Detroit homicides fall to lowest level since 1967 Read more: Detroit homicides fall to lowest level since 1967 | freep. (Wyoming: crime rate, unemployment)

[Jwo85]

Great news in hearing the decline but those who visit Detroit frequent or live there already knew about this.
Detroit homicides fall to lowest level since 1967 | freep.com | Detroit Free Press (http://www.freep.com/article/20110104/NEWS01/101040346/1320/Detroit-murders-at-lowest-level-since-1967 - broken link)

[Retroit]

"Homicide numbers in Detroit are lower than they were 10 years ago, but estimated population drops during the same period could keep Detroit in the running as one of the nation's most murderous cities."

[Indentured Servant]

Good News!

I have always found it mathematically intriguing as to how and why a city can have a very close number of homicides year after year. Why did Detroit linger at around 400 homicides for so long? Why is it an almost sure bet that there will be 300 homicides in the city this year? Why not 100 or 1,000? What is it mathematically probable that there will be 300 murders again this year?

There are many large cities, such as Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston and others that have seen substantial drops in their homicide rates. Chicago’s numbers are at the lowest level since 1965. New York, although up from last year, has homicide rate at 1960’s levels. Hence, there is a national phenomenon going on. Despite an increase in poverty and unemployment, violent crime is dropping. My guess is that it has a lot to do with drugs. Drugs really increased the violent crime rate in America since the 60’s and my guess now is that the decline in homicides is also somehow correlated with what is going on with drugs nationally.

Whatever the reason…..I hope it is a trend that continues. Detroit used to have a rate of over 60 murders per 100,000 people. Now, based upon population estimates, it’s about half that. It means that Detroit is twice as safe as it was in the 80’s and early 90’s, at least in regards to murder, which is an excellent trend. If Detroit reduced its number of murders to just 10, if there exists other major cities that only had 6 or 7, people would still use that as a pretext to rationalize why they and others don’t want to live in the city and use it to disparage Detroit.

[ForStarters]

Originally Posted by Retroit

"Homicide numbers in Detroit are lower than they were 10 years ago, but estimated population drops during the same period could keep Detroit in the running as one of the nation's most murderous cities."

The per capita rate is trending down year-after-year.

2006- 47/100k

2008- 40/100k

2010- 33/100k

[Retroit]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

If Detroit reduced its number of murders to just 10, if there exists other major cities that only had 6 or 7, people would still use that as a pretext to rationalize why they and others don’t want to live in the city and use it to disparage Detroit.

Of course, and why shouldn't they? Why would you expect people to stay in a city with a 10/100,000 murder rate when they can live in a city with a 6/100,000 murder rate. You talk as if we should all love Detroit just because it is here, and not make any attempt to make it a lovable, or more lovable, city.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by Retroit

Of course, and why shouldn't they? Why would you expect people to stay in a city with a 10/100,000 murder rate when they can live in a city with a 6/100,000 murder rate. You talk as if we should all love Detroit just because it is here, and not make any attempt to make it a lovable, or more lovable, city.

I lived in Detroit 8 years and was not once the victim of a violent crime. This was in the late 80's when there were over 600 homicides yearly. Much of the homicides have to do with being engaged in illegal activity or hanging around the wrong crowd or escalating confrontations instead of just walking away and letting things go. I did those things and had no problems. Just because people are getting killed does not mean that there is a high probability that you will be killed. Would you not move to a city or state that has a higher per capita rate of automobile deaths? Places like Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and others have an accident death rate per capita that is almost as high as Detroits murder rate per capita in 2010. Some communities in Metro Detroit likely have high accident death rates but I bet you would not think twice about driving through those places and you might very well live in one of those places. You are probably just as likely to be hurt in a car accident as you are to be hurt from crime in Detroit. So I take it you don't drive much?

[ForStarters]

Originally Posted by Retroit

Of course, and why shouldn't they? Why would you expect people to stay in a city with a 10/100,000 murder rate when they can live in a city with a 6/100,000 murder rate. You talk as if we should all love Detroit just because it is here, and not make any attempt to make it a lovable, or more lovable, city.

I get what you're saying, but most people try to find a balance. Chicago is not as safe as Oswego, Illinois, so why do people continue to live in the city? It boils down to a trade-off. For most people, crime is one thing that weighs on the scale. If people find the benefits of the city to outweigh the negatives, then they'll reside there. The fact that Detroit's per capita murder rate continues to fall will mean more people are willing to make the trade-off. So, at least in terms of crime, Detroit is becoming "more lovable."

P.S. I really like your "lovable city" thing, I'm probably going to adopt into my lingo... reminds me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_Ho...eature=related Fredde Le Grand "Put Your Hands Up For Detroit- A Lovely City"

[Retroit]

Originally Posted by ForStarters

I get what you're saying, but most people try to find a balance. Chicago is not as safe as Oswego, Illinois, so why do people continue to live in the city? It boils down to a trade-off. For most people, crime is one thing that weighs on the scale. If people find the benefits of the city to outweigh the negatives, then they'll reside there. The fact that Detroit's per capita murder rate continues to fall will mean more people are willing to make the trade-off. So, at least in terms of crime, Detroit is becoming "more lovable."

That is true, but crime is a big deterrent for people not moving to Detroit. If Detroit had as much commercial/business activity as Chicago, I don't think crime would be as big of a deterrent, but since it doesn't, crime is a huge deterrent.

I'll make an analogy to rail transit (in our ongoing debate). If Detroit had as much commercial/business activity as Chicago, I think rail transit would be necessary, but since it doesn't, I don't think the lack of it is a big deterrent.

[Retroit]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

I lived in Detroit 8 years and was not once the victim of a violent crime. Well good for you. But that doesn't mean that Detroit is safe. My uncle survived the Battle of the Bulge, but that doesn't mean the level of violence was desirable. This was in the late 80's when there were over 600 homicides yearly. Much of the homicides have to do with being engaged in illegal activity or hanging around the wrong crowd or escalating confrontations instead of just walking away and letting things go.And many victims are innocent. I did those things and had no problems. Just because people are getting killed does not mean that there is a high probability that you will be killed. True, but there is a higher probability of you being killed there than elsewhere. So where do you expect people to prefer? Would you not move to a city or state that has a higher per capita rate of automobile deaths? Places like Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota and others have an accident death rate per capita that is almost as high as Detroits murder rate per capita in 2010. Some communities in Metro Detroit likely have high accident death rates but I bet you would not think twice about driving through those places and you might very well live in one of those places. You are probably just as likely to be hurt in a car accident as you are to be hurt from crime in Detroit. So I take it you don't drive much? If one quarter of the Detroit metropolitan area had an accident rate much higher than the other 3/4, I would avoid that area.

........

[313Weather]

Wouldn't it techncially correlate with the population decline (naturally the less people you have the less of an opportunity one would have to commit a worthwhile crime and thus the less crime that's actually committed)?

The statistic would be more impressive is Detroit had a mroe stagnant, or even gorwing population.