Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
the s&p trades at 16x forward 12 month earnings vs 25x in 2000. we have been seeing record profits.
we had a tech bubble back in 2000. 14% of the s&p's earnings came from tech, and it jumped to 33%. today we are at 19%.
earnings expectations are far lower. we are looking at 9% anticipated earnings vs 17% in 2000
interest rates are far far lower today , 2000 we had the 3 month treasury at 5.9%. today it is .05%
the 10 year was at 6% vs 2.7% today
ipo's for first quarter were 11 billion with 63 new issues coming on board 1st quarter
2000 saw 115 new ipo's and 18 billion brought to market.
quite frankly i don't see it grossly over valued at all.
According to the stock market alone, yes. However there is house money in play. As I said before QE 1, 2 & 3 has kept interest rates low making the stock market the only game for investments. This is the problem, it isn't a NATURAL market. The tech bubble was a natural market that was just misguided. We have a bit of web 2.0 in a way with Groupon and other tech firms (Facebook is at least innovative enough to be different.) If we don't see the stocks fall too much after QE truly ends, I'll agree with your it's not grossly over valued. Right now though, it's just a plausible.
Sell high, and we're high!
Be a bit more defensive and stay diversified. Short term risks are higher.
Longer term I see further success.
IMO's of course.
Note: Homeowners have had ample time to lower their housing costs via low mortgage rates. Also, the ubiquitous baked-in-the-cake citizen subsidies will help deal with this monumental, necessary 'correction'.
The Fed has clearly stated that they will keep interest rates near zero through end of 2015, that is plenty of time for a MASSIVE bubble to build up in stocks and real estate. Not saying eventually things will not sustain as even now current valuations are in question with regard to fundamentals.
However, in real estate there is brisk demand from overseas investors. Property markets in other places look really questionable and relatively speaking the US seems safe which is why overseas money is flocking here.
43% of real estate transactions in Q1 2014 were all cash... 43%!!! Highly dysfunctional? or is it a new trend that is here to stay?
I think this a HUGE bubble...but there are many that just don't bother to look at the cost of everyday items and seem to realize it negates the "gains" you see in investments. Food items are up 20% since Jan 1 so that is in less than 6 months. Also, utilities and fuel prices on the rise....how do you get excited about stocks when the cost of living is not able to keep up with the gains made???
I just hope that the Cloward–Piven strategy is just a myth and this market bubble isn't a prelude to a bigger and badder market collapse then the one in 2008.
This "to big to fix" financial crash will permanently get rid of the middle class and establish only 2 economic classes.
The haves and the have nots and then our government will own the majority of us lock, stock, and barrel. Cloward
The houston housing market has the lowest inventory on record I believe I read the other day. If no new homes come on the market in 2 1/2 months there will be no homes for sale in houston. A sellers market is 6 months inventory or less in inventory
It's interesting how times change. 20 years ago, any dip was seen as a buying opportunity, and any sustained rise was regarded as an obvious and natural reflection of economic conditions. Today, any dip is viewed as Armageddon finally coming, a just and proper recompense for fundamental misallocations and mass stupidity; while any sustained rise is seen as a fluke, a bubble and a cruel ruse.
Today the Dow is approaching 17,000. I remember how in the early 1980s, nobody took seriously the notion that the Dow would ever break 1300. Yes, 1300. It was viewed as some natural barrier, like the speed of light, and any upward movement in that direction was a lurch towards frothy insanity. Investors were cowed by the 1970s. The future looked like one crisis after another, with rampant inflation, government meddling, a ridiculously intrusive Fed (Paul Volker was perhaps the most hated man in America), a teetering system and an enervated nation. Sound familiar?
No rally is eternal. Corrections are inevitable. Markets don't hit high after high after high, monotonically ascendant. But 20% food-price increase since January? A market propped up by nothing by shell-games and charlatans' machinations? Really?
this is why you can pick almost any time frames in history and you understand why the small investor sucks at investing. mostly because they believe their own bull-sh*t.
all you had to do was nothing and with a long term perspective made a crap load of money doing nothing more than indexing. sure things roll back at times like night follows day but so what. if you think you are going to do better trying to get and in and out good luck to you.
Yes the stock market is on fire, but small caps struggle last week, while the Dow set records. I switch my small cap to mid cap.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Food items are up 20% since Jan 1 so that is in less than 6 months. Also, utilities and fuel prices on the rise....how do you get excited about stocks when the cost of living is not able to keep up with the gains made???
