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Per the futurists of years gone by, cars would have been a thing of the past by now, and we would be getting much of our water from the canals on Mars. It's amazing how consistently wrong people's suspicions of the future typically turn out to be.
Its hard to extrapolate long term changes-ie 50+ years.
Its a LOT easier to peer into a decade or two decades from now, and certain technologies have proven very predictable.
Its also amazing how many predictions are right......
When robotics becomes sufficiently advanced (ie nearly as smart as a human), the number of tasks where a human has a competitive advantage declines. A large and growing % of the population will be functionally unemployable. There won't be any task they can perform to earn a living wage. This hasn't happen yet, but likely will be a serious issue within a couple decades.
A couple of decades? Within the next 10 years a $1,000 computer will have more memory and processing power then the average human being.
A couple of decades? Within the next 10 years a $1,000 computer will have more memory and processing power then the average human being.
Source? I think that's more like 30 years away.
They don't need to be that smart to make many people unemployable though. Other considerations are the pace of investment, research, and development of the hardware and software. And how much societal resistance slows down progress.
I don't expect a meaningful revolt, but I do expect a messy and long transition that has nothing to do with the tech. Even with very effective propaganda and surveillance, a change of this magnitude isn't going to be easy for the masses to absorb.
PC processing power has almost risen to mouse level. Mice have trouble with language also.
Once the processing power is sufficient, the software will soon follow.
Process power means nothing. The meat of AI is to get it to think for itself and to solve problems, which is a whole different ball game!
Think of processing power as horse power in cars. You can built a car with the world's greatest horse power, it is still never going to turn into a transformer with its own thoughts and problem-solving ability. For that, you need technologies that we haven't invented yet.
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Originally Posted by rruff
Once the processing power is sufficient, the software will soon follow.
You don't get it. Software is NOT the answer if you're going to built an independent robot that can replace humans. It's like ancient people invented wheels and think soon they can fly if they can just get the wheels to spin fast enough and take off with great momentum.
If you have to rely on software, your technology will NEVER be as smart as humans. For one, we need humans to write software. If your software-driven army takes off, it only means we will need to hire many, many more software developers to keep the army working. So whatever doomsday you have in mind will never happen for an economy that relies on software because the humans in your scenario are irreplacement and the most valuable and important asset in the chain.
^ I agree with the above. I think to have AI we have to have a totally different architecture of computing - I mean down the very foundational level different.
The 0:1 calculations that form the building blocks of our computing tech can probably never be used to even approximate intelligence.
Now, can the processing power be used to make 1 person be able to do the jobs of 50? Yes, that could happen.
It's like ancient people invented wheels and think soon they can fly if they can just get the wheels to spin fast enough and take off with great momentum.
Your analogies make no sense.
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If you have to rely on software, your technology will NEVER be as smart as humans. For one, we need humans to write software.
Software will be basic coding that allows the machines to try different options to acheive goals and to monitor their success. They learn how to do whatever it is you want them to do. Not much different than how humans learn to do things. Except the machines will be a lot quicker, and once one of them gets it, all the other machines will get it too.
Software will be basic coding that allows the machines to try different options to acheive goals and to monitor their success. They learn how to do whatever it is you want them to do. Not much different than how humans learn to do things. Except the machines will be a lot quicker, and once one of them gets it, all the other machines will get it too.
Err.. That's not how AI works. It's also not the typical way humans create intellectual property, discounting Thomas Edison trying things to invent the light bulb.
There isn't any AI. Yet. Because the hardware isn't sufficiently advanced.
That is how humans learn from infancy, and that is how computers will learn. The hardware and basic algorithms that allow trial and error in pursuit of a goal. When success is achieved store the code, then alter the parameters and do it again. Only now it will be from a greater experience base. Eventually the robot will have successful responses to a vast range of situations. New robots that are similar but not precisely the same can be loaded with the learned responses from the start. Same with robots that are put in novel situations or presented with new goals.
There will be lots of coding from humans in the beginning to create the rules and basic system and optimize this process, but even then most of the code will write itself. And once the bots get as smart as humans, there will be no need for human intervention.
I have read that book. It makes alot of good points but overall it is still highly conceptual. To answer your question though. It just means rich parents will continue to have a greater and greater effect on your life
Try reading, "Capital in the 21st century" by Thomas Piketty. Its much more concrete
Software will be basic coding that allows the machines to try different options to acheive goals and to monitor their success. They learn how to do whatever it is you want them to do. Not much different than how humans learn to do things. Except the machines will be a lot quicker, and once one of them gets it, all the other machines will get it too.
The algorithm you described is not achievable with today's technology. Period.
Software doesn't learn. It only does what the humans program it to do. It's the humans who learn and then transfer the knowledge to the software. It doesn't sound like you are a very technical person, because at the end of the day, human brains are what drives software. Think of software as the extension of the human minds and it cannot exist without the later. As long as you're relying on software, you must also rely on humans. Sorry, but that's basically is the rule.
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Originally Posted by rruff
They learn how to do whatever it is you want them to do. Not much different than how humans learn to do things.
It's easy to say, "They learn...." Just as it's easy to say, "Human can learn to fly...."
In reality, having a machine learns by itself is impossible given the technology and the limited knowledge that we have.
I think what confused you is that some writers talk of a computer like Big Blue "learning.....", in reality, it doesn't actually learns but is just capturing data and interpreting it according to what the humans had programmed into algorithm ahead of time. It doesn't know how to interpret the data without the humans anticipation on what data would be captured and how to interpret it. So it doesn't actually knows how to learn, it still has to relies 100% on humans to supply the knowledge.
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