Million Dollar Question - Buy or Wait? 2022 Edition (Leonard, Leona: home builder, tech jobs)

[usc619]

Originally Posted by iamanewuser

Say more..don't keep us hanging. I'm in the market as a watcher and potentially a buyer at some point. Thank you!

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

This post is just your opinion unless you present facts…so do tell us, what exactly are you seeing? DOM increasing? Prices falling below spring 2022 levels? An increase in foreclosures or pre-foreclosures?

I've been watching Prices, DOM, Trends, etc... for years in Collin County. Based on what I'm seeing, IMHO it's at its peak. I'll be the first to come back on here and eat crow, but unfortunately that's not going to be the case.

[Lorne]

Originally Posted by usc619

I've been watching Prices, DOM, Trends, etc... for years in Collin County. Based on what I'm seeing, IMHO it's at its peak. I'll be the first to come back on here and eat crow, but unfortunately that's not going to be the case.

Please do elaborate. So far it just sounds like your opinion. What kind of indicators are you seeing that will suggest a correction/bubble burst in Colin County, specifically?

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by usc619

I've been watching Prices, DOM, Trends, etc... for years in Collin County. Based on what I'm seeing, IMHO it's at its peak. I'll be the first to come back on here and eat crow, but unfortunately that's not going to be the case.

Still just your opinion without stats. Show the data.

I’m not saying you’re wrong (or right) but you’re not really building your case for a peak.

[osucowboy]

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...lina-anna.html

I would think builders would know a thing or two about the near term future of RE

[camom_ptn]

DOM is definitely increasing..many properties in Collin county used to go to pending state within 1 or 2 days even without open house, not anymore..

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by osucowboy

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...lina-anna.html

I would think builders would know a thing or two about the near term future of RE

I can't read the article, but my guess is that the numbers are down because they aren't building, not because they aren't selling.

[crazyforger]

Once the supply chain gets fixed, there will be more building and further price drops.

Target and walmart have excess inventory because they ordered more stuff just to be sure.

At some point, home builders are going to have excess stuff to install as well.

[Cicnod]

One of the issues I don't think that people realize here is that supply levels are going to be greatly diminished while demand will still remain above supply IMO. The reason:

Most people at this point who own a home have a 3-4% mortgage rate. I don't see many willing to list and sell their house to sign up for a bigger house (which is what you see most people moving for) or more expensive use with a 65+ mortgage rate. Because of that I think you will see people staying in their current home which means a lower supply of homes.

Going from a $400,000 mortgage at 3% is about half of the payment of a $560,000 mortgage at 6%.

[crazyforger]

Originally Posted by Cicnod

One of the issues I don't think that people realize here is that supply levels are going to be greatly diminished while demand will still remain above supply IMO. The reason:

Most people at this point who own a home have a 3-4% mortgage rate. I don't see many willing to list and sell their house to sign up for a bigger house (which is what you see most people moving for) or more expensive use with a 65+ mortgage rate. Because of that I think you will see people staying in their current home which means a lower supply of homes.

Going from a $400,000 mortgage at 3% is about half of the payment of a $560,000 mortgage at 6%.

And they aren't going to upgrade either.
It goes both ways.

Meanwhile, US population has plateaued and the average age has been increasing for a while.
Seniors who have been postponing to move to retirement homes due to covid are going to do so in coming years.
With WFH phenomenon, many more software jobs are going to get offshored thanks to Republicans who aren't letting immigration reform to happen.

[Xalistiq]

Originally Posted by Cicnod

One of the issues I don't think that people realize here is that supply levels are going to be greatly diminished while demand will still remain above supply IMO. The reason:

Most people at this point who own a home have a 3-4% mortgage rate. I don't see many willing to list and sell their house to sign up for a bigger house (which is what you see most people moving for) or more expensive use with a 65+ mortgage rate. Because of that I think you will see people staying in their current home which means a lower supply of homes.

Going from a $400,000 mortgage at 3% is about half of the payment of a $560,000 mortgage at 6%.

I don’t understand why people continue to make this non-sensical argument.

Historically, higher mortgage interest rates have translated into lower home prices. It is absurd to argue that these high prices, driven by Fed-interventionist rate suppression are sustainable, when rates are already averaging 5.5%, and will go higher soon, as the Fed has committed to two 50 basis point increases in June and July.

Additionally, if we enter into a recession, as I have been predicting we will since the start of this thread, there will most assuredly be more job losses (which we are already seeing), which will also increase inventory.

Home prices are currently the highest they’ve ever been relative to household incomes in recorded history, and now interest rates are surging.

The market has cooled in recent weeks because home prices are still extremely high, and have not yet adjusted to explosive interest rate hikes over the past three months.