Is this the crash? (Dallas, Frisco: how much, buying a home, neighborhoods)

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Leonard123

Frisco seems to be your primary focus, and I'm not sure it's really a valid baseline for the north Texas/DFW housing market as a whole. If you are so eager to live in Frisco, then why not just move there?

Because Frisco is a perfect example of extreme up and down that is much easier to track?

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Your example is a 50% decline. I can argue that the majority of listings in Frisco in 600-800K range are probably brining in about 30-40% less than they would during the peak of the craze. People used to bid up 20% of the listing price just to get the place.

No way have prices declined 30-40% in Frisco already. I'm on record as saying Frisco new builds in the $800k-$1MM range will be hit the hardest in DFW, but I can't see how a 30-40% drop has happened already. Asking prices have gone up in many cases since those 20% overbids were happening. Case Shiller still shows positive price growth (although slowing) nationally.

[CamThomas]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I personally think the hottest areas in the country, like Boise, will see a 20-25% drop in prices, if not a bit more. I think the next-tier hot markets like DFW, Denver, Colorado Springs, etc. will see a 10-20% drop in prices. That's significant. An $800k house could become a $640k house.

I'm mostly just guessing on my numbers, but the combination of higher mortgage rates, a likely recession and (importantly) significantly different buyer sentiment add up to powerful downward forces.

Whether one thinks a 10-20% drop from the highest highs we've ever seen is a crash or not is a different question. But it is significant for housing, which rarely goes down in value at all.

Gotta lump Austin in with Boise. I don't see any drop though, maybe slowed growth.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

No way have prices declined 30-40% in Frisco already. I'm on record as saying Frisco new builds in the $800k-$1MM range will be hit the hardest in DFW, but I can't see how a 30-40% drop has happened already. Asking prices have gone up in many cases since those 20% overbids were happening. Case Shiller still shows positive price growth (although slowing) nationally.

If you look at hottest markets aka Frisco/Celina/Prosper there are cases where people were paying double of 2018-2019 price during height after bidding wars. Right now, these homes are on market for 40-50% above 2019 level and only these seem to be closing. Considering that 'official' inflation over last 3 years is around 20% thats a big deal.


I think you are underestimating the absolute insanity that was happening during the peak covid craze in north suburbs. It was pretty normal to get extremely close to paying double the price of pre-covid once all bidding wars and 'cash for owners' was added up.

Like I said before, you can get a 3200-3500sqft new build now for 750-775K in Frisco. A year ago, they were bidding and on wait list for Park Vista 680K 1650sqft bungalow.

Pre Covid a 3200-3500sqft in Frisco new construction would set you back around 550K-600K of comparable quality

We since then have gone through at least 20% inflation thats official and non compounded.

To give a more specific example, I saw recently. 7229 San Saba Dr, McKinney, TX 75070. Those in their majority in that area were sold for ~400K in 2019. Some went to be sold as much as 650 and 700K some months ago. Meanwhile this one is sitting on market for 550K after being reduced from 625K. It's probably going to sell at 500K or 525K. It was bought for 400K in 2019. There are quite a few examples out there.

Pretty sure those are zoned for Allen ISD with 9 and 10 out of 10 schools all around, right on tollway and literally couple mins away from Frisco. 30% price hike from 2019 - considering inflation and all pretty good deal I'd say. I'm surprised its sitting on market for this long quite frankly, it falls way under conventional loan limits and can be bought with 3% down. Would be a great starter home. I really can't imagine this place sitting on market at all at the height of the craze.

[hereticiam]

Here is an example https://redf.in/sCFkKD

Bought March 2019 for 800K and tried to sell for 1.7 million.
They were a bit late to the market and asked for too much.


Another one https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...ource=txtshare

Bought for $799K and trying to sell for over $1.3 three years later.

These high prices are not going to come back anytime soon. Folks who want to sell need to slash prices rapidly

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by hereticiam

Here is an example https://redf.in/sCFkKD

Bought March 2019 for 800K and tried to sell for 1.7 million.
They were a bit late to the market and asked for too much.


Another one https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...ource=txtshare

Bought for $799K and trying to sell for over $1.3 three years later.

These high prices are not going to come back anytime soon. Folks who want to sell need to slash prices rapidly

The last home would/will sell for 950K - 1M I'd say. Which is about 30-40% above 2019. It was bought for 699K pretty sure. 4 Years, over 20% inflation in that time period. Agents rip out 6% of that alone (I know you can list for less but for argument sake)

Again my point is that from the HEIGHT of the Craze - we have not corrected but crashed. People keep forgetting the inflation, when everyone was FOMOing into houses at insane prices, we were on the brink of deflation. Over 2020-21-22 we have seen around 20% inflation and that is Official data which is heavily conservative.

The market in NORTH DFW is actually hilarious to watch. You have all these people listing their homes for double 2019 rate because that's what homes sold for not too long ago. Yet they missed the party and all of a sudden that is not flying anymore at all. It's like a headless chicken still running around.

In a way this is sad, a basic necessity has become pump and dump like GME stock.

[CamThomas]

Originally Posted by hereticiam

Here is an example https://redf.in/sCFkKD

Bought March 2019 for 800K and tried to sell for 1.7 million.
They were a bit late to the market and asked for too much.


Another one https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...ource=txtshare

Bought for $799K and trying to sell for over $1.3 three years later.

These high prices are not going to come back anytime soon. Folks who want to sell need to slash prices rapidly

Man, for the price, that is a beautiful home. Wow.

[Taub201]

The Prosper one is a 15 year old home with a $100K price cut today, to $1.15M.

The first one in Lucas now says ***$30,000 SELLER CREDIT TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS OR INTEREST BUY DOWN***

The froth on my cappuccino has not flattened quite a bit.

[Kenro911]

Soon we will see Sushi and Mimosas at open houses....

[hereticiam]

Originally Posted by Taub201

The Prosper one is a 15 year old home with a $100K price cut today, to $1.15M.

The first one in Lucas now says ***$30,000 SELLER CREDIT TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS OR INTEREST BUY DOWN***

The froth on my cappuccino has not flattened quite a bit.

It will take more than 30K credit to sell that home. There was another Prosper home which was purchased for 750K in 2019 that was asking for cool 1.5 million. I was shocked when it went pending recently but it came back and did a 50K price reduction. Even if one can afford these homes why would they buy them now. Most of these buyer will taKe a long time to react to the changing conditions. The longer they wait the worse it will get.