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Productivity is cyclical over long periods of time. China had periods of great prosperity and periods of decline as will the US.
So your prediction is that in some point over a long period of time that you can't specify the productivity of the United States will decrease for reasons that you can't specify, because China has had periods of decline over it's 4000+ year history.
Roman empire made great strides and then crumbled in around 400 B.C. the middle east experienced a golden age from year 600 to 1200 while Europeans were carving crosses on foreheads to cure diseases. The qing dynasty began mid 1600 and crashed in early 1900 resulting in civil wars and political instability until communist party won against the KMT party. World gdp isnt the same as economic prosperity of specific regions. Countries definitely go through long term economic cycles and U.S. is no exception.
How much parsing do you need? Truth is usually elegant in it's simplicity.
Not apparently to your eyes. If you cannot discern the vast gulfs of difference between the intents and policies of current Republicans and Democrats, there is simply no helping you. The "curse them both" approach is a little more than a supercilious pile of pretense.
World gdp isnt the same as economic prosperity of specific regions. Countries definitely go through long term economic cycles and U.S. is no exception.
The per-industrial cyclical ups and downs in productivity were tiny compared to what has happened since industrialization.
What do you think causes productivity increases (or decreases), anyway? Have any developed countries experienced protracted declines in productivity in the last 200 years? Even getting devastated by war is a momentary blip.
Tell that to the millions upon millions of dead Chinese and the enormous amount of people who fled from China to surrounding areas. Tell that to the Romans who were raped and killed by Germanic barbarians.
These declines are quick..but devastating.
The term 'developed' is a facade. The group of 'developed' countries have changed and will continue to change.
Answer: 2008! The entire economic system of America is operating artificially an illusion of growth
and debt recovery. As a investor I'm not celebrating, not even a doomsdayer. All the maps, GNP and all indicators ( only exception natural gas and oil segments) are going to collapse by 2016 and although I was being semi- cute digressing to 2008 , we will begin a life altering decline in the Fall of 2015! If you STOP insisting on our cash debt 19 trillion and do a amortization of many segments of entitlements we are possibly over 200 trillion ( extremely difficult math as collecting all influenced data isn't available). So for that reason the 200 trillion is possibly + 3% or - 30%. Many economists say140 trillion others conservative guestimates 85 trillion . We have resources of 126 trillion so based on extremes we are either toast or getting toasted.
You've been reading too many doomsday novels. I was 17 in 1974 and that gas shortage, sugar shortage and market crash was scary. Necessities were hard to come by. One TV wag even created a run on toilet paper by joking of a shortage. National Lampoon ran an issue on shortages, claiming a shortage of styptic pencils (to stop shaving bleeding cuts). Ditto 1979, without the fun of a sugar shortage or comedian-generated shortage. Both had ripping inflation and surging unemployment. 2008 was a "gentleman's depression" and a Sunday school picnic by comparison with 1974 and 1979.
Chicken Little, it's OK, the sky is not falling, even with a feckless traitor as President. Relax.
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