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Old 02-09-2016, 09:30 AM
 
4,369 posts, read 3,725,536 times
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I'd LOVE to buy a home in Sacramento for 150k that's in good shape! Most of your doom and gloom predictions about the stock market make me giddy too since I spend 90-95% of my after tax income on investing/saving! It's better than shopping at the thrift store.
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Old 02-09-2016, 11:33 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,386,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
I'd LOVE to buy a home in Sacramento for 150k that's in good shape! Most of your doom and gloom predictions about the stock market make me giddy too since I spend 90-95% of my after tax income on investing/saving! It's better than shopping at the thrift store.
We will see. The FED's printing press does wonders for keeping bubbles inflated. Short term it is hard to bet against it, but long term...


Get enough of a backslide going and the FED's printing press may not be able to keep up. Slow stagnant decline, that is a reasonable middle ground.


My split is 35% chance of slow decline, 65% chance of crash.
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Old 02-09-2016, 12:15 PM
 
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Hope they are right.

I'm planning to buy a place in Italy so bears please hurry
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Old 02-09-2016, 01:26 PM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,593,615 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
I'd LOVE to buy a home in Sacramento for 150k that's in good shape! Most of your doom and gloom predictions about the stock market make me giddy too since I spend 90-95% of my after tax income on investing/saving! It's better than shopping at the thrift store.
This type of price crash isn't going to happen unless the city becomes less desirable, presumably by losing a large fraction of its jobs. A drop to 350k or 300k, sure. Not 150k. If they would remove the restrictions on building and allow cheap construction, maybe it could be pushed to a more natural level (~250k?). But there seems to be little to no political action in that direction now or in the foreseeable future.


I say rent and invest the difference.
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Old 02-09-2016, 07:53 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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$150k was the price before 2000. I doubt it ever get that low.
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Old 02-09-2016, 08:49 PM
 
Location: C-U metro
1,368 posts, read 3,218,647 times
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You have too many zoning and eco-weenie regulations in Sacramento to increase the housing stock enough to drop prices in Sacramento that far. I agree with other posters that you could see 250k to 300k.

We are in inning 1 of the second dot.com bust. Cubicle manufacturers are reporting that sales have fallen dramatically (few new offices) and the tech IPO market has slammed shut. People are still getting some angel investors for their copy-cat-aps (think letgo v. wallapop v. ebay v. good-ol-craigslist). The adds, particularly wallapop, smell like the pets.com puppet. It's going to be ugly.
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Old 02-09-2016, 08:51 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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The tech companies have lots of cash still. They are one shiny spot for the economy. The tech stocks have come down but that may not translate to lay offs.
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Old 02-10-2016, 12:07 AM
 
4,369 posts, read 3,725,536 times
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Originally Posted by flyingcat2k View Post
You have too many zoning and eco-weenie regulations in Sacramento to increase the housing stock enough to drop prices in Sacramento that far. I agree with other posters that you could see 250k to 300k.

We are in inning 1 of the second dot.com bust. Cubicle manufacturers are reporting that sales have fallen dramatically (few new offices) and the tech IPO market has slammed shut. People are still getting some angel investors for their copy-cat-aps (think letgo v. wallapop v. ebay v. good-ol-craigslist). The adds, particularly wallapop, smell like the pets.com puppet. It's going to be ugly.
They already are at 250k. Are you thinking about the Bay Area? It was 150k in 2011.
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Old 02-10-2016, 04:01 AM
 
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Why folks think big crashes in assets happen in vacuums escapes me. All big crashes in anything follow through with job loss and pay cuts usually leaving things worse then they were for working folks
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Old 02-10-2016, 05:56 AM
 
18,549 posts, read 15,593,615 times
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Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
They already are at 250k. Are you thinking about the Bay Area? It was 150k in 2011.
Suburbs or downtown?
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