecticut ranks dead last (behind such states as New Mexico and Mississippi)… for things like new housing starts, housing sales, multifamily construction, PUD’s (planned unit developments)…etc. According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut actually LOST population over the last 10 years- the only state besides Rhode Island in America to ever do so (in 350 years).
Where'd you get the info about CT losing population?
According to the census, CT gained about 100k from 2000 to estimated 2007
According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut lost population between 1990 and 2000. In fact, that’s why Connecticut lost a seat in the House of Representatives in 2001/2002.
Here is an article in the Hartford Courtney about the decline in Connecticut population. Connecticut population dropping + fewer immigrants = we're dead - Rick Green | CT Confidential. Remember, the only thing that may (maybe) slowing Connecticut’s population loss…is a change in newly arriving foreign-born immigrants - legal and illegal. Since Connecticut has a small number of immigrants relative to places like Arizona or California, our population is changing even more slowly. I use this article because it has a link to the US Cencus data. I have no political view about immigration.
Although population loss may have slowed since 2003 or so…Connecticut is still one of the slowest growing (if not the slowest growing) state in America population wise.. The next full Census is in 2010. I would be surprised if Connecticut’s population changes by more than 1 or 2%.
Trust me, I have been mapping demographic data for 20 years…you really don’t want to see Connecticut’s population and housing growth next to most places in the United States.
According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut lost population between 1990 and 2000. In fact, that’s why Connecticut lost a seat in the House of Representatives in 2001/2002.
Here is an article in the Hartford Courtney about the decline in Connecticut population. Connecticut population dropping + fewer immigrants = we're dead - Rick Green | CT Confidential. Remember, the only thing that may (maybe) slowing Connecticut’s population loss…is a change in newly arriving foreign-born immigrants - legal and illegal. Since Connecticut has a small number of immigrants relative to places like Arizona or California, our population is changing even more slowly.
Although population loss may have slowed since 2003 or so…Connecticut is still one of the slowest growing (if not the slowest growing) state in America population wise.. The next full Census is in 2010. I would be surprised if Connecticut’s population changes by more than 1 or 2%.
Trust me, I have been mapping demographic data for 20 years…you really don’t want to see Connecticut’s population and housing growth next to most places in the United States.
1990-2000 is nearly 1-2 decades ago
I would be careful about projecting that into the next decade and beyond.
Issues like climate change and other variables may 'destroy' areas to the south and southwest with their attractiveness-which has reigned over the last 45 years. Water issues and extreme heat and tropical cyclones may diminish these regions reasons for in migration. Also realize that housing here is not overbuilt- and despite the rather slow growth in population since 2000, demand here for housing may be not as bad as you suggest. Housing here may decline to 2002 levels, but the states economy though currently not robust, is stronger then other areas of the nation, that have relied on housing as a major factor in growth over the last decade.
Last edited by skytrekker; 10-09-2008 at 12:38 PM..
According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut lost population between 1990 and 2000. In fact, that’s why Connecticut lost a seat in the House of Representatives in 2001/2002.
Here is an article in the Hartford Courtney about the decline in Connecticut population. Connecticut population dropping + fewer immigrants = we're dead - Rick Green | CT Confidential. Remember, the only thing that may (maybe) slowing Connecticut’s population loss…is a change in newly arriving foreign-born immigrants - legal and illegal. Since Connecticut has a small number of immigrants relative to places like Arizona or California, our population is changing even more slowly. I use this article because it has a link to the US Cencus data. I have no political view about immigration.
Although population loss may have slowed since 2003 or so…Connecticut is still one of the slowest growing (if not the slowest growing) state in America population wise.. The next full Census is in 2010. I would be surprised if Connecticut’s population changes by more than 1 or 2%.
Trust me, I have been mapping demographic data for 20 years…you really don’t want to see Connecticut’s population and housing growth next to most places in the United States.
So you are saying that even though CT's actual population clearly grew from 1990 until today by 200k+, that growth is solely fueled by immigrants? In other words, people are moving out of the state, but due to immigrants we are gaining population?
The census overall numbers clearly show CT's population growing, albeit slowly (relative to most states anyway).
According to the US Census Bureau…Connecticut lost population between 1990 and 2000. In fact, that’s why Connecticut lost a seat in the House of Representatives in 2001/2002.
Connecticut lost a congressional seat because its population increased at a lesser rate than other states'. It might have decreased during this 10-year period or it could have increased a bit.
Between 1990 and 2000, 8 states gained congressional districts while 10 states lost congressionals districts:
+2 Arizona
+1 California
+1 Colorado
-1 Connecticut
+2 Florida
+2 Georgia
-1 Illinois
-1 Indiana
-1 Michigan
-1 Mississippi
+1 Nevada
-2 New York
+1 North Carolina
-1 Ohio
-1 Oklahoma
-2 Pennsylvania
+2 Texas
-1 Wisconsin
One could argue that we changed places with Colorado:
90 00 State
+6 +5 Connecticut (we lost 1)
+6 +7 Colorado (they gained 1)
So you are saying that even though CT's actual population clearly grew from 1990 until today by 200k+, that growth is solely fueled by immigrants? In other words, people are moving out of the state, but due to immigrants we are gaining population?
That is exactly what I’m saying!
However the number of live births is 70% reason that the real count is not in the negative numbers (not yet). Immigration plays about 30% of that. This can be a confusing topic for several reasons.
First, the only do “official” pop counts ever 10 years. Since around 1970…the CB started supplying mid and late decade pop estimates for marketing uses and other people needing pop data. Although accurate, they were not as complete as the official 10 year counts.
Around 1992, Connecticut starting losing population…and by the 1995 estimate had fewer people than in 1990. Then we had some very small growth in 1996, 1997, and 1998, then lost population again in the last year of the decade. The net change was + 3.6% over the 1990 to 2000 period. This was 45th slowest rate of growth of the lower 48 states…only North Dakota (0.5 %), West Virginia ( 0.8%), and Pennsylvania (3.4%)….had less population growth.
However, the above numbers are misleading. Connecticut did gain 118,000 people from 1990 to 2000. However, much of this gain was the number of live births over the death rate and a increase immigrants (Yale alone has 3,000 foreign nationals from teachers and students to think tanks and research arms connectced to the university that are counted in the local population).
There is a number known as “net internal migration”. This is a fancy way of saying the total number of people within each state that have moved in and moved out of each state. Without pasting in a whole chart - Connecticut NIM has been falling since 1990. The only reason Connecticut is not showing a net loss of people…is due to the number of births and some small increase in foreign immigration.
Our company maps a tremendous amount of data for marketing and science use. Although I’m not a social science map person…I’ve seen enough data to know that Connecticut is no “hot bed” of growth. The latest example was a GIS of engineering firms (PE’s) in Connecticut. In 1988, there where 647 engineering firms in the State of Connecticut. By 1995, that number fell to 318 (a 50% reduction), by 2001, there where only 206 engineering firms left in Connecticut. Our company is doing a count this month (October 2008) for a marketing firm…they have only counted 81. New Haven County lost 19 engineering firms in the last 5 years alone!
I live in Connecticut, and the state has a lot of advantages…. and I enjoy living here for the most part. We are a coastal state, with proxmity to the big cities and places of interest on the East Coast, we have a rather mild climate with a long growing season, and an intelligent and tolerate population. However, there is no way to gloss over Connecticut’s stagnant growth rate. People in general just tend not to move here or move from here.
The numbers show that no matter how you look at them.
The latest example was a GIS of engineering firms (PE’s) in Connecticut. In 1988, there where 647 engineering firms in the State of Connecticut. By 1995, that number fell to 318 (a 50% reduction), by 2001, there where only 206 engineering firms left in Connecticut. Our company is doing a count this month (October 2008) for a marketing firm…they have only counted 81. New Haven County lost 19 engineering firms in the last 5 years alone!
The number of engineering firms in the state has nothing to do with population growth and the loss of firms is due to changes within the industry not population. In the 80's a large number of small new firms were formed in response to an increase in infrastructure building and private development. In the 90's, many of those smaller newer firms closed because the economy went south. Also, fewer students went into engineering, opting for the then new computer industry. This created a significant labor shortage that exists today. Right now, there is a consolidation in the industry where firms are merging with each other to create larger firms in order to better attrack new workers and better compete for new work. These trends are occuring nationwide and not just in Connecticut. Jay
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