Downtown Denver is screwed (Aurora, Arvada: real estate, apartment, rental)

[Phil P]

All downtowns will be taking a hit from the coronavirus shutdowns, but downtown Denver will be hit very hard from the recent events, moreso than most other downtowns. Here's why:

1. The oil and gas sector collapse. Denver wasn't as heavy into O&G as other places, but these companies did take up a big section of downtown office space, and many of these employees won't be coming back.

2. RTDs failure. RTD was already on the rocks before this whole thing started; now, it's crippled for the foreseeable future. A sizeable swath of people used RTD to get into downtown. Likewise many people living in the downtown area lived without a car and without reliable transit, it's very difficult to continue living in such an arrangement.

3. Sky high real estate prices prior to the shutdown. Denver had some of the most expensive real estate prices and rents in the CBD area in the nation, relative to it's size. The higher the prices were before, the farther they have to fall now.

4. Sports stadiums. With Denver having 4 major league sports teams based right downtown, it has one of the highest concentration of teams relative to it's size. Seeing as those won't open for another year or 2, the lost revenue from fans will be huge, and all that loss is concentrated in the same area effected by the above 3 points.

I work at a company with about 250 employees officed in the the middle of downtown. We just heard from our last company wide call that they do not expect to have anyone back into the office until September(ish) and they don't expect to be fully open again till the end of the year to early next year. Apparently the cities restrictions were something along the line of temperature testing every employee when they entered, one entry and one exit with a one way path... Basically a big pain. If I'm given the ability to work from home on a more permanent basis, which is looking increasingly likely, I'll axe my apartment lease near downtown and head to one of the smaller towns in the mountains or somewhere else, and likely won't be back downtown except for occasional visits.

It's hard not to see the writing on the wall here... All these effects will compound on each other. I doubt downtown will be able to bounce back to it's previous stage for 5 years at least. I don't know what it will look like in the next 1-3 years.

[alloo66]

One will know soon enough. All urban areas will be screwed which means that suburban cities will grow and have the same issues as Denver. Just a shift in traffic, shopping,...etc. Only thing is that those other cities won't have public transportation, or sports teams to help them. Oil and gas will affect suburban cities more as people will move out of the burbs too. Maybe companies with Suburban locations will want to move downtown. Better infrastructure. Who knows.

[jweb29]

Yup, I was SUPER into downtown, but now I'm suddenly pining for the mountain towns.... golden at least! I know i'm not the only one! Software jobs can work from home indefinitely. People will leave the city.

[jwiley]

The whole metro area is in trouble, whether anybody wants to admit it or not. A lot of people are looking at the rising crime rate, the restrictions in place, and the lack of family that is local to them and deciding it is not worth it. Especially those who can work from home. I know people that own rental properties in eastern Colorado and western Kansas and they have people calling them from Denver and Kansas City daily looking for somewhere closer to their families and trying to get out of the metro area. The question is if there are going to be so many people leaving that it will balance the demand? A year ago there were estimates that the Denver front range needed as many as 50,000 housing units to meet demand, that is a huge demand.

[TCHP]

Hmmm, I've heard this all before. I believe in the 70-80s it was the rush to the suburbs.

Downtowns will always hold some appeal to a percentage of the populace. The density creates development and range of choice that, in more healthy times, makes it a desirable place to be without driving all over creation to get what you want.

Even if jobs can be done remotely, there is not always robust enough tele-commuting infrastructure in rural areas to support the speed and security some companies will demand of tele-work. You can dream of working from BFE, but the reality is not everyone will be able to.

[BornintheSprings]

Originally Posted by TCHP

Hmmm, I've heard this all before. I believe in the 70-80s it was the rush to the suburbs.

Downtowns will always hold some appeal to a percentage of the populace. The density creates development and range of choice that, in more healthy times, makes it a desirable place to be without driving all over creation to get what you want.

Even if jobs can be done remotely, there is not always robust enough tele-commuting infrastructure in rural areas to support the speed and security some companies will demand of tele-work. You can dream of working from BFE, but the reality is not everyone will be able to.

They really need to get good high speed internet to every part of the US its essentially a utility now.

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by jwiley

A lot of people are looking at the rising crime rate

City-Data shows that some crime is up in the last decade and some is down. Overall, flat.

[COcheesehead]

Originally Posted by jwiley

The whole metro area is in trouble, whether anybody wants to admit it or not. A lot of people are looking at the rising crime rate, the restrictions in place, and the lack of family that is local to them and deciding it is not worth it. Especially those who can work from home. I know people that own rental properties in eastern Colorado and western Kansas and they have people calling them from Denver and Kansas City daily looking for somewhere closer to their families and trying to get out of the metro area. The question is if there are going to be so many people leaving that it will balance the demand? A year ago there were estimates that the Denver front range needed as many as 50,000 housing units to meet demand, that is a huge demand.

We came to this conclusion even before the pandemic.
We liked downtown, we spent a lot of time there, but then it started to change.
Busier, definitely dirtier. The "coolness" was starting to dissipate.

I still spend a big part of each month in Denver, but we really love our permanent home in Grand Junction.

We have run into many "front rangers" getting out of Dodge to the western slope.
Slower pace, more space and just as much or more to do without fighting for a parking space at a trailhead.

[Phil P]

Yes, at some time, downtown will bounce back, just like the airlines will - eventually. But, all these effects combined means there will be a lot of vacancy, defaulting, and closures that are going to make a big dent for 3 years at least. For instance, the bars and restaurants will probably only be about 1/2 of what they were before, and with those gone, there's just less people who are going to be around... It's harder to determine with the entire metro area as some places may gain from downtown's losses. COS will be much better off than Denver though as the military did not change at all with this. I think the COS to Denver daily commute is history though, prices have begun to equalize and there's far less people that have to do that and NOBODY does that unless they HAVE to.

I don't think we'll see a suburban resurgence, it'll be an exurban one. Suburbs were built around people needing to drive somewhere everyday and offer a half compromise between the house and acreage of somewhere small and having the shortest possible commute. With corona, the shift that's happening is the commute is disappearing or switching to once a week. Without the 5 day a week commute, people are not going to want to be in Aurora, they'll want to be in Bailey or Idaho Springs or Elizabeth. Myself, Canon City looks to be the most attractive if I don't have to be in the office once a week.

Internet access will indeed accelerate as places without it will lose out, so small communities will have a greater push for it. But, it'll be more available if you're close to the central nodes, say within the Georgetown city limits, than in some 20 acre minimum lot size community on the eastern fringe of Brighton.

What I hope transpires out of all of this is the idea of a megalopolis (1,000,000+ metros) becomes outdated as the megalopolis really made no progress in solving it's lingering problems: commute times and congestion, air quality, inequality and home affordability, and the growing disconnect with nature and being outside.

Instead, I hope we pivot back to a model of a city (20,000-500,000 people) as the new desired arrangement. There's still validity in density, urban form, and a downtown, these things will continue, but instead of downtown being row after row of 35 story office buildings and $35 parking, it's street after street of 3-10 story buildings, like what a downtown historically was, before the high rises came in and tore those buildings down. This size of city will also allow people to have much better access to nature without the weekend warrior traffic jam as 2.8 million people all look to 3 roads to get out of town.

[annie_himself]

This actually makes me hate the suburbs more. With being able to work from home, that would allow me to sell my car, move to the city and not have to rely on transit for going to work, only for play or errands.
While being in close quarters with people isn't great with Covid around but after this is over, I hate living in Arvada even more.

Originally Posted by Phil P

What I hope transpires out of all of this is the idea of a megalopolis (1,000,000+ metros) becomes outdated as the megalopolis really made no progress in solving it's lingering problems: commute times and congestion, air quality, inequality and home affordability, and the growing disconnect with nature and being outside.

Instead, I hope we pivot back to a model of a city (20,000-500,000 people) as the new desired arrangement. There's still validity in density, urban form, and a downtown, these things will continue, but instead of downtown being row after row of 35 story office buildings and $35 parking, it's street after street of 3-10 story buildings, like what a downtown historically was, before the high rises came in and tore those buildings down. This size of city will also allow people to have much better access to nature without the weekend warrior traffic jam as 2.8 million people all look to 3 roads to get out of town.

Well I think to be fair, policies were never put in place to reduce congestion, air quality, inequality, home affordability, and access to nature. People may have made vain, small attempts but we all know planting trees on your downtown streets isn't going to mitigate hundreds of years of pollution. Neither will building a light rail line that I have to drive to, pay to park, and pay for fare just to use it. I'm not walking on Federal to get there. It's like blatant sabotage that turns Americans away from this development style.

That won't happen unless those cities are all dense and there's basically no suburban sprawl. That will likely never happen due to American policy and how many Americans are conditioned to think.