Leave it to Forbes (which hasn't been relevant for 70 years) to muck everything up.
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
1. An unemployment rate of 10.2% is worse than the nadir during the Great Recesseion.
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The causal factors are different. Too bad the idiot Sherman isn't smart enough to figure that out.
There's a huge difference between government shutting down jobs and jobs being lost for other reasons.
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
2. The job growth rate has significantly slowed and, without fiscal stimulus, could fall further.
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And, pray tell, what is the job growth rate?
When the US Census Bureau conducts the monthly CPS (Current Population Survey) it does not distinguish between people returning to work and new jobs that never before existed.
How stupid is Sherman not to know that?
For the record, the CPS does ask if you have been recalled from lay-off, but BLS does not maintain data on recalls. You're simply labeled as "employed."
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
3.Unemployment among Whites was 9.2%. For Blacks, 14.6%. Asian, 12.0%. Hispanics, 12.9%. Adult women’s unemployment of 10.5% is heavier than the 9.4% of men. There are some huge disparities, and probably perceptions, of impact.
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Well, gosh, what businesses were heavily impacted by the government-mandated closures?
That would be restaurant, bars, retail and hospitality where women and Blacks are heavily employed.
Again, how stupid is Sherman not to know that?
Does Sherman think that the government should have closed manufacturing facilities?
Here's Sherman running government:
We're shutting down your factory in order to make the number of unemployed men equal to the number of unemployed women and everyone can feel good about themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
4.The number out of work from 15 to 26 weeks shot up from 1.9 million in June to almost 6.5 million in July (increase of 4.6 million). The number unemployed from 5 to 14 weeks dropped from 11.5 million to 5.2 million (decrease of 6.3 million). That suggests the majority moved to being out of work for even longer—at least four months. (How well would most people do if out of work for that long?)
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Sherman lied.
The percentage of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more was 18.7% in January 2020 and 19.1% in February 2020.
It was 11.9% in August up from 9.3% in July.
The point being that 11.9% is clearly better than 19.1%.
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
5.The number of unemployed is still 10.5 million higher than in February.
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According to the CPS, there were 158,017,000 employed in February. There are now 147,224,000 unemployed.
That's actually 10.7 Million.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
6. About a third of the additional jobs came in leisure and hospitality, and those are the ones likely to get hit hard again as big states that have seen virus resurgence find themselves having to reclose businesses.
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Those are not "additional" jobs. Those are employees being recalled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
7. The broader U-6 measure of unemployment, which includes such people as those working part-time but not of their volition and people who have given up, is at 16.5%.
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The number of persons discouraged over job prospects decreased from 701,000 in July to 551,000 in August (See LNU05026645).
The number of persons working part-time due to slack work decreased from 7,280,000 in July to 6,106,000 in August (See LNU02032196).
Shocking how someone can get it so wrong.
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
8.There were about as many people who had permanently lost jobs in both months, so no increase, but also no decline.
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That information cannot be determined from the data.
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Originally Posted by jonbenson
9. People who usually work part-time increased by 803,000 to 24.0 million.
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The number who usually work part-time was 23,294,000 in July and 23,605,000 in August which is not 800,000+.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
10.The household survey that establishes unemployment rates had a response rate of 67%—up a bit from June but still well off the average 83% for 12 months before the pandemic. When response rates significantly drop, chances are good that results are less accurate.
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I would not disagree, which is why we examine the CES (Current Employer Survey) which consistently gets 98%+ response.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
11. Many people were categorized as on temporary layoff rather than unemployed. Reclassifying them as out of work would mean official unemployment more than 11%.
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False.
There is no category for "temporary lay-off."
The determination as to whether one is "unemployed" is based on the definition of "unemployed" for which
all of the following must be
true:
1) You must be available to work; and
2) You must want to work; and
3) You must have sought work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey.
A retiree who is available to work but does not want to work is Not in Labor Force.
A woman who wants to work but is not available to work because she is attending school, or caring for family is Not in Labor Force.
A man who is available to work and wants to work but has not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey is Not in Labor Force.
It's not Nuclear Physics in spite of what Sherman thinks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
12.Department of Labor unemployment insurance (UI) statistics show that as of July 18, 31.3 million people were claiming UI, compared to 30.8 million the previous week.
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Not relevant. States set the rules for eligibility for unemployment benefits for their State, and not other States or the entire US and the rules vary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
13.The BLS count says that 16.3 million are unemployed, or 14.5 million fewer than the ones getting UI.
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Again, not relevant.
States require persons to be unemployed for 2-4 weeks before they may apply for benefits.
When an employee is laid off, some States require the lay-off be 4-6 weeks before you can apply for benefits.
Also, with respect to lay-offs, some States require the lay-off period to be anticipated to exceed 30-90 days.
Nearly all States are overwhelmed with unemployment claims and there are extreme delays in awarding benefits, so UI data is not even worth looking at, because the data is inaccurate.