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Is the entire crust made up a of petroleum or something? I just cant believe we have used so much so far, yet can still find more.
I am not saying oil will peak or not. I just surprised we have that much to begin with and still have some left. We use it for everything.
Ask most geophysicists, pet. engineers etc. and they'll tell you there is more oil than there should be. I'm not an abiotic believer yet but I'm starting to consider that either the abiotic guys are somehow right or mainstream modeling techniques are way, way off at least much of the time. My favorite long shot theory is that there was much decaying life on proto-Earth pre-Theia impact and somehow much of that pre-oil gunk survived into what became Earth - ergo we have more oil than we should.
East Texas - according to a long line of always wrong "experts' often anti-oil types who are usually liars - but many real pros too - should have played out during WWII (we won WWII in great part because of East Texas), after WWII, in the '50s, '60s.........last I read there's an estimated 1.5-2.0 billion barrels left, which means there is likely 3 or 5 or 10.
Same with Ghawar on a more grand scale. A long legion of experts have called for Ghawar's demise......I read the other week Aramco believes ~30 billion barrels of mostly recoverables remain. Which means there's probably 90 or 150 left.
I recently watched some stupid documentary about Dubai from 2007. The narrator explained they were trying to diversify their economy because the UAE would run out of oil by 2015.
Fast-forward to 2020 and not only have they not run out of oil but their output was 15% higher last year than it was in 2007.
Repeat that over and over across much of the producing world.
I just surprised we have that much to begin with and still have some left. We use it for everything.
The earth has had life since 3.5B years ago. So there is a lot of decomposed organic matter particularly from sea algae. It's just a matter of it being buried too deep due to tectonic plate shifts.
There is no substitute for oil. No other energy source available is so dense, transportable, versatile, and convenient. We're heading for a catabolic collapse that will make the Bronze Age Collapse look like the proverbial Sunday school picnic...
It can be prevented and mitigated with proper population planning and efficiency upgrades. But there is no political will for either of those, just vague un-actionable climate accords.
We've entered into the terminal stages of oil depletion...
Oil discoveries peaked in the 60s... We are burning oil at a rate many times faster than we are discovering it. The world has been thoroughly explored over the last 130 years, there are no Ghawars left waiting to be found.
50 years? More like 5-10.
Global oil production has very likely already peaked.
The global financial system requires perpetual growth. Without oil production increases, further growth is not possible. Oil is the economy.
All paper assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, fiat currencies) derive their value from the expectation of perpetual future growth. When that growth is no longer possible due to peak oil, most paper assets will see their value collapse, and be worth next to nothing.
Technology doesn't produce energy, it devours it
Your entire thesis and nearly all supporting claims is/are crap. Production did peak in late 2018 but because of demand side issues not depletion.
Oil and gas demand will peak sometime between 2030 and 2050......my money is on 2050 but I'm running my business predicated on 2035. Without any question we have plenty of oil and gas to meet that peak and still produce enough afterwards to meet specialty chemical, Pharma etc. needs.
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I'm not quite sure why you are so hellbent to make a fool of yourself. Every single wellhead related economic claim I've seen you post here has been totally wrong. Have a little pride and step into the sunshine of honesty and decency. Your $12 million dollar rig cost yielding $2 million in production sample the other week being my favorite. The outright lies about per-well production curves/depletion being another.
I'm not quite sure why you are so hellbent to make a fool of yourself. Every single wellhead related economic claim I've seen you post here has been totally wrong. Have a little pride and step into the sunshine of honesty and decency. Your $12 million dollar rig cost yielding $2 million in production sample the other week being my favorite. The outright lies about per-well production curves/depletion being another.
You assume oil companies Financial statements are 100% trustable and reliable to be transparent about the metrics that actually matter.
We are playing chess, not checkers with the elites here. Creative accounting is the snake oil of the 21st century. Pun intended...
The problem is not the quantity but how much capital and technology it takes to get it, and the environmental impact.
There could be enough oil to last 1 million years,it doesn't matter if it's too costly to get to.
Realistically we are only concerned with the next 15-30 years. Just about everything I've seen from you about costs and depletion is wrong.
In my part of the world well rates are improving not faltering. Per your economic peak logic we have peaked per $40 bbl. but certainly not $60 and in my case not $50.
Your entire thesis and nearly all supporting claims is/are crap. Production did peak in late 2018 but because of demand side issues not depletion.
Oil and gas demand will peak sometime between 2030 and 2050......my money is on 2050 but I'm running my business predicated on 2035. Without any question we have plenty of oil and gas to meet that peak and still produce enough afterwards to meet specialty chemical, Pharma etc. needs.
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I'm not quite sure why you are so hellbent to make a fool of yourself. Every single wellhead related economic claim I've seen you post here has been totally wrong. Have a little pride and step into the sunshine of honesty and decency. Your $12 million dollar rig cost yielding $2 million in production sample the other week being my favorite. The outright lies about per-well production curves/depletion being another.
Peak oil is due to depletion, no other reason. Nature has created more-or-less 3T barrels of oil, over billions of years.
Man has burnt through more than half in just 160 years.
Our civilization has been in a vicious campaign to destroy all fossil fuel reserves in the quickest way possible, for 250+ years, for the sake of "growth."
In a hyper complex, hi tech global economy, populated by billions of people consuming voraciously, needing to replace their cars, phones, computers, etc every so many years, "peak oil demand" will never be reached.
Realistically we are only concerned with the next 15-30 years. Just about everything I've seen from you about costs and depletion is wrong.
In my part of the world well rates are improving not faltering. Per your economic peak logic we have peaked per $40 bbl. but certainly not $60 and in my case not $50.
To use your own point here - Very easy to hide inefficiencies when demand is down since 2018.
Your time horizon is another problem. My nephew is 5 this year so he potentially has the next 80 years to worry about.
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