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It's the younger white suburbanites that are moving into the city from what I can tell.
Suburbanites are not moving to Detroit in significant numbers. If they were the city's population wouldn't be declining and unemployment would not be over 20%.
Indentured Servant has it right. Detroit loses about 10 upwardly mobile African Americans for every hipster that moves in. That's a bad exchange rate.
I still think the best option is to turn this place into a real life Vice City. Legalize anything with a substantial black market and impose taxes.
The problem is the placebo effect. Far too many people tell Detroit that it has swallowed a poison pill, the last 50 years, which assures its death. Even when the victim shows some positive signs, it is reminded that those signs are futile and meaningless....false hope, if you will. Collectively, the poison pill crowd stopped feeding the city that they once provided the majority of its nutrients. The gradual deterioration in weight and health, resulting from the decline of nutrients, thus reinforced the belief that Detroit had swallowed a poison pill and was destined to die.
The moral of the story here is the power of self fulfilling prophecy.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy:
Process by which one�s expectations about another person eventually lead the other person to behave in ways that confirm these expectations
NOTE: Self-fulfilling prophecies must involve at least two people-- you cannot have a self-fulfilling prophecy with yourself 4 Steps to Self-Fulfilling Prophecy 1. Perceiver has expectations about how target will behave
2. Perceiver then behaves in a way that is likely to elicit the expected target behavior
3. Target indeed behaves in a way that confirms perceiver�s expectations
4. Perceiver (Objective Perceiver) sees predicted behavior Examples of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy * You expect your new roommate to be shy so you don�t speak much to him after he moves in, and he therefore does seem shy
* A coach expects his freshmen to be uncoordinated and unskilled so he does not play them often, and when he does they are rusty and do not perform well
* Your professor expects you to do well and she spends extra time with you preparing for the exam, so you get an A NOT examples of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy * You repeat "I think I can, I think I can" as you try to jog up a steep hill, and as a result you are able to make it
* You have a bad experience the first time you go skiing so you never go back again and never get better
* Because you get a bad grade on your first exam you give up and stop studying at all, leading you to fail the course
Part of the solution to this problem is reversing the psychology. People just need to start believing that Detroit IS or WILL turn around......as much as they believed it would decline. Also, people need to manage expectations. Detroit is set up for failure by those looking for a quick fix or rapid turnaround. Detroit did not decline all in a few years and its not going to recover in just a few years either. Its obvious to me, however, that there has been an inflection point.
I think the problem is that Detroit thinks it can "inspirational quote" its way to prosperity. "If we just think long and hard about being successful, it will happen." That's not going to happen.
Take any prosperous city and figure out why it's prosperous: it's directly related to household growth and business growth. While pride in city "helps," it does not do anything for a pro-forma, a business plan, a mortgage closing document, or a pre-school sign up sheet. Confidence does, and the belief that an investment you make now will grow in years to come.
So if anyone commenting on this thread was "hired" to induce investment in the city, and grow the population with recordable, accountable ROI for 10, 20, 30 years from now, what would you do? You can't clean up the crime or reinvigorate the schools until you reverse the population slide. So how?
People will live in Detroit. If you can picture a Detroit with streets and sidewalks rebuilt, and new affordable and market rate houses for blocks and blocks stretching out from strategic business districts that are targeted for reinvestment zones. But they won't do it now with the way the system, governance and taxation is set up. So how do you go from point A today to point C?
Keep in mind this country is on the brink of a housing shortage. National homebuilders are only doing about 1/2 the volume they did historically before the market crash. They can't keep up with demand for housing, and cheap land is getting scarce so they can't expand supply.
So if anyone commenting on this thread was "hired" to induce investment in the city, and grow the population with recordable, accountable ROI for 10, 20, 30 years from now, what would you do? You can't clean up the crime or reinvigorate the schools until you reverse the population slide. So how?
What's there to say that you can't do both at the same time? Or at least the crime side of it.
I would continue what Detroit is currently doing which is subsidizing development. Though, I would give more incentive to restoration and renovation rather than new construction. Part of the problem now is that it's very expensive to renovate so many vacant structures and the free market (aka lenders) don't have the confidence to invest in new construction until something is done with those vacant properties.
Giving more incentives for restoration also reduces crime as then there becomes less property where criminals are able to hideout. Another plus is that Detroit will be able to retain more unique architecture which makes the city more desirable in the long run. Demolition is always an option, but Detroit is unique among American cities by having such a wealth of historic architecture. It would be highly shameful to lose that critical quality.
Schools, I feel, are sort of a separate issue. You don't necessarily need good schools to attract a population. Maybe to attract a greater affluent population, of course, but I think it's a bad idea to try and gentrify the city on a wide scale in such a short amount of time. We ought to provide jobs first, reduce poverty, and then try and worry about improving schools and attracting higher income families. Which, honestly, I sort of believe will happen near simultaneously or in a quick time frame if done right.
I think the problem is that Detroit thinks it can "inspirational quote" its way to prosperity. "If we just think long and hard about being successful, it will happen." That's not going to happen.
Take any prosperous city and figure out why it's prosperous: it's directly related to household growth and business growth. While pride in city "helps," it does not do anything for a pro-forma, a business plan, a mortgage closing document, or a pre-school sign up sheet. Confidence does, and the belief that an investment you make now will grow in years to come.
So if anyone commenting on this thread was "hired" to induce investment in the city, and grow the population with recordable, accountable ROI for 10, 20, 30 years from now, what would you do? You can't clean up the crime or reinvigorate the schools until you reverse the population slide. So how?
People will live in Detroit. If you can picture a Detroit with streets and sidewalks rebuilt, and new affordable and market rate houses for blocks and blocks stretching out from strategic business districts that are targeted for reinvestment zones. But they won't do it now with the way the system, governance and taxation is set up. So how do you go from point A today to point C?
Keep in mind this country is on the brink of a housing shortage. National homebuilders are only doing about 1/2 the volume they did historically before the market crash. They can't keep up with demand for housing, and cheap land is getting scarce so they can't expand supply.
I totally disagree with your thinking on the matter. Minds are pliable....for if they were not companies would not spend billions on advertisement. Its called the power of suggestion. For decades people have been advertising and suggesting the worst about Detroit.....and its the suggesting that has made Detroit decline much more than it would normally have declined from purely economic factors.
If people around the country all of a sudden start hear of Detroit's "turn around" and "comeback", it will inspire curiosity and interest. That curiosity leads to increased visitors, increased conventions and can create the the type of energy and dollars that leads to tangible improvements. Those tangible improvements then creates EVIDENCE that people can see which then helps increase confidence, which in turns inspires more visitors and investments, in a snowball type of manner.
The thing that you seem not to understand or respect is the large role CONFIDENCE plays in our economic system. All the markets and the dollar are predicated upon confidence. One can "talk down" the economy even if all the "fundamentals" of the economy are strong. This is because so much of economics is behavioral science predicated upon human sentiment. During the Dot Com bubble, tech companies had huge IPO's and made billions, many of which had not even posted a profit, based upon confidence people had in the technology and the future of the technology.
The problem with the Detroit is/was the problem of the era.....and of the history of this nation. Many people back then, and to a lesser extent today, simply lack(ed) confidence in the new emerging demographic of the city. An economic entity cannot prosper to its full potential when over 2/3 of the wealth and income market lacks confidence in the entity. Lack of confidence from others can and does often create the self reinforced prophecy.
Examples of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy * You expect your new roommate to be shy so you don�t speak much to him after he moves in, and he therefore does seem shy * A coach expects his freshmen to be uncoordinated and unskilled so he does not play them often, and when he does they are rusty and do not perform well
* Your professor expects you to do well and she spends extra time with you preparing for the exam, so you get an A
When people think that a city will decline as a result of a rising demographic, then move from the city in mass out of fear of the decline and or the demographic, then the city declines as a result of all the people leaving.
Things that people do not hold confidence in does not get investment in. Its a simple as that. All the negative talk destroys confidence.
Last edited by Indentured Servant; 02-14-2014 at 05:31 PM..
I totally disagree with your thinking on the matter. Minds are pliable....for if they were not companies would not spend billions on advertisement. Its called the power of suggestion. For decades people have been advertising and suggesting the worst about Detroit.....and its the suggesting that has made Detroit decline much more than it would normally have declined from purely economic factors.
If people around the country all of a sudden start hear of Detroit's "turn around" and "comeback", it will inspire curiosity and interest. That curiosity leads to increased visitors, increased conventions and can create the the type of energy and dollars that leads to tangible improvements. Those tangible improvements then creates EVIDENCE that people can see which then helps increase confidence, which in turns inspires more visitors and investments, in a snowball type of manner.
The thing that you seem not to understand or respect is the large role CONFIDENCE plays in our economic system. All the markets and the dollar are predicated upon confidence. One can "talk down" the economy even if all the "fundamentals" of the economy are strong. This is because so much of economics is behavioral science predicated upon human sentiment. During the Dot Com bubble, tech companies had huge IPO's and made billions, many of which had not even posted a profit, based upon confidence people had in the technology and the future of the technology.
The problem with the Detroit is/was the problem of the era.....and of the history of this nation. Many people back then, and to a lesser extent today, simply lack(ed) confidence in the new emerging demographic of the city. An economic entity cannot prosper to its full potential when over 2/3 of the wealth and income market lacks confidence in the entity. Lack of confidence from others can and does often create the self reinforced prophecy.
Examples of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy * You expect your new roommate to be shy so you don�t speak much to him after he moves in, and he therefore does seem shy * A coach expects his freshmen to be uncoordinated and unskilled so he does not play them often, and when he does they are rusty and do not perform well
* Your professor expects you to do well and she spends extra time with you preparing for the exam, so you get an A
When people think that a city will decline as a result of a rising demographic, then move from the city in mass out of fear of the decline and or the demographic, then the city declines as a result of all the people leaving.
Things that people do not hold confidence in does not get investment in. Its a simple as that. All the negative talk destroys confidence.
We're not talking about the stock market or a commodities market. In fact, your example of the dot com bust days is perfect. Unbridled (false) optimism not grounded in truth. And I'm not really talking about drawing visitors.
You can certainly, as a city, present a better picture of yourself to draw more visitors. You add stadiums and you renovate your convention center and you put on a big auto show and more and more people will come to check it out and spend some money. Bigger crowds downtown means people feel more safe and have more fun which then draws more events downtown and more people. How many of those people will then say "Hmmm, wish I owned a home over in that bombed out high tax area a couple of blocks away that I hate even driving through."
Attitude will not save a city like Detroit. Obviously a positive attitude and confidence does a lot. You can have a positive attitude and confidence going into a job interview and can bull**** your way into a job. But it's not going to take very long before people realize you don't really know what you're doing.
I'm talking about getting new residents and new business owners into the city. Those decisions takes months and years to come to fruition scouting out the perfect spot. In that year or two the city's confidence can ebb and flow, depending on what national publication writes the story about Detroit.
Obviously we're not going to agree on the solutions IndenturedServant. Or at least, you believe the city has done enough already to stage a comeback. I think they've barely scratched the surface on making the necessary changes to affect real change. Sorry, I know that sucks for the people who are in there fighting the hard fight to hear.
Although my guess is very few members here actually live in the "city" of Detroit. Like myself, we're all just spectators hoping for the best. The last thing I want people to think is that I'm another know-it-all from out of town who knows how to fix Detroit. My only point in all this is that I see something that I know is a major detriment (high taxes) and could be fixed with some political will power.
We're not talking about the stock market or a commodities market. In fact, your example of the dot com bust days is perfect. Unbridled (false) optimism not grounded in truth. And I'm not really talking about drawing visitors.
You can certainly, as a city, present a better picture of yourself to draw more visitors. You add stadiums and you renovate your convention center and you put on a big auto show and more and more people will come to check it out and spend some money. Bigger crowds downtown means people feel more safe and have more fun which then draws more events downtown and more people. How many of those people will then say "Hmmm, wish I owned a home over in that bombed out high tax area a couple of blocks away that I hate even driving through."
Attitude will not save a city like Detroit. Obviously a positive attitude and confidence does a lot. You can have a positive attitude and confidence going into a job interview and can bull**** your way into a job. But it's not going to take very long before people realize you don't really know what you're doing.
I'm talking about getting new residents and new business owners into the city. Those decisions takes months and years to come to fruition scouting out the perfect spot. In that year or two the city's confidence can ebb and flow, depending on what national publication writes the story about Detroit.
Obviously we're not going to agree on the solutions IndenturedServant. Or at least, you believe the city has done enough already to stage a comeback. I think they've barely scratched the surface on making the necessary changes to affect real change. Sorry, I know that sucks for the people who are in there fighting the hard fight to hear.
Although my guess is very few members here actually live in the "city" of Detroit. Like myself, we're all just spectators hoping for the best. The last thing I want people to think is that I'm another know-it-all from out of town who knows how to fix Detroit. My only point in all this is that I see something that I know is a major detriment (high taxes) and could be fixed with some political will power.
One of the reasons that the city looks so bad is due to the cities lack of finances. Increased activities in the city SHOULD, in theory, increase revenue into the city. The increased revenue into the city then helps to clean up or clear away the eye sores. That is the connection you seem to be missing. Drawing in people means drawing in more money which helps out cities revenues. That is why cities seek conventions and have convention and tourism industries.....because it brings in money to the city. In fact, tourism is a leading source of economic activity in many cities, which helps diversify their economies and helps create economic stability.
Here is another thing. People compartmentalize. The South Side of Chicago did not keep people from moving to the Gold Coast or constructing multitudes of upscale high rise condos and apartments near the lake front. The trend in constructing and living now is high density walk-ability. Such development can take place in the Detroit CBD and along the riverfront, once investors see a vibrancy and desirability of people wanting that. I could not disagree more with your thinking.
One of the reasons that the city looks so bad is due to the cities lack of finances. Increased activities in the city SHOULD, in theory, increase revenue into the city. The increased revenue into the city then helps to clean up or clear away the eye sores. That is the connection you seem to be missing. Drawing in people means drawing in more money which helps out cities revenues. That is why cities seek conventions and have convention and tourism industries.....because it brings in money to the city. In fact, tourism is a leading source of economic activity in many cities, which helps diversify their economies and helps create economic stability.
Here is another thing. People compartmentalize. The South Side of Chicago did not keep people from moving to the Gold Coast or constructing multitudes of upscale high rise condos and apartments near the lake front. The trend in constructing and living now is high density walk-ability. Such development can take place in the Detroit CBD and along the riverfront, once investors see a vibrancy and desirability of people wanting that. I could not disagree more with your thinking.
I didn't say those things can't happen. I think you're selectively reading what you want to read in this thread. I'm just glad the discussion is continuing.
A bit anecdotal but she's not the first person I've heard say this. Between car insurance and property taxes, Detroit is AS expensive as the coasts. Until this changes, no major transformation can take hold.
A bit anecdotal but she's not the first person I've heard say this. Between car insurance and property taxes, Detroit is AS expensive as the coasts. Until this changes, no major transformation can take hold.
She bought a house for $30k and it's assessed @ $100k, that's a problem that's eminently fixable - appeal your property taxes, to the state if necessary - If you bought it for $30k, it's worth $30k, and the taxes should be at that value. $4000 tax bill goes to under $1500.. (still way too high, but a lot more reasonable).
Next up - car insurance - the writer reveals that she's paying $261 per month, but also reveals that she's never owned a car before. Talk to your insurance guy about this one, but if you're an adult with no driving history (and no insurance for 3+ years), you automatically go into the same insurance "pool" as drunk drivers and drag-racers. And you get nicked hard for insurance. Even in rural Michigan.
So the "damage" in this case is primarily self-inflicted or easily fixable. As for the cost of her home insurance - that may well be due to the age & condition of the home, she could be over-insured, or her weak credit may be affecting things..
One of the biggest problems with everything being "online" right now, is that many people never get a chance to actually sit down at an agent's desk and ask some "what if" questions.. When I was shopping for insurance for my little bro's place, my agent revealed that inexpensive houses cost (alot!) more to insure in my market (Phoenix).. In his case, insuring his place at $100k was about double what it would cost to insure a $150k home.. the "best" and "cheapest" local provider wouldn't touch a "cheap" house..
I can't say that she's a "saavy" shopper, nor would I expect the world to "fix" things for those who won't do the footwork to straighten out (or at least understand, in the case of her insurance) errors.
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