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Old 02-23-2015, 10:16 PM
 
12,404 posts, read 9,225,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Human beings can do this. Why in the world would you believe that for some reason theres a scientific reason to stop automation from exceeding human capabilities?

So think about automation, there is a ton of parallel things going on. Vision and decision making with neural networks for example.

On the face of it your argument is foolish. It fails the sniff test. We have a very flawed system right now that does this sort of thing and much much more, its called human beings. And we're slow....very very slow highly parallel system.

You've constructed your argument very poorly.
It fails no such sniff test and is not based on poor construction, because the argument about human brain computation capacity relies on an assumption about how coarse-grained the data from neural spike trains can be while still carrying the necessary information. Until this assumption is justified, you cannot know whether any computer potentially in reach will even have the ability to emulate a human brain.

Nor do you have justification for thinking that any alternative means of AI which is not based on simulating the brain would in fact be as parallelizable as you would imagine by considering brain emulation or simulation.
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Old 02-23-2015, 11:13 PM
 
24,956 posts, read 11,649,274 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
It fails no such sniff test and is not based on poor construction, because the argument about human brain computation capacity relies on an assumption about how coarse-grained the data from neural spike trains can be while still carrying the necessary information. Until this assumption is justified, you cannot know whether any computer potentially in reach will even have the ability to emulate a human brain.

Nor do you have justification for thinking that any alternative means of AI which is not based on simulating the brain would in fact be as parallelizable as you would imagine by considering brain emulation or simulation.
Sigh. Really?

Neural spike trains are in the order of milliseconds apart. Thats an eternity. And that "assumption" is based upon things called facts.

Revealing cell assemblies at multiple levels of granularity
If your argument that neural spike trains granularity is higher then that, then I would argue that you should spend the time to disprove that.

Your argument is that for some unknown reason we can't replicate a human brains capabilities? Theres a ton of current research going on that indicates we will have no issue replicating a human.

What magical thing would prevent us from making something better then a human brain is beyond my comprehension. Its like you believe that theres something magical or unique thats unreplicable of a humans brain.
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Old 02-23-2015, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,170 posts, read 4,743,149 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
You are assuming that demand in the overall economy stays fixed. I think this view is a result of forgetting how human consumption can grow without bound.
I'm certainly not assuming demand stays fixed. Where did you get that idea?

But human consumption cannot "grow without bound" since there are natural resource limitations. This is another reason why consumer-capitalist model will disappear when it is no longer the most efficient way for the rich to get what they want. The resources that are available can serve a smaller population.

Quote:
Even if you could replace a large amount of labor with robots, then consumer demand would still increase enough to keep full employment.
Only if consumer-capitalism is still used *and* the wealth increase from the higher productivity is shared with consumers. This will not happen naturally when many workers become unemployable. It hasn't even been happening for the last few decades, though for other reasons.

Quote:
And there is no reason to bring IQ scores into the discussion - in fact, there is no evidence that there is even a relation between the "IQ score" you need for a job and its automatability.
People greater talent and skills will still last longer in the job market because they can more easily shift to another field. The places where they can successfully compete are more numerous.
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Old 02-23-2015, 11:55 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,461,468 times
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This will displace an enormous amount of jobs, and, quite frankly, create sustained unemployment levels not seen in decades. But it will occur, as there simply is no logical reason not to utilize every tool to improve efficiency and, with it, operating profits.

We were covered well in prior periods of rapid change as wants created more jobs than technology wiped out, but the wants that do not exist yet can likely be produced, via technology, barely creating a ripple of new jobs, while automation will yes, wipe out most of our top quantity types of 2015's jobs.
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Old 02-24-2015, 01:04 AM
 
Location: "Silicon Valley" (part of San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA)
3,691 posts, read 2,650,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
I am not convinced. [...]
Professionals, doctors, lawyers? Suffice it to say the robots have only taken on small bits and pieces of the job. Human judgment will be needed for a long time to come - probably at least another 50-100 years.
Yes, moral judgement is key here. For example, I would want a sentient being with emotions to make the decision to take a human life NOT a machine.

It may one day be possible to have a sentient software program, but then that software program would have the same rights as other sentient beings: life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. You would have to pay it, let it buy things, let it vote, etc. So there's actually a strong incentive to not write such a program. Why do that when we already have humans?

This reminds me of the book Higher Education by Jerry Pournelle. A guy gets kicked out of high school and finds there are no jobs on earth for people who don't have a BS, because robots are doing all of the manual labor. He finds that humans are needed to make judgement calls in space, such as the mining of asteroids, and due to the speed of light, the humans have to be local to the asteroids (otherwise you would wait an hour for the signal to reach Earth at the speed of light). So he gets a crash course with the equivilent of a BS in Physics and Engineering, and goes off to asteroid belt on a nuclear fission rocket and has all kinds of awesome adventures.

That's the future. We expand into space. And the automation will need human oversight. The human oversight will have to be local due to the speed of light. Plus humans will be present because they will be populating the solar system. Terraforming Mars, Terraforming Venus (or possibly just living in the clouds of venus, which have earth air pressure and temperature, and Earth's atmosphere is buoyant there), living in the Jovian and Saturnian moons, etc.
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Old 02-24-2015, 01:05 AM
 
Location: "Silicon Valley" (part of San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA)
3,691 posts, read 2,650,963 times
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Anyway if robots do all the mechanical labor that just means that a BS will have the value that a high school diploma does now. And it will be free to get one.
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Old 02-24-2015, 02:19 AM
 
Location: U.S.A., Earth
4,348 posts, read 2,620,091 times
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Given the strike and how some folks have argued for the west coast port workers to be automated, some of them sound like they're in trouble. OTOH, it's never THAT straightforward and simple.
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Old 02-24-2015, 02:33 AM
 
Location: Telecommutes from Northern AZ
1,032 posts, read 1,027,222 times
Reputation: 1394
Some say the "planners" are already on this. They predict that we are going to see infertility rates skyrocketing in the coming years. The "humane" option. GMO chips anyone? How about another vaccine shot? Glass of water? Why is it so grey out today...

But what do those conspiracy types know? I wonder.
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Old 02-24-2015, 03:00 AM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 2,955,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
This would lead not to automation, but to war. As we know from history, increasing concentration of power and wealth, if kept unchecked, inevitably leads to war. And this is true regardless of whether it is a result of supply and demand, or is a result of changing political conditions.
Will the war be fought by robots? Robots, controlled by the wealthy elite, at war with desperate humans who have nothing but their own numbers and primitive weapons? What if the robots win? Is that how the population is likely to be reduced to the level considered optimal for the wealthy elite? 99% of the human race will die in a war against robots, the robots will win, and their wealthy masters will then consider most of the problems of the world solved? No more overpopulation, no more global warming caused by too many people and their factories and vehicles polluting too much, no more overcrowded roads and malls, no more polluted rivers, lakes, and oceans, no more massive deforestation, none of those problems, but just paradise on Earth for the survivors, the wealthy elite?
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Old 02-24-2015, 03:04 AM
 
Location: Texas Hill Country
8,912 posts, read 4,850,973 times
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Right now, I'm at my job that I get to be at 24/7, year around, even when the place is officially closed.......as it is now due to cold weather.

Despite that there are lots of automatic systems here and elsewhere, they still need to be watched by someone.

Somewhere along the line, one needs the human backup.

Like Major West said, "If you wake up and find me at the controls, you know you are in trouble.".

Or Dallas in the novelization of Alien: "Come off it, Ripley! That's why we are on this bigger machine in the first place! It becomes our problem when the machines can't handle it!".
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